We are being entertained by the clowns right now, as we await the main act set to appear at the weekend. Certain trainers are having a feast right now whilst the likes of Nicholls and Henderson are merely ticking over, leaving them to it.
Hobbs, Longsden, Walford, Venetia Williams, George, Lucinda Russell….all have theirs running out of their skins right now.
I’m rating conundrums, too….that Chepstow 3-20 yesterday. I think we all knew what was going to happen…and it did.
I wrote this in yesterday’s Newsletter:
“THE EAGLEHASLANDED is impossible for me to rate accurately because he has had just four races under rules. He won over course and distance on his only previous visit to Chepstow and SYKES too is simply impossible to get a rating for that would represent his actual ability. He too has had just four races under rules and if this pair is 20 lengths clear of their field it’ll be no shock”
They only finished two lengths up but duly finished 1st and 2nd and whilst they were in my top six rated horses, I could do nothing with them. My top two in the second rated race there finished 2nd and 3rd – 10/1, 4/1 – so the figures were good, just the results I struggled with!
At Warwick the 20/80 play advised ran well to finish 4th @ 20/1 and those that indulged were paid out but, what was not lost on me was that both those two races were won by horses from the Longsden yard….my guess is you can punt his blind right now.
The last of my four rated races went to the “top rated” who occupied that spot by default. Won pulling a train @ 4/11 and, as predicted, nobody will have gotten rich off that race.
The racing we have to work with at the moment is not great and, as with the flat season these days, everything is geared towards the weekend.
Trying to find those nuggets will be difficult but, they’ll exists and I’d suggest we work with this race today:
MARKET RASEN 2-15
* – SANDS COVE….+5
T* – MASTER NEO….+3
T* – MIDNIGHT CATARIA….-10
* – BIG SOUND….-12
NOTES: I have a horse sitting second best bearing icons, a + figure, ticks in the three boxes I want ticked , 2-9 on the ground, 3-11 at the trip and 1-2 at the track and that would have to be my own play here.
It won’t always be that the top rated horse is actually the best in the race. Just as with the official handicapper, who provides a top weighted horse, once you have the numbers you then look to see which horse is best equipped on a given day, to succeed. Here I favour MASTER NEO.
Best of luck