I got home late afternoon, as expected, after leaving two happy grandkids with a bag of gifts each and full stomachs.
After prepping the one race at York that I have to work with today, I watched back today’s racing and below is my review of how the figures performed yesterday:
§* – GABRIAL’S LAD….+8
* – MAGIC CITY….-1
* – WINDFAST….-3 – NR
* – MULLIONHEIR….-9 – NR
* – SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR….-11 – 2ND 12/1
T* – FREE CODE….-15
H§ – FIELD OF DREAM….-18
§ – HAWKESBURY….-18
§ – MR WIN….-24 – 3RD 13/2
* – MAJESTIC MOON….-25 – WON 12/1
* – ABOVE THE REST….-25
T – AL KHAN….-26
OUTBACK TRAVELLER….-32 – 4TH 20/1
§ – FIFTYSHADESOFGREY….-33 – 5TH 20/1
T – HAWKEYETHENOO….-34
§ – BURNT SUGAR….-35
FOX TROTTER….-40 – 6TH 10/1
NOTES: The ground here is giving me food for thought. Only eight of the horses I have rated here this afternoon have previous winning form on it and after yesterday I’m sure it’s more about reading the draw right, which we did in the 2-40 yesterday, the first two home 33/1 and 10/1 having that § icon that indicates “best drawn”, in my opinion.
I’m just going to have a 20/80 my top one, dutch my top three and set up exotics but for sure, keep an eye on those having the § icon….they put first time head gear on FIELD OF DREAM and Tom Segal has tipped it up.
RESULT – This is simply all over the place. We are going to see plenty of result like this between now and the end of the season and hopefully the figures pick a few up! They didn’t here, unfortunately….but they did in the next!
DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT….+6
§ – CHARLES MOLSON….+3 – 2ND 10/1
§* – HIGHLAND COLORI….-4
T* – RIGHT TOUCH….-5 – WON 10/1
* – AZAMOUR….-11
* – MORACHE MUSIC….-12
T§* – LEXI’S HERO….-13
§ – GROWL….-13
T – MUKHMAL….-15
§ – PERFECT BUSINESS….-17
T – YEEOOW….-32
T§ – MARKET SHARE….-39
NOTES: Two in my top three having that draw icon and Jamie Spencer (who rides this place really well), on RIGHT TOUCH….I’m having that trio on side – dutch, a 20/80 HIGHLAND COLORI and exotics.
RESULT – Had a feeling that Spencer ridden one was off but stuck to my guns re. draw over T Factor….plank. Still, I got my dutch in, a CSF that paid me £100.32 to every £1 and an Exacta that dished out a dividend paying £136.70
T* – ASSAULT ON ROME….-5
ICONIC….-40 – 2ND 15/2
FOREST MAIDEN….-40 – 6TH 5/2F
TEOSROYAL….-40 – 4TH 12/1
LIGHT AND SHADE….-40 – WON 6/1
T – FRAY….-40 – 5TH 10/1
STOSUR….-40 – 3RD 16/1
H – ENGAGING SPECIAL….-40
NOTES: Horrible race. The majority of this lot are 3-y-o’s and I’ll just go 20/80 my top rated.
RESULT – Didn’t like it before it was run, like it even less now. Not a lot of damage done though. Three year olds dominated it, the fancied horses were out with the washing and they were strung out all over Berkshire.
* – FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….+2
§ – SYDNEY RUFFDIAMOND….-2
§ – TAAJUB….-12 – NR
DOCTOR SARDONICUS….-13 – NR
§ – OH SO SASSY….-14 – 3RD 12/1
SLIP SLIDING AWAY….-18
§ – RATHAATH….-31 – WON 10/1
§ – MAJOR PUSEY….-36 – 4TH 8/1
T – BROTHER TIGER….-40 – NR
NOTES; My top rated has been winking at me since last night. I’ll work with my top three to my usual play.
RESULT – Another 3-y-o outsider goes in, two of my top four taken out, and again the fancied horses were stuffed out of sight. Sometimes that’s just how racing days pan out.
§* – FAST TRACK….+8
§* – BLITHE SPIRIT….+8 – 3RD 33/1
T§* – B FIFTY TWO….+8 – 2ND 20/1
§* – MY NAME IS RIO….+7
§ – MIDLANDER….+6
* – BALLESTEROS….+5
T* – GREEN DOOR….+3
* – DESERT ACE….+3
§ – SEVE….+3
* – LEXINGTON PLACE….-1
* – DISTANT PAST….-1
T – MALJAA….-1 – WON 5/1
* – SILVANUS….-3
NOTES: This and the one below are the races I’m most looking forward to. Both tight as Mallards backsides, competitive, love ’em.
If SEVE wins and BALLESTEROS comes home second, I’ll be asking questions in the house!
My top rated won on his only previous run on this ground and, he has a 33% strike rate at the trip but he failed on his only previous trip to the track.
BALLESTEROS is one of only two in here having ticks in those three boxes of trip, track and ground and if had been drawn what I consider “better”, he’d have been in my three.
I can find no real reasons not to trust my numbers when comparing those in my top six. Dutch, 20/80 B FIFTY TWO because he’s got the three icons and, exotics.
