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Hennessy Profile 27/11/15

Ron RobinsonWithout a doubt, my favourite race of the year.

This year I believe we may see the 2016 Gold Cup winner and the 2016 Grand National winner….and they ain’t the same horse!

Many Post Racing members have a nice ante-post voucher for the Gold Cup, all of us hoping SAPHIR DE RHEU wins this pulling a cart and then seeing his price for March shrink, nay, shrivel!

If profiling suggests he’s a likely winner, I’ll be a happy man.

The horse I’m thinking will win next years National is SMAD PLACE. He is a cracking good jumper and will be a major player if he lines up in April.

Let’s see how this pans out then.

I’m kicking off with the tissue.

The race can throw up a shock from time to time but in the main the winner is 10/1 or shorter. Eight of the last 10 winners traded at those odds or shorter as they went passed the winning post.

My first shortlist then comprises of horses trading 10/1 or shorter:

SAPHIR DE RHEU
BOBS WORTH
SMAD PLACE
IF IN DOUBT
THE YOUNG MASTER

Age grouping next. Eight of the last 10 winners were aged seven, or younger. I’m taking out those eight or older from that first shortlist because, in the last 10 years, no fewer than 87 horses aged 8 – 11 have tried and we’ve seen 1 x 8-y-o, 1 x 9-y-o win and just 12 place.

We have:

SAPHIR DE RHEU
SMAD PLACE
IF IN DOUBT
THE YOUNG MASTER

Now this is where it gets painful. Favourites have a poor record in this race, only two of the last 10 managing to hit the layers. Only two others have placed in that decade and, very reluctantly, I’m ruling out SAPHIR DE RHEU. If he wins, my vouchers look like pure gold and I’d take that as consolation.

SMAD PLACE
IF IN DOUBT
THE YOUNG MASTER

It’s a really strong race for second season chasers and of this trio and seven of the last 10 winners had raced in the previous seasons RSA Chase.

SMAD PLACE is now well seasoned and so, it’s that other pair that make up the final shortlist of two

IF IN DOUBT
THE YOUNG MASTER

I’ll be dutching the pair but if I’m looking for one to play 20/80 then it has to be IF IN DOUBT.

Just to refer back to the age grouping. It is true that six and seven years olds most certainly look the way to go but those aged seven have a seriously upper hand. They have produced six of the last 10 runnings and with the Hobbs horse the one so aged, he gets the gig.

POST RACING PROFILE HORSE

IF IN DOUBT – 20/80

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