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Today’s Ratings and Advice 09/09/15

Ron RobinsonI was a bit annoyed with myself yesterday. I was sure that high drawn horses were going to struggle at Redcar and they did. I mentioned in the text applied to the 3-20pm race there that it was very tight between low/middle and that’s how it proved. I opted for low…middle dominated.

Only one horse drawn high in the three rated races there, finished in the first five home and I’d expect David O’Meara to get a win out of USTINOV very soon.

I was frustrated by EDGAR BALTHAZAR only managing second place, a horse he had beaten over two lengths a week ago, getting revenge by beating mine a 1/2 length.

My 20/80 in the last there finished fourth @ 10/1, beaten two photos for second place.

I’m still trying to get my head around the very poor run of ABUSHAMAH in the 3-50 but, with hindsight (we are all genius’s with that stuff to hand!), that third run in a fortnight probably did for him.

TODAY

A quiet one, just a trio of races – two from Carlisle (cracking good racing) and a lone figure at Doncaster.

I have a lot of things to catch up on….that’s always the way….and will be head down cracking on.

RACING POST FLAGSHIP TIPSTERS

I received an e-mail yesterday asking me why I was spending time on this. I did actually explain my motivation when I first included this in a Newsletter and that was to point out how everyone doing this struggles when the weather turns against us.

We are now into the sixth week and for the first four and a half weeks (August and the first half of last week), we saw so much rain falling it went beyond funny. We were seeing a months rain falling in two days in most areas and it showed in the results that people who are good at what they do, suffer.

I made it clear that those doing the main tipping section in the Racing Post each day are very good at directing races in search of winners. Tom Segal (who has let this get to his head), is superb, Paul Kealy (in my opinion better than Tom….personal choice), suffered but kept his cool, but now look back at the last five racing days.

The rains have gone, the sun has shone and, they’ve staked 24 points but, recouped 40.3….superb tipping. And yet, that period I’ve been doing this indicates a significant loss.

Anyone buying a Racing Post for the first time last Friday would be thinking the sun shone from those pages…those that have been playing those selections for the period I have been doing this would be telling all and sundry they have been next to useless.

I have been doing this little experiment to highlight to a few people how “punting short term” is going to mess with your mind.

One member recently e-mailed me to say he was leaving us. He had been here less than a month. I responded by asking him why he was choosing that time to leave. He kindly responded that he feels he, “keeps on getting on at the wrong stop”. He was seeing our results were great, coming back on board (he has joined and left several times), only to find he would then struggle to find a winner.

I felt I had to e-mail him to explain that he was not getting on at the wrong stop, he was getting off at the wrong stop.

The Racing Post tipsters got twitchy….or their bosses did. I noticed changes in their selection process (none mores than Tom Segal), as they tried to make corrections/adjustments that they hoped would at the very least, stop a loss. It didn’t work.

I mentioned several times in the last month that I had the absolute luxury of advising you I was not betting today…they had to have something to pop in the paper. Look back at last Wednesday’s Newsletter and you’ll see me quoting one of their number basically venting his frustration at the state of the racing he had to work with. I guarantee you he was wishing he too had that luxury I have. But he still had to make a selection. He had to try and add a positive slant to proceedings when the only positive was that the day’s racing would end.

I believe now it’s “point proven”. When we see weather that has ducks running for cover, we know that we, as punters, are going to struggle. When we see proper racing ground, the sun shining and very little, if any, changes in the ground, we can punt with confidence. We’ll not win every day but for sure, we have a much better chance of success.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Doncaster / Wed 09 Sep

Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 7.7 on Tuesday at 07:15)

Rails: The round course will be railed out from 1M2F until the round meets the straight adding about 9 yards to races 1M 2F

Stalls: Straight course Stands side Round course Inside

Weather 5th September light rain 1mm of rainfall 6th September Dry 7th September Dry 8th September light drizzle am Forecast To remain dry. Overcast through to Wednesday.

Carlisle / Wed 09 Sep
Updated Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places(GoingStick: 8.1 on Tuesday at 07:30)

Rails: Old Stable Bend moved out 4 yards, adding 7 yards to all races 7f and further

Stalls: Inside

Watering: Watered – applied 8mm Thursday and Monday

Weather 2.5mm Wednesday. Tuesday & Wednesday – misting morning, dry,cloudy with some sunny spells 16C

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

CARLISLE 4-35

* – JACOB’S BLACK….+10
* – SILVER RIME….+9
* – IFWECAN….+9
SANTEFISIO….+8
* – MANCHESTAR….+8
* – SILVERY MOON….-3
* – EXTREMITY….-13
* – RALPHY BOY….-14
* – MONT RAS….-16
DREAM WALKER….-16
* – INGLEBY ANGEL….-26

NOTES: No draw bias to mess with my mind here so I will simply trust my numbers. Top three dutch, a 20/80 JACOBS BLACK and exotics.

CARLISLE 5-10

* – CHANCES ARE….+15
* – TECTONIC….+12
* – ELLAAL….+10
§* – LAZARUS BELL….+9
§* – FAZZA….+9
T§* – VENUTIUS….+5
T* – GUARACHA….-5
* – I’M SUPER TOO….-7
§ – ROYAL HOLIDAY….-10
§ – MILLKWOOD….-11
* – KNOW YOUR NAME….-20
ICY BLUE….-33
SOUTH VIEW LADY….-40

NOTES: Cracker of a race. I feel any one of my top six could take this but we know TECTONIC is a right old monkey of a horse, needs to be handled like fine china and I cannot trust him to deliver. This is his track, trip and ground though.

I have three in my top six having those icons I prefer and they’ll be dutched, it’s a 20/80 VENUTIUS and exotics.

DONCASTER 4-45

* – PEARL NOIR….10
§* – BASHIBA….+8
T* – SALVATORE FURY….-5
* – AVON BREEZE….-8
* – JOHNNY CAVAGIN….-9
H* – ANCIENT CROSS….-10
T* – NEWTON’S LAW….-10
§* – BONDI BEACH BOY….-15
* – INNOCENTLY….-16
* – SPACE ARTIST….-16
T§ – EXTRASOLAR….-21
§ – CONFESSIONAL….-22
§ – FREDERICKA….-26
SEARCHLIGHT….-26
§ – GO NANI GO….-29
MONEY TEAM….-34

NOTES: I’m going to work primarily with middle drawn here. Only one in my top six rated horses and BASHIBA gets the 20/80. I’m not unhappy with that as the horse won on the only previous run here, is 5-10 on the ground we have and has an impressive 29% strike rate (5-17), at the trip.

My top rated also boasts a 1-1 course record. Only 1-8 on the ground though and that’s a concern but, drawn “second best” and in my dutch.

SALVATORE FURY should have won last time out but I feel a plot was set to be landed that day and his cover has been blown. The jockeys strike rate of just one win from 93 rides here previously suggests this horse will struggle for support from the saddle.

JOHNNY CAVAGIN gets third spot in the dutch. He’s 2-9 here, 3-10 on the ground but the trip concerns me a bit….0-2.

Exotics the three in the dutch will be set up, too.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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