RESULT – So close to an absolute monster payout but yet again, a 3-y-o does for me. A neck away from a 20/1 winner and 3/4 of a length off a blistering Exotic. SEVE and BALLESTEROS finished within a short head of each other in 11th and 12th place.
* – CRUISE TOTHELIMIT….+11
§* – MON BRAV….+10 – 3RD 5/1
§* – GRISSOM….+10 – WON 5/1
H* – INDEGO BLUES….+9 – 4TH 16/1
* – CELTIC SIXPENCE….+8
§* – COISTE BODHAR….-5
* – HALF A BILLION….-10
* – ORWELLIAN….-17
§ – BE LUCKY….-18
§ – CAPTAIN ROYALE….-23
NOTES: Looking forward to this one. I’m dropping GRISSOM because he only ran yesterday so even if he does turn out, he’s dropped.
I’m going with 1, 2 and 5….MON BRAV gets my 20/80 and we’ll dutch and have some exotics.
RESULT – On Friday that winner was out with the washing…today bolts in by four lengths. I just shrugged the shrug of a bloke whose got a little back and lost a little. I refuse to bet horses that have raced 24 hours earlier….most will be beaten out of sight.
HICKSTER….-16 – 4TH 18/1
T – BEAU KNIGHT….-18
T – SEARCHING….-21
* – SHERMAN MCCOY….-22
T – SCRUTINISE….-39 – WON 5/1
* – SCRAPPER SMITH….-40
ALL ABOUT TIME….-40
SIR JACK LEYDON….-40
NOTES: I might get back in time to watch this….but I won’t. Worst race I have looked at today and even gun to head I’d say shoot me.
RESULT – I was home in time…stuck to my guns.
If that race I rated at Stratford was an indicator of things to come this winter, I’ll settle for it.
The top rated (following the withdrawal of my original top rated), went in @ 6/1 – hope Andy was drunk enough to punt it!
We have a lone race at York to work with. Big field, competitive….just how I like them.
Tomorrow we have Brighton and Windsor. I will produce figures for Brighton but I myself will not be betting there. Between that pair of meetings we have just one race higher than Class 5….that is at Windsor.
Tuesday isn’t a lot better….but it’s better and I’m awaiting final decs so that I can get working on that this afternoon.
It looks like a nice dry day in store where I am and I’m thinking a good walk before a nice beef roast is on the agenda….I’ve lost a stone in three months and want to maintain that rate of loss until I’m back to my fighting weight.
Karen and I are also looking to get away for a week in October so that I can recharge the old batteries in readiness for the NH season so the usual websites will be visited looking for some sunshine, good food and a chance to relax.
RACING POST FLAGSHIP TIPSTERS
Tom Segal found himself a winner in a dead heat yesterday that recouped, at morning price, 6.5 points.
This means that over the course of the last seven racing days they have played 28 points and recouped 26.73, a loss on the week of just 1.27 points.
At the start of the sixth week of monitoring they now stand -82.31 points.
Tom has he pleasure of producing today’s selections and they are:
FORT DEL ORO
(York 3-00) – 1 point
(York 5-10) – 1 point
York / Sun 06 Sep
Updated @ Sat 05 Sep
Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: overall 6.5; goingstick reading in homestraight: farside – 6.1; centre – 6.2; standside – 6.0. on Saturday at 13:15)
Rails: Rail moved in around home bend reducing official race distances from 1m2f and further races by 42 yards.
Stalls: 6f and 1m4f – centre; 5f89yrds – farside rail; remainder – inside rail.
Weather Rainfall of 11.6mms in last 7 days, dry since Thursday. Met Office forecast: Saturday – Dry, breezy with sunny spells, 14 degrees. Sunday – Dry and bright with good sunny spells, feeling warmer, 17 degrees.
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
§* – COSMIC HALO….+8
* – EURYSTHEUS….+8
§ – THRONABY NASH….+8
§* – ELTHEEB….+8
* – BARREN BROOK….-5
* – SAMSONITE….-18
T* – SWIFT CEDAR….-20
* – PAMUSHANA….-21
* – SAVE THE BEES….-25
* – MOCCASIN….-28
§ – TAMAYUZ MAGIC….-31
§ – FELIX DE VEGA….-34
T – DISTAIN….-34
§ – ROBERO….-39
T§ – CHIEF SPIRIT….-40
T – THORNTOUN CARE….-40
NOTES: The four topping my figures are the four sitting top of the handicap proper. In here we have eight x 3-y-o’s to mess with our minds and whilst my top rated trades 14.5 fourth favourite, three of the younger horses cover the first three spots on the tissue.
I’m thinking that high drawn look favoured, low next and middle requiring snookers. If I’m right, three of my top four rated have box slots to race from and the three that trade favourites right now are boxed “second best.
I have a choice….leave this alone for punting purposes because I cannot rate the younger horses any higher based on the information I have to work with….no different to the official handicapper….or, I trust my figures, my reading of the draw, and run up a play.
I’ve sat here working out a 20 runner handicap and I’m not not having a pop!
My second highest rated had a low draw and therefore is dropped from my play….but the other three, COSMIC HALO, THORNABY NASH and ELTHEEB will be dutched, it’s a 20/80 my top rated and exotics.
Have a brilliant day and the best of luck