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Today’s Ratings and Advice 28/08/15

Ron RobinsonIt’s Bank Holiday weekend and we’ll have wall to wall racing….18 meetings across the next four days.

It’s funny today though, the bulk of the racing takes place this evening.

I’m guessing those Racing Post tipsters are already looking for flak jackets, tin hats and bunkers. Another two points dropped yesterday and so far, this week, the only success they have seen has been three points coming back because their selections were non-runners.

During August they have lost an average of 20 points per week and in yesterday’s Racing Post the guy doing their flagship section, noted that after 20 years of betting on horses racing at Brighton, he will no longer be betting on racing from that track. Don’t blame him. It’s rubbish racing, small fields, and any money a punter is considering spending on betting there, should save it for those days on which we have proper racing to work with.

I am so pleased they have not raced at Yarmouth this summer!

Several members have suggested that I provide figures only for what they term decent racing. It is under consideration.

As we know, the T Factor has proven successful this season and I have asked Gary if he could look at ways in which we can now look to increase profitability from it, whilst cutting back on the number of points played to achieve the profit. One angle I am keen to have a figure for is the Class of racing producing most profit. My guess would be Class 4 or above.

If this is found to be correct then I’ll be dropping small field Class 6 races like a hot spud.

This summer has been very, very hard work and I am 100% convinced profitability can be improved by being more selective with the races I present to you each day. We have had just two months so far (June and July), when we had settled weather and were able to tear into the layers. May and August have been atrocious weather wise and that is also something I’ll be looking at in future. On days it’s simply impossible to know what will be happening regarding ground and field size because of the weather, I’ll be making the decision not to post up figures. Again, I’d be extremely confident that too will improve profitability.

If we are betting on horse racing that is very low grade, that sees a change in ground and reduction of field size, you might just as well throw a grenade into your bank as bet on it….same result.

That’s why the placepot paid over £10k at Brighton on Sunday.

I’m going to produce a piece regarding Royal Ascot this year. That was the worst result for a “Special” I have ever had and I know, for absolute certain, the reason why.

One trainer last weekend reaped a huge benefit for not running a horse there because of what they were racing on. The desire of trainers and owners to race a horse their took priority and during the course of that week one member e-mailed me to say he was taking a beating….me too. I explained to him at the time what was happening and told him that Michael Dodds would, at some point, reap a huge reward for withdrawing MECCA’S ANGEL from the race they’d aimed at, at Royal Ascot…and didn’t he just.

I hope the “report” makes for interesting reading, whether you agree with it or not.

THE GOAL POSTS COMPETITIONS

The two competitions for this weekend have been set up and you are cordially invited to join us over there.

It has to be easy to select three games from the Premiership fixture list and simply say whether they be a home, away or draw….shouldn’t it?

Only one player in the first three weeks of the season has managed to do it so far!

If you can do better, visit The Goal Posts, login and visit the competitions section on the Forum.

The winner of that competition each weekend gets a free £10 treble on their selections the following weekend.

The second competition we have is GOLDEN GOAL. We select a game from the fixture list, simply ask you to nominate the time of the first goal and the closest to the time receives a free £1 correct score Patent on three games of their choosing the following weekend.

It’s all free, adds a bit of fun to the weekend and if a few people win a few quid along the way, great!

TODAY

I’ll not even be looking at Ffos Las. When I was prepping yesterday I noted 35 runners across seven race on ground rice plantation owners would move away from. That’s not horse racing I want to be involved in.

Below you have just two rated races but a second Newsletter will be going out this afternoon, giving you figures for a further 10 rated races and they will include the Newmarket 5-50pm event.

I actually prefer working like this as I can, up to a point, take into account non-runners, look again at any potential draw bias and (hopefully), provide you with a more accurate assessment of a race.

It does make for a busy old day as I’m also prepping tomorrows racing and starting on Sunday’s racing. Could be a long one.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Goodwood / Fri 28 Aug
Updated @ Thu 27 Aug

Going/Track Soft (GoingStick: 6.2 on Wednesday at 07:15)

Rails: Lower bend dolled out 6.5 yards and up the straight to 2.5 furlongs from the Winning Post. Increasing race distances by 10 yards on races using the lower bend

Stalls: Straight course stand side Round course inside

Weather Dry since 3.30 yesterday, remaining dry today, tomorrow and Saturday.

Newmarket / Fri 28 Aug
Updated @ Thu 27 Aug

Going/Track Good to Soft (GoingStick: 6.5 on Thursday at 07:00)

Rails: Stands side course.

