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Today’s Ratings and Advice 31/07/15

Ron RobinsonIt might well be, as I suggested yesterday, ordinary stuff away from Goodwood but I went to bed with a smile on my face last night.

Happy, despite small fields, that the winners of four of my rated races were in my top three rated and in my top two rated horses, in three.

The one rated race I played, in which I had a straight win bet my top rated, saw that get nutted on the line @ 7/2, beaten by the 16/1 winner that sat fourth on the numbers. All six winners yesterday were actually in my top four rated.

Finding a horse to lay this week had proven tricky and we saw our first for several days posted up at 11:00am yesterday morning. ALAWEER, which sat 5th on my figures in the Ffos Las 8-20 race, was the only one advised out of a preliminary list of six.

One of those six didn’t run and of the five that did, I personally chose just the one, which went off a well enough backed 15/8 favourite and finished….5th, as the figures predicted.

All five that ran, were beaten….another indicator that things are working very well right now.

The OF INTEREST selections produced one winner from three selections, LORELINA, that was available to punt at 33/1 and returned 28/1.

TODAY

The majority of my work today is based around evening racing and I will be sending out a second Newsletter this afternoon containing those figures. Thirsk offers us absolutely nothing by way of rated races and Goodwood provides just one.

I will have figures and advice for the following in my second Newsletter:

BATH 8-15
MUSSELBURGH 6-45
MUSSELBURGH 7-20
MUSSELBURGH 8-25
MUSSELBURGH 8-55
NEWMARKET 7-00
NEWMARKET 7-35
NEWMARKET 8-40

I am not going to finalise my figures for those races until after I’ve had my lunch. This will enable me to sift out non-runners and reassess any draw bias, etc and the figures should, therefore, be even more accurate.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Musselburgh / Fri 31 Jul
Updated @ Thu 30 Jul

Going/Track Good Temporary Flat Track from the 3f marker on to NH Track making use of the fibresand bend re-joining at 9f Marker The stands bend is being re cambered (GoingStick: 7.3 on Thursday at 12:30)

Rails: Temporary Flat track using NH course from 3f over Fibresand re-joining the flat track 9f Distances 5f will run over 5f 1yd 7f will run over 7f 33yds 1m 1f will run over 1m 208yds 1m 4f will run over 1m 4f 53yds 2m will run over 1m 7f 165yds

Stalls: Stalls 2m and 5f Centre Remainder Inside

Weather 15mm over the weekend 7mm Monday 3mm Tuesday 2mm Wednesday Forecast Thursday – Early Cloud breaking up dry day with sunny spells Friday – Risk of showers up to 2mms Cloudy 16c

Goodwood / Fri 31 Jul
Updated @ Thu 30 Jul

Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 7.5 on Thursday at 09:30)

Rails: Fresh ground lower bendStalls: Straight course stand side, round course inside, 1m 3f/1m 4f.outdide

Weather Dry overnight . Forecast of mainly dry weather for the rest of the week

Newmarket / Fri 31 Jul
Updated @ Thu 30 Jul

Going/Track Good to Soft (GoingStick: 7.0 on Thursday at 10:00)

Rails: The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 10f and 12f races by 20yds.

Stalls: Far Side Course 10f & 12f Centre Remainder Far Side

Weather 35mm of rain on Friday and Saturday morning. A further 11mm of rain on Sunday. 2mm of rain on Tuesday. 0.25mm of rain on Wednesday. Thursday; Potential morning and early afternoon showers. Friday; Dry and with sunny spells. Saturday; Sunny spells but potential light mid afternoon showers.

Thirsk / Fri 31 Jul
Updated @ Thu 30 Jul

Going/Track Good to Soft (GoingStick: 7.5 on Thursday at 15:00)

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands’ Side Round Course: Inside 1M4F Start: Stands’ Side

Weather 30mm rain over Mon & Tue, but fair day with occasional light showers yesterday and today (Thu) should also be fair. Fri is forecast fair, with possibility of light showers in the afternoon and Sat also set fair.

Bath / Fri 31 Jul
Updated @ Thu 30 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in Places (GoingStick: 8.4 on Wednesday at 07:30)

Stalls: 1m, 1m2f & 1m3f – Inside 5f, 5.5f & 2m1f – Centre 1m 5f – Outside

Weather 31mm rain Friday 24th July 24mm Sunday 26th July 1mm Tuesday 28th July 2mm overnight Forecast: Weds – Fri, Mainly dry, cloudy with sunny spells. Max temps 17C

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

GOODWOOD 3-10

* – DONNCHA….+15
§* – CHIL THE KITE….+9
* – GM HOPKINS….+8
§* – MUNAASER….+6
§* – BELGIAN BILL….+2
* – LOVING SPIRIT….-1
* – BASEM….-1
T§* – TWO FOR TWO….-2
AYAAR….-6
* – RED AVENGER….-9
§* – OCEAN TEMPEST….-10
T§* – SO BELOVED….-10
* – MAGIC CITY….-13
* – BIG BAZ….-14
T* – FORT BASTION….-15
* – BRONZE ANGEL….-16
* – LINCOLN….-22
T – YOU’RE FIRED….-30
BALTIC KNIGHT….-33
§ – THE RECTIFIER….-40

NOTES: More than 50% of the last 20 races run over this trip here, have been won by horses drawn low. I have three in my top five rated having been fortunate in this respect but given his running style, it may be a curse for CHIL THE KITE. He will need a bit of luck in running.

