Old school performance, exc. dutches which, in the past, I have found impossible to turn an LSP (the fairest performance representation).
7/672 tricasts 4032pts staked, loss of -£2413pts. I’d previously recorded tricasts at around 1% of all rated races (no allowance for NR’s or races with 7 or fewer, which would raise the SR %). Very much worse than anticipated or previously recorded.
131/941 CSF’s 5646pt staked (4590pts (4032+538) if only 2 bets for <7 runners), -784/-15pts. NB CSFS in races <8 runners but not rated 1&2
£84.01/£111.60, £64.97/£104.50, £60.35/£83.50, £65/£57.80, £223.81/160.70, £486/329, £87.63/97, £62.93/63.4, £60.69/170.40, £67.46/58.20, £62.78/70.80, £73/79.70, £138.14/£116.40, £554.22/755.90, £174.10/354.60, £109.82/123.00, £218.88/219.70, £61.31/65.60, £56.43/68.80, £76.79/92.90
Avoid until right minimum return forecast, c£200 tricast, £60/£70 CSF/exacta (although not all 6 CSF combinations will produce that, it may be worth holding off until they do, to reduce number of bets further, although that carries the obvious risk)
Maybe only those with a + rating within top 6 and/or with at least 2 symbols should be utilised for exotics, although I haven’t recorded this subset, as strictly applying all top 3, regardless of rating or symbol. The exacta profit figures fly in the face of previous recorded data though. As ever, the whole idea is to establish long term viability. And probably little synergy between the two codes
This would apply to dutching too, with SR around 34-36% on avg over the years. That would look for around 150-200% return as a minimum to avoid losses
NB races with just 4 runners (no CSF) as total no. of races will differ from top/bottom rated total.