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Ayr Gold Cup Profiling 18/09/15

Ron RobinsonI’ve missed doing the profiling. Time this summer has very much been an enemy and for sure, I’m going to have to look very closely at the races I work with for Ratings purposes because right now we have far to much poor racing and rather than waste all our time providing figures that I believe may have nothing in common with the results of such races, I can concentrate my efforts on producing quality Ratings for quality racing and, make sure the races that are fit for Profiling each weekend are covered properly.

Tomorrow we have the Ayr Gold Cup.

A 25 runner cavalry charge over six furlongs and I have to make my first port of call age groups.

I cannot have a 3-y-o on my mind. In the last 10 years 22 have tried to win this and only four have managed a placing. Right now we have a 3-y-o trading favourite, RIGHT TOUCH, and that horse has so many negatives I’m surprised he’s lining up!

No favourite has won this in the last 10 runnings, only three have finished in the first trip past the winning post in that period.

Only two horses have won this in the last decade having won on their previous start.

His trainer, Richard Fahey, as prolific as he is most Saturday’s, has saddled 32 runners in those10 years and saddled just one winner, FONTHILL ROAD in 2006….a very nice 16/1 shot for those that found it.

You cannot argue with the horse’s form figures….unbeaten in all four career starts to date but, two of those have come on soft and one on sand.

He is drawn six….only one of the last seven winners came from a single figure draw.

Ok, if he’s not going to win it, who is?

At the beginning of the season I expressed an opinion that David O’Meara would be looking to follow up last years win with HIGHLAND ACCLAIM. Nothing I have seen this season dissuades me from that opinion, especially that finishing effort over five furlongs in the Portland Handicap last weekend. He was doing all of his best work as they past the line in 5th.

Right…let’s see if the runes agree with that early season prediction and rest assured, I’ll not engineer this to have that one come out as the selection!

I’m looking for a horse aged four or older as the last 10 winners have come from older horses…four were aged four, three were aged five and three came from older horses still.

Bearing that in mind we’ll take our first shortlist from the correct weight range and then refer back to age groups.

Only two horses have carried more than 9st 4lb to victory in the period of time I’m working with. So, taking that into account and drawing qualifiers only from that age grouping selected above, we have our first shortlist:

NINJAGO
BUCKSTAY
RED PIKE
ALGAR LAD
BOOM THE GROOM
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM
BLAINE
HOOF IT
LEXINGTON ABBEY

Whilst it’s true to say favourites have had a bang awful time of it, it’s also true to say that only three of the last 10 winners started bigger than 16/1 so the next short list comes from those above trading 16/1 or shorter, but no favourite:

BUCKSTAY
ALGAR LAD
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM
BLAINE

Down to four and it has not been lost on me that two come from Helmsley and my long range fancy is still in there pitching!

Knowing only two arrived here off the back of a win last time out, the next thing I’ll do is prune those with a 1 next to their names for that last racecourse appearance:

ALGAR LAD
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM
BLAINE

We will know more after the Silver Cup whether or not I’m reading the draw correctly but I only want those drawn high on side, if I take it as read that high is favoured…and I have to knowing that six of the last eight winners were drawn 15 or higher.

I’m down to two:

ALGAR LAD
BLAINE

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM has been given the two box and that might well have done for him.

The first thing I’m doing is setting up a dutch that pair. Priced 14/1 and 16/1 it makes sense.

If I’m looking for a 20/80….which I am….I have to confess to finding both equally attractive for that play.

I find the fact ALGAR LAD won over five furlongs here last season, on genuine good ground, and I like the fact that BLAINE’s trainer, Kevin Ryan has saddled two of the last four winners of this. This horse actually finished 3rd in this race last season from a draw just three spots lower.

POST RACING PLAY:

DUTCH – ALGAR LAD/BLAINE
2 X 20/80’S SAME PAIR
EXOTICS

Whatever happens, it’s going to be a brilliant race and hopefully I’m collecting after it!

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