My top rated horse is drawn what I’d call “second best” and from a stats point of view look absolutely certain to run a big race. He is 2-3 on the ground, 3-8 at the trip and won on his only previous visit to Goodwood. Did he leave this race in Berkshire, when running a cracker to finish 3rd at Ascot just six days ago, though?

GM HOPKINS has copped for a poor draw here but he’s a class act and with 2 x wins on the going as currently described, and having a 43% strike rate at the trip (3-7), plus top man Hughes riding, he’s one I’ll fear.

The horse I’m going to work with for my 20/80 is MUNAASER – draw, going and trip right, he’s now finding his form.

I could waffle on about a fair few of these…MAGIC CITY loves this gaff but has a poor record at the trip (0-6), and my final three against the field for dutching are:

DONNCHA, CHIL THE KITE, MUNAASER….20/80 MUNAASER and exotics.

MUSSELBURGH 6-45

* – CAPE LION….+9
T – BE LUCKY….+8
JUBILEE BRIG….+7
MOWHOOB….-4
* – CIRCUITOUS….-15
* – SILVE RIME….-22
T – FAVOURITE TREAT….-39
DARK CRYSTAL….-40
CHANCES ARE….-40
T – BOND FASTRAC….-40
VECHEKA….-40

MUSSELBURGH 7-20

T§* – SHIPYARD….+12
§* – THORNTOUN LADY….+11
T* – MASTER BOND….+11
T§* – PEARL ACCLAIM….+9
* – BUNCE….+8
T* – I’LL BE GOOD….+4
T* – FLASH CITY….+4
T§* – RUSTY ROCKET….-4
§ – RITA’S BOY….-8
T – MONEY TEAM….-18
GO GO GREEN….-28

NOTES: Best race here tonight. Ih ave a trio obtaining going and draw icons in my top four and they’ll do for me personally. THORNTOUN LADY is currently unbeaten at the trip and I was very tempted to play that on 20/80 but I’ll stick to my top one who, like both THRONTOVN LADY and PEARL ACCLAIM, is unbeaten here, all three 1-1.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – SHIPYARD, THORNTOUN LADY, PEARL ACCLAIM
20/80 – SHIPYARD
EXOTICS – SHIPYARD, THORNTOUN LADY, PEARL ACCLAIM

MUSSELBURGH 8-25

* – ARGAKI….+8
T – BAHAMIAN DESERT….-2
T* – ELLAAL….-10
SILVER DUKE….-22
* – BROOKE’S BOUNTY….-29
* – FORT BELVEDERE….-35
T – LUV U….-37
T* – GRACEFUL ACT….-38
BEIJING STAR….-40

MUSSELBURGH 8-55

T – ROY’S LEGACY….+7
* – YA BOY SIR….-2
* – TADALAVIL….-5
* – SAXONETTE….-22
T – BUSY BIMBO….-33
T – OIL STRIKE….-40
LITTLE BELTER….-40
CALYPSO MAGIC….-40
T – CHARLES MESSIER….-40

NEWMARKET 7-00

T – SALVIERIS MASS….+1
T* – EMPRESS ALI….+/-0
KASTINI….-8
LAURENCE….-14
MEMORIAL DAY….-27
RAW IMPULSE….-30
SWING ALONE….-32
YEENAAN….-40
THECORNISHCOWBOY….-40

NEWMARKET 7-35

§ – HE’S MY BOY….+10
H§ – ZESHOV….+9
* – DREAM TUNE….-7
§ – TRUCANNINI….-8
LIBERTY JACK….-13
BALTIC BRAVE….-23
MEZZOTINT….-26
BEACH BAR….-34
MYBOYALFIE….-34
§ – PERSONAL TOUCH….-36
EVENING ATTIRE….-37
SWISS CROSS….-38
TELLOVOI….-39
§ – CINCUENTA PASOS….-40
CRAZY CHIC….-40

NOTES: Only one of these has winning form on good to soft and hopefully that’s how the ground remains. I feel the draw is important here and I have three in my top four with box slots.

My top rated was given a peach of a ride by Hayley Turner to beat the one sitting in second spot tonight but that was on good to firm ground. Both wins have come here on that quicker surface and it’s all going to come down to who handles it best. Neither has raced on it yet so we’ll all know at the same time.

I’m going to play the Noseda horse this time as they have gone for the head gear. He looked to have his race won before getting nailed close home last time and if that helps him concentrate then he may well reverse those placings.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – HE’S MY BOY, ZESHOV, TRUCANNINI
20/80 – ZESHOV
EXOTICS – HE’S MY BOY, ZESHOV, TRUCANNINI

NEWMARKET 8-40

TALYANI….-34
* – JONNIE SKULL….-35
ESTIKHRAAJ….-36
DAGHER….-39
SUBTLE KNIFE….-40
MAJROOH….-40
T – CALL OUT LOUD….-40

BATH 8-15

* – BOOGANGOO….+1
* – CALIMA BREEZE….-4
* – PRIM AND PROPER….-11
T – STOSUR….-12
* – STARLIGHT SYMPHONY….-25
TH – AMAZING SPEED….-30

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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