Old school performance, exc. dutches which, in the past, I have found impossible to turn an LSP (the fairest performance representation).
6/490 tricasts 2940pts staked, loss of -£1357pts. Still disappointing. I’d recorded tricasts at around 1% of all rated races, making no allowance for NR’s and races going of with 7 or fewer, which would raise the SR a bit. Very much a watching brief or hugely selective process with these numbers in mind
101/712 CSF’s 4272pt staked (3384pts (2940+444) if only 2 bets for <7 runners), -171/+556.9pts. NB CSFS in races <8 runners but not rated 1&2
£84.01/£111.60, £64.97/£104.50, £60.35/£83.50, £65/£57.80, £223.81/160.70, £486/329, £87.63/97, £62.93/63.4, £60.69/170.40, £67.46/58.20, £62.78/70.80, £73/79.70, £138.14/£116.40, £554.22/755.90, £174.10/354.60, £109.82/123.00, £218.88/219.70
Avoid until right minimum return forecast, c£200 tricast, £60/£70 CSF/exacta (although not all 6 CSF combinations will produce that, it may be worth holding off until they do, to reduce number of bets further, although that carries the obvious risk)
It may be that only those with a + rating within top 6 and/or with at least 2 symbols should be utilised for exotics, although I haven’t recorded their performance, as strictly applying all top 3, regardless of rating and symbol. But these figures of late do fly in the face of recorded data of previous seasons. As ever, the whole idea is to establish long term viability. But also note of late disparity of – CSF and + exacta.
Borne out by current performance, this may apply to dutching as well, where the SR is around 34-36% on avg over the years. That would look for around 150-200% return as a minimum to avoid losses
NB races with just 4 runners (no CSF) as total no. of races will differ from top/bottom rated total.