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Today’s Ratings and Advice 30/08/15

Ron RobinsonAugust this year has been very strange. Racing results, football results….all really strange stuff.

Karen came into my office early yesterday morning and said she and her daughter were going into Liverpool to buy some new pillow cases. I had, at that time, been marrying up the tissue to my figures and knew (you must have had that feeling yourself at times), it was going to be mighty difficult to extract a profit from the day. I wasn’t betting at Goodwood
(if I had, I would have done well with the first race, lost on the second), I would have had one winning race from the three at Beverley, I would not have played at Newmarket/Windsor and I might have wrung a profit from that second Redcar race but it wouldn’t have amounted to much.

I ended up in Lewis’s, Debenhams, Hotel Chocolat, Next, and we enjoyed dinner at Cafe Rouge. I didn’t see a stick of racing having decided to get out and stretch my legs.

Whilst having a coffee I was checking results and keeping up with the football scores. Liverpool were 2-0 down, at home, at coffee time, Chelsea were just falling behind at home to Palace at dinner time and the stat that tells us that of the 38 games so far (thanks, Tony!), only seven have been won by the home team?

The Beverley 4-40 race I had rated saw the bottom three horses come home 1st, 2nd and 3rd 20/1, 20/1, 25/1….

Buying the girls their mocha’s and dinner cost me a lot less than I would have wagered and watching her daughter having her eyes sorted out at the Debenham’s cosmetic counter of “Too Faced” (whilst probably the least exciting thing I have ever done), kept the bank safe!

HOW THE FIGURES PERFORMED YESTERDAY

BEVERLEY 2-55

§ – YPRES….+14
§* – POINT NORTH….+9
§* – BRONZE BEAU….+9
* – OLDJOESAID….+9
H* – KEEP IT DARK….+8
* – EL VIENTO….+8 – 2ND
* – NOODLES BLUE BOY….+6
INCOMPARABLE….-1
§ – COSMIC CHATTER….-15 – WON
COMPTON RIVER….-21
TWEETY PIE….-31 – 3RD

NOTES: I’ve never trusted YPRES. Decent but never always seem to put it in. I’ll work with the three below him…dutch, 20/80 POINT NORTH and exotics.

RESULT – Read the draw right…never difficult here!….but that was all.

BEVERLEY 3-30

§* – TOM SAWYER….+18 – 2ND 4/1
§* – RYLEE MOOCH….+12
* – PEARL NOIR….+11
§* – MARGRETS GIFT….+10 – WON 6/1
* – THATCHERITE….+9 – 3RD 10/1
* – PERAROVA….+8
* – ADIATOR….+2
* – APRICOT SKY….-4
§ – SHAWKANTANGO….-7
* – SEE VERMONT….-14
LUCKY MARK….-40

NOTES: Three in my top four having draw and ground right….they get the gig for a play identical to the one above.

RESULT – Figures and reading of them fine and I hope some of you got a nice enough profit from it.

BEVERLEY 4-40

* – CAPE LION….+13
* – ROUSAYAN….+11
§* – HULCOLT….+9
* – CHISWICK BEY….+9
§ – MUJAZIF….+9
* – TRUE PLEASURE….+8
§* – KALK BAY….+2
NAOISE….-1
§ – RELIGHT MY FIRE….-2
FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP….-6
GRANDEST….-21
§ – MONSIEUR CHEVALIER….-33 – WON 20/1
DUAL MAC….-33 – 2ND 20/1
T – JUVENTAS….-38 – 3RD 25/1

NOTES: I’m going top three again to a dutch and it’s HULCOLT I will have 20/80…exotics, too.

RESULT – Go figure!

GOODWOOD 2-35

§ – PASTORAL PLAYER….+10
§* – BOOMSHACKELACKER….+8
T – ENLACE….+4
T* – RENE MATHIS….+3 – WON 10/1
* – LINCOLN….+/-0
T§* – SHARED EQUITY….-4 – 3RD 8/1
* – BOY IN THE BAR….-5
* – CAN’T CHANGE IT….-6
T§* – WITHERNSEA….-7
* – BEACH BAR….-7
* – JACK’S REVENGE….-8
§ – MAGIC CITY….-10
FOX TROTTER….-21
§ – ATHLETIC….-22
CZECH IT OUT….-29
T§ – TATLISU….-31
SUZI’S CONNOISSUER….-31
§ – JALOTTA….-34
T – FARLOW….-40 – 4TH
H – RUBAN….-40

RESULT – Anyone utilising the horse having the T enjoyed that one. Three of the first four home had made a journey and for sure, in this day and age (and given the profits that have been achieved by several T Factor methods), I’m now convinced their is something in it and Gary and I will be getting our heads together in October to work out how best to make them even better.

