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Race Profiling stats updated w/e 14/2/16

0(3)/10 -10pt loss betfair SP to straight win (+0.02pts as advised play) before 5%

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Race Profiling stats updated w/e 19/11/17

0(0)/2 -2pt loss to betfair SP

4 comments

  1. Hi Gary. I am trying to look for stats that show how Rons recommended staking has performed this year and last year. Can you give me the link as I cant find it. Also with regard to race profilling. I am clearly misunderstanding this as to my mind the results are the same week in week out – ie 0(3)/10 -10pt loss betfair SP to straight win (+0.02pts as advised play) before 5%. I cant make head not tail of this – sorry! x

    • There hasn’t been much movement on the Profiling front, although that will change for Cheltenham, and us much the same through the flat season, wheer only the big festivals see a regular post. Other than that we rely on the odd big race to get the profiling treatment, so you haven’t missed much!

      As for Ron’s plays, I may look to do them again. There is some difficulty with that though. Ron’s opinion may change through the day after the ratings have gone out in that the going may change and alter the ratings, his suggested play may be a NR and he either replaces it with something else, or nothing, and we don’t know, unless mention is made of it in the following day’s newsletter

      As for the staking, as these arfen’t tips, I have no idea of the point range. We know October Rules is the quoted minimum play, but is that 1pt? 1/2 pt? 1/4? And if it is a decent amount is that 5pt stake? 10pt?

      if I record though, it is always to 1pt and to SP which is the price that everyone can get.

      In tha past, a few years ago, I did try to compare, for the old version of the website a comparison of top rated and Ron’s 20/80 play. I compared them as striaght win, E/W and 20/80, and, at the time, blind top rated play won across all three criteria, with the strsight win best. no guarantee for the future though

      But i think it is worth comparing it to other stats so I shall try to cover them in future

  2. Thanks Gary. It is just anyone considering the service may find it hard to quantify how good it is as there is no objective criteria to assess its performance but I appreciate what you are up against when you are trying to compile stats though

    • I think there are a couple of points of interest here, especially with the attempt to draw new subscribers, especially as many may be low stake casual bettors and weekend players. I think the overall performance of top rated is vital, be it straight win, E/W or 20/80 plays. In tha past, there have been notable successes like with the flat season a few years ago.

      I know Ron likes the dutch although in the past, even with the old site and forum, pretty much nobody could make a profit from it at level stakes and especially not playing every race, with an avg SR over a few seasons in both codes of about 34-35%. Selectivity is the key, be it ron’s options or blind top 3 dutched

      I may stick to recording on going top 3 in future. I know Ron looks to the top 6, but to my mind, that is meaningless with so many 7, 8 or 9 runner races. Top 3 seems obvious, and I think the selective criteria for exotics is notable so far

      But clearly, as these aren’t tips but ratings, most newbies will be reliant on Ron’s advice and play. The problem is always the variables after the ratings go out and people go to work, as we don’t have access to full on going updates and rating revision, hence the sometimes uncertain nature of a play and conviction behind it. I personally think I should go back to recording but with a disclaimer that these are recorded to level stakes but are recorded prior to any changes, ie I record from the email and would ignore any revision that Ron would mention in the following day’s email

      The other option is then to look to the highest rated or highest with symbol if there are any NR’s coming into play. As ever, without people like yourself posong questions, I have no idea what people are looking for in a strategy, either by way of confirmation of some recent success or an angle they think can be exploited

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