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Today’s Free Rated Race 09/11/15

Ron RobinsonWe enjoyed a nice winner from the last free rated race…did anyone donate £1 to the Sensory Garden project?

The figures were again very good over the weekend but I myself abstained on Saturday due to the rains.

Sunday though, was different.

These were the figures and advice for yesterday:

FFOS LAS 2-05

* – BOBBLE BORU….+12 – WON 5/2
HUMBEL BEN….+12
MAGICAL MAN….+9
* – CAPILLA….+9
FLASH CRASH….+9
GOWANAUTHAT….-12

NOTES: Tony McCoy once said we have heavy ground…and then we have Ffos Las heavy ground. When they made the decision to build this course here they should have looked at how the ground eases when someone sneezes.

They, before yesterday, had seen 55mm of rain fall in four days. I imagine Botswana gets that much in an average year!

I have a Venetia William’s trained runner topping my figures, that has won on heavy….twice from six runs on it.

The only bet I’m having here is a straight win that one….and as you can probably imagine, it’s a “for interest” only size bet.

FFOS LAS 3-15

* – TOM BACH….+16
* – COPPER BIRCH….+9
NO THROUGH ROAD….-5
AS DE FER….-11
CONAS TAOI….-24
* – INCENTIVISE….-40

NOTES: My top one is 4-7 here, 2-3 on heavy ground and 2-6 at the trip. COPPER BIRCH is the only other runner having a tick in all three boxes and it’s a no brainer really. The other four runners have tried 14 times between them to win on heavy ground and found it impossible.

The fly in my ointment is CONAS TAOI. Never seen Ffos Las before or raced on heavy…crikey, is he in for a treat!

DUTCH – TOM BACH, COPPER BIRCH
20/80 – TOM BACH
EXOTIC – TOM BACH, CPPPER BIRCH

FFOS LAS 3-50

* – COUNT GUIDO DEIRO….+12 – 2ND 7/2
* – MOLLY’S A DIVA….+11 – WON 6/1

* – AMERICAN LIFE….+9
* – BEREA BORU….+9
* – FISHING BRIDGE….+/-0
ALLEZ VIC….-13
MINELLA ON LINE….-21
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY….-24
HIGH COUNSEL….-40

NOTES: UNOWHATIMEANHARRY is 0-5 on heavy, 0-2 at there trip. Harry is going to have had to have worked the oracle on him….which he’s obviously well capable of doing!

We have two stand out horses here. BEARA BORU is unbeaten on heavy…2-2….is 2-5 here and 1-4 at the trip. MOLLY’S A DIVA is 2-5 on heavy, 2-4 at Ffos Las and 1-5 at the trip.

It’s that pair plus my top rated in my play. COUNT GUIDO DEIRO is 2-3 on heavy and 1-4 at the trip but. having never raced at Ffos Las before and me feeling this track is unique in every sense, I will have MOLLY’S A DIVA as my solo play.

DUTCH – COUNT GUIDO DEIRO, MOLLY’S A DIVA, BEARA BORU
20/80 – MOLLY’S A DIVA
EXOTICS – COUNT GUIDO DEIRO, MOLLY’S A DIVA, BEARA BORU

SANDOWN 3-00

RED DEVIL STAR….+1
H – RYEOLLIAN….-1
* – CROOKSTOWN….-8
JEANPASCAL….-10
WINNER MASSAGOT….-11
SONGSMITH….-22
T* – CAPE CASTER….-35
PRAIRIE TOWN….-40
FULL BLAST….-40

NOTES: Only SONGSMITH has raced here previously and went home empty handed. Only two have managed to win on the ground as forecast for today and they are both 1-3 on it.

Between them they have raced 44 times over this trip and we have nine victories…the most any horse has managed though is two. One of them is SONGSMITH, who is 2-10 and the other is CROSSTOWN, who is 2-6.

My top rated horse is 0-3 at the trip and 0-2 on the ground.

It’s a race I can only trust to my figures….and staking will be lowish.

DUTCH – RED DEVIL STAR, RYEOLLIAN, CROOKSTOWN
20/80 – CROOKSTOWN
EXOTICS – RED DEVIL STAR, RYEOLLIAN, CROOKSTOWN

Why not join the Weekend Club? It is the best £2.50 you’ll spend each weekend.

TODAY’S FREE RATED RACE

I’ve gone with what is the best race at Southwell….

SOUTHWELL 1-30

* – ROBERTO PEGASUS….+9
T – PERFECT TIMING….+5
T – LADFROMHIGHWORTH….-6
* – SIMPLY WINGS….-16
* – BENEFIT CUT….-30
T* – LAC SACRE….-33
T – PHONE HOME….-38
ROUGH JUSTICE….-40

NOTES: If my top rated takes to Southwell, i’m thinking he’ll win. He is 2-5 on the ground, 2-5 at the trip and nothing else in this race has anything close to stats like those.

LADFROMHIGHWORTH won on his only previous visit to this track and is 3-12 at the trip…it’s just that 0-2 on the ground causing me an issue. I’d have him in a dutch though, along with LAC SACRE. That one sports those two icons I’m now constantly looking out for, is 2-9 on the ground, 1-1 here….but 0-4 at the trip.

DUTCH – ROBERTO PEGASUS, LADFROMHIGHWORTH, LAC SACRE
STRAIGHT WIN – ROBERTO PEGASUS
EXOTICS – ROBERTO PEGASUS, LADFROMHIGHWORTH, LAC SACRE

Best of luck

Ron

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