Stalls: 10f – centre; Remainder – far side

Weather 14mm rain Wednesday. Dry overnight. Currently bright and breezy. Chance of further showers later in the day. Friday is expected to remain largely dry with bright spells and temperatures of around 20C

Thirsk / Fri 28 Aug
Updated @ Thu 27 Aug

Going/Track Good to Soft, Good in Places (GoingStick: 7.6 on Thursday at 14:00)

Rails: Rail on both bends remains dolled-out circa 3-4 yards adding circa 15 yards to the standard distances over 7F and 1M, and circa 20 yards to the standard distance over 2M.

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands’ Side Round Course: Inside 2M Start: Centre

Weather Fair through to racing but possibility of light showers during Friday afternoon.

Newcastle / Fri 28 Aug
Updated @ Fri 28 Aug

Going/Track Good to Soft, Good in pls (GoingStick: 6.0 on Thursday at 15:45)

Rails: Remain as for last meeting. Round rail from 1m2f to straight moved in 2m from inside. Adding 13m to the 1m4f race.

Stalls: Straight course: Centre 1m4f: Inside

Weather Dry overnight and set to remain so until after racing on today. Likely to quicken a fraction between now & racing Fri eve. Light showers possible Sat & Mon. Temps between 12c & 19c.

Ffos Las / Fri 28 Aug
Updated @ Thu 27 Aug

Going/Track HEAVY RACING GOES AHEAD 15mm of rain last 24 hours 14mm of rain Tuesday night 104mm of rain Wednesday 19th to Monday 24th (GoingStick: 3.4 on Wednesday at 08:30)

Rails: The rail will be moved in both straights to provide fresh ground.

Stalls: 5f & 6f Far side 7f+, 1m & 1m2f Outside

Weather Forecast: Scattered showers on Thursday. Mainly dry and sunny on Friday, max temp 18C.

Hamilton Park / Fri 28 Aug
Updated @ Thu 27 Aug

Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3 on Tuesday at 08:00)

Rails: The rail is positioned for this meeting as follows: One Mile 65yds is extended by 9yds One Mile 1F is extended by 9yds One Mile 4F is extended by 9yds

Stalls: 2yrs 6F & 1M 4f – Standside Rest of 6F & 5F – Centre 1 Mile & 1 Mile 1F – Inside

Weather 2mm rain yesterday evening, dry overnight and 2.1mm earlier today. Dry and breezy by mid-afternoon. Outlook remains a little unsettled and breezy with <2mm rain expected in total rest of today and tomorrow. Max Temp 16C. ICONS * - Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described § - Indicates best drawn T - Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more H - Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc) FINAL FIGURES THIRSK 2-50 * - DUBAI HILLS....+9 * - TRAIL BLAZE....-3 * - MERCERS ROW....-6 SLINGSBY....-9 TANAWAR....-15 FULLON CLARETS....-15 TELLOVOI....-19 T - ROYAL DUCHESS....-22 T - DAGHER....-29 VECHEKA....-40 NOTES; Top three for me...usual play. THIRSK 3-25 * - ECCLESTON....+10 * - MY NAME IS RIO....+10 §* - LOVE ISLAND....+8 * - MESHARDAL....+8 * - HARWOODS VOLANTE....+8 §* - ANOTHER WISE KID....+8 BARKSTON ASH....+8 * - SEE THE SUN....+8 §* - AMBITIOUS ICARUS....+6 § - HOOF IT....+1 § - MAPPIN TIME....-3 T* - LINKS DRIVE LADY....-8 § - REX IMPERATOR....-8 T§* - JOHARA....-15 ADAM'S ALE....-25 T - ENGLISHMAN....-28 GEORGE DRYDEN....-28 MAJESTIC MYLES....-29 T - SOUVILLE....-30 H - SNAP SHOTS....-39 NOTES: Loving this. My kind of race but it's got me rubbing my chin right enough. I have middle the place I'd least like to be drawn, but that's where the pace in this race is and I'm hoping they opt to come across to where those draw high are and help me out! I'm going to take rated horses 1, 3 and 6....dutch them and set up exotics. LOVE ISLAND will have that 20/80. I could look at this race from a plethora of angles and come up with many different conclusions and so I'm going to go with my numbers, take my assessment of how this will be run as solid and play as above. From a stats point of view both MY NAME IS RIO and MESHARDAL have cracking good chances, both having ticks in all three boxes (ground, track, trip), the last named 1-1 on the ground, a 32% strike rate at the trip and 1-3 at Thirsk. MY NAME IS RIO - very similar statistically and like I say, this is a cracker. GOODWOOD 7-45 T - MUSTAQBAL....-14 * - UNCLE DERMOT....-16 * - EMBANKMENT....-25 SHOWTIME BLUES....-26 SAINT POIS....-30 - NR VELOCITER....-35 CALTRA COLLEEN....-38 AVALANCHE EXPRESS....-40 MAC'S POWER....-40 LIVE DANGEROUSLY....-