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The Ladbroke Hurdle Profiling 17/12/15

Ron RobinsonAlways a cracking good, competitive race that can take a fair bit of sorting out. However, last year we were writing our a nice cheque for £150 made payable to Richard, who had won a free £10 bet on my top rated horse in that race, having won our Podcast competition.

These were my figures for last season’s Ladbroke Hurdle:

ASCOT 3-30

T* – BAYAN….+15 – WON 14/1
* – ACTIVIAL….+15 – 3RD 7/1

* – SHELFORD….+10
FOXCUB….+8
COOL MACAVITY….+8
* – BALLYGLASHEEN….+8
BALGARRY….-4
* – GARDE LE VICTOIRE….-5
* – GOODWOOD MIRAGE….-6
* – PINE CREEK….-7
T – CLONDAW WARRIOR….-10
* – SWING BOWLER….-11
HELLO GEORGE….-14
JEBRIL….-29
GASSIN GOLF….-35
MINELLAFORLEISURE….-40
T – SEA BEAT….-40
T – PYROMANIAC….-40

MY PLAY – My top rated has actually been winking at me since I started prepping all the work for the weekend. Our Podcast competition winner for this weekend has £10 on at the best price I can find….I think we’ll beat SP!

I’m dutching my top three, going 20/80 BAYAN and having me those exotics.

BAYAN went in @ 14/1 and that will have most likely covered Richard’s Christmas dinner.

Obviously we’ll now know what top my figures until the day itself but we’ll see if profiling throws up something interesting.

I started this before final decs and come through and you’ll note the point at which I discover those non-runners, resulting in a short final shortlist!

I’m very much thinking we need a five or six year old on side. they have won seven of the last 10 renewals, those stats favouring 5-y-o’s, who have won five. They have actually provided two of the last four.

My first shortlist is made up of horses from that age grouping:

AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA
ALTIOR
CHAMPAGNE AT TARA
HURRICANE HOLLOW
JOLLY’S CRACKED IT
NOBLE INN
RAYVIN BLACK
RENNETI
SIGN OF A VICTORY
SONG LIGHT
SORT IT OUT
THREE KINGDOMS
VINCENZO MIO
WAXIES DARGLE

Knowing that eight of the last 10 winners had actually won or placed (in the first three home), on their latest outing I can remove several and we are left with:

AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA
ALTIOR
CHAMPAGNE AT TARA
HURRICANE HOLLOW
JOLLY’S CRACKED IT
NOBLE INN
RAYVIN BLACK
SORT IT OUT
VINCENZO MIO
WAXIES DARGLE

Getting there.

Favourites have a shocking record in this event. Only one of the last 10 have managed to get it’s head in front and only one other has placed over the 10 year period I’m working with.

Currently, JOLLY’S CRACKED IT is the Ladbrokes “jolly” @ 4/1 and I’m cutting him loose purely on the basis of his place on the tissue.

AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA
ALTIOR
CHAMPAGNE AT TARA
HURRICANE HOLLOW
JOLLY’S CRACKED IT
NOBLE INN
RAYVIN BLACK
SORT IT OUT
VINCENZO MIO
WAXIES DARGLE

From the point of view of their allocated weights it’s not obvious anything is with a favoured band over the last 10 years but, in the last five three have been going to post with less than 11st.

It’s not enough to have me using the eraser though and so I’m now looking at selecting those from that list, that were in their novice season last year.

HURRICANE HOLLOW – 14/1
RAYVIN BLACK – 25/1
VINCENZO MIO – 16/1

At those odds I can create a dutch to pay for a single play and my exotics.

I’m happier working with 5-y-o’s for those reasons mentioned earlier and it’s top and bottom of the trio.

In such a race I’m happy to go 2 x 20/80 but if you are looking for just one, perhaps HURRICANE HOLLOW is the one, based on trainer stats for this race.

Dan Skelton has saddled just two and produced a winner and a placed horse, whilst Paul Nicholls has saddled 12 and had just three place.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE – HURRICANE HOLLOW

Best of luck

Ron

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