GOODWOOD 4-50

BALMORAL CASTLE….+15
MISTER MUSIC….+4
* – BURANO….-4
* – KAPSTADT….-16
* – RAW IMPULSE….-21
ANGELIC UPSTART….-21
* – PEAK STORM….-35
FIRST DREAM….-40
SHAAKIS….-40
T – IMSHIVALLA….-40 – WON 16/1

RESULT – That T Factor again.

NEWMARKET 5-40

§ – GLOBAL FORCE….+9
T§* – LATE NIGHT REQUEST….+4
§ – LONDON CITIZEN….-2 – 3RD 12/1
VOICE OF A LEADER….-3
T – ABBEY ANGEL….-4
* – DONNY ROVER….-7
§ – FIELD OF FAME….-11 – WON 7/1
RYDAN….-15
§ – UELE RIVER….-17 – 2ND 9/2
BARYE….-29
T – FIRST SARGEANT….-30
T – ANSAAB….-35
MY REWARD….-35
T – URBAN MOON….-40

NOTES: The ground is drying out here and I already know that my prep work is redundant so, I will not be betting here as I have no chance of revisiting these races.

RESULT – I think it fair to say I read the draw right but I would love to know how this race would have looked had I had time to re-work it.

NEWMARKET 6-10

T* – JUDGE ‘N JURY….+11 – NR
T§* – BALLESTEROS….+4 – 4TH
§* – FREE ZONE….-2 – NR
* – RED INVADER….-6 – 2ND
STAKE ACCLAIM….-10 – WON
EXTREME SUPREME….-22
T§ – VALLARTA….-27 – 3RD
§ – ABSOLUTE CHAMPION….-29
T – MACDILLON….-31
T – ADDICTIVE DREAM….-35
DOMINATE….-40 – NR
GROUNDWORKER….-40

RESULT – First four home in the top five rated that turned out but how I would have worked this is anyone’s guess.

REDCAR 6-50

T* – KARAKA JACK….+12 – 2ND 11/4
* – DUTCH DESCENT….+12 – NR
* – OUR BOY JACK….+8 – NR
* – ABUSHAMAH….-5 – WON 6/1
* – SIMPLY SHINING….-20
MIDLIGHT….-40
MOONLIGHT VENTURE….-40
ZAEEM….-40
ROAYH….-40

NOTES: I’m happy enough with my numbers and will work only with my top pair…dutch, a 20/80 KARAKA JACK and exotics.

RESULT – Had I worked as suggested after removing those non-runners I would have made a couple of bob but, I didn’t.

REDCAR 7-50

ASPIRANT….+9
* – RED CAPE….+9
YORKSHIRE….+8 – 3RD 10/1
* – GAELIC WIZARD….-2 – 4TH 9/2
§* – SUNRISE DANCE….-7 – 2ND 16/1
T* – FROGNAL….-11 – NR
§* – JEBEL TARA….-11 – WON 7/2
§ – FOREIGN RHYTHM….-13
§* – TINSILL….-13
§ – AFFECTIONATE LADY….-22 – NR
H§ – LEAVE IT TO ARNO….-23
H* – VODKA TIME….-23
TH – WAR PAINT….-27
GEORGE BAILEY….-30 – NR
STENID….-30
§ – BARWAH….-36
FRENCH PRESS….-36 – NR
DARING DRAGON….-36 – NR
TH§ – LOUDLY….-40
REGAL BOND….-40

NOTES: A complete dog of a race that I’ll play only yo October Rules rated horses 2, 4 and 5….it’s a shocker.

RESULT – Again, had I looked at this after those non-runners had been plucked from the list I’d have had got a profit from it but we had a bottle of wine on the coffee table and were watching the Les Miserables DVD.

WINDSOR 5-35

DEEMAH….-22
PRIVILEGED….-24 – 2ND
STAR OF SPRING….-40 – 4TH
LA SUPERBA….-40 – WON
LULANI….-40
WHITE RUSSIAN….-40
GLEAMING GIRL….-40
NOUVEAU FORET….-40

WINDSOR 6-05

* – CRITICAL RISK….+10 – 2ND
KEYSTROKE….+10 – WON
* – STARWATCH….+/-0
* – DARK WAVE….-20
TUNNEL CREEK….-22
YEENAAN….-28
MYSTICAL SPIRIT….-28

WINDSOR 7-35

CAPE SPIRIT….+3
* – KHEE SOCIETY….-7
SMOKY HILL….-24
JERSEY JEWEL….-40
T – INSTILL….-40 – WON 5/4
HURRICANE VOLTA….-40
BROUGHTONS BERRY….-40
NEW TARABELA….-40

RESULT – The figures were fine and the only horse carrying a T in my rated races here, won….

TODAY

Yarmouth is back. You can imagine how happy that makes me. Oh joy, another Bath, Brighton to work with!

They have been carrying out remedial work on the home straight and I have no idea how my stats will work regarding things like draw bias, etc. The bulk of the work today pertains to that track but I would most definitely advise you just watch. The “feeling” I had when looking at that meeting was that Paul Hanagan might have a few winners.

The rated race at Goodwood will not be played for the reasons I mentioned yesterday.

That leaves me one race at Beverley, which has a brace of 3-y-o’s topping my numbers. I expect, given ground conditions, my second highest rated might be the one.

Thankfully just two days of this month left and with that jet stream now heading north, we’ll hopefully get a dry September and everything returns to “normal”.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Beverley / Sun 30 Aug
Updated @ Sun 30 Aug

Going/Track Good, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 7.9 on Sunday at 06:15)

Rails: The inside rail has been moved out by 2 yards between the 8-furlong point and the 2-furlong point (round course) adding 8 yards to all races of 7 furlongs and further. There is a false rail “cut in” around the 2 furlong point on the home straight.

Stalls: Inside all races

Weather Sun – Overcast – 18C

Goodwood / Sun 30 Aug
Updated @ Sat 29 Aug

Going/Track Soft, Good to Soft in Places on the round course (GoingStick: 6.6 on Saturday at 07:15)

Stalls: Straight course stand side, round course inside except 1m 3f and 1m 4F which are outside

Weather Dry overnight dry but maybe some rain this afternoon.

Great Yarmouth / Sun 30 Aug
Updated @ Sun 30 Aug

Going/Track Straight – Good, Good to soft in places Back straight – Good to soft (GoingStick: 7.4 on Sunday at 06:45)

Rails: The home straight will be railed off from the bend to the caravan club crossing – safety factor for all races reduced to 12.

Stalls: Straight – stand side, 1m 2f – inside

Weather 2mm of rain overnight. Forecast is for it to be dry with sunny spells

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BEVERLEY 4-00

DEEP BLUE DIAMOND….+14
* – DONNA GRACIOSA….+12
* – SATANIC BEAT….+1
KING OF THE CELTS….-3
* – SAN CASSIANO….-12
MIDNIGHT WARRIOR….-12
* – FLYING POWER….-13
SHALABINA….-26
PROSATE AWARENESS….-40
YOURHOLIDAYISOVER….-40

NOTES: The only race I will be working with myself this afternoon. I have a pair miles clear on my figures, they are 3-y-o’s, they head the early morning tissue and it’s a dutch that pair plus a 20/80 DONNA GRACIOSA purely and simply because of the 1-5 on the ground. That is countered by the fact she has no wins at this trip (0-3), whilst my top rated is 1-4….both are 1-2 at Beverley.

Having the Johnston/De Sousa team onside does no harm but it’s going to be a close call, I’m sure.

YARMOUTH 2-40

* – MONSIEUR JAMIE….-7
* – COMMANCHE….-13
H – HARWOODS STAR….-35
DANZOE….-37
JAMMY GUEST….-37
HONCHO….-39
MY MATE….-40
EVENING ATTIRE….-40
T – PRINCE REGAL….-40

YARMOUTH 3-15

ESTIKHRAAJ….+14
§* – EAST COAST LADY….+4
§ – UP IN LIGHTS….-7
§ – ELUSIVE GUEST….-10
TOMMY’S SECRET….-15
MY STRATEGY….-15
GUARACHA….-23
GHINIA….-23
T – DUTCH DESCENT….-28
§ – LORD REASON….-37
T – ROGUE WAVE….-40

YARMOUTH 3-50

H – MUJASSAM….+13
ZALTY….+9
EXCELLENT GUEST….-15
T* – MORACHE MUSIC….-21
FIELDSMAN….-21
T – BALTIC BRAVE….-24
* – RUN WITH PRIDE….-27
T – BERTIEWHITTLE….-28
SIR ROBERT CHEVAL….-40

YARMOUTH 4-25

§* – VENUS MARINA….+13
HONEYMOON EXPRESS….+9
T§ – ENTENTE….+4
§ – AFKAR….-10
RED UNICO….-12
ON THE HUH….-22
TASAABOQ….-27
WU ZUTIAN….-28
BORN TO FLY….-34
EXPENSIVE TASTE….-36
§ – HAAMES….-40
MAKHFAR….-40

YARMOUTH 4-55

OCEAN APPLAUSE….+11
T* – JUMEIRAH GLORY….+9
ROYAL ALTITUDE….+8
* – MEMORIA….+/-0
H – INDELIBLE INK….-17
COMANCHE CHIEFTAIN….-27
MEZAJY….-40
ONE PEKAN….-40
HAALAN….-40
INDIRA….-40

GOODWOOD 5-15

* – PHAROH JAKE….+4
* – BEAU MISTRAL….-1
* – TOUCH THE CLOUDS….-12
THREAVE….-32
MOSSGO….-40
OHSOSECRET….-40
ECLIPTIC SUNRISE….-40
T – BOROUGH BOY….-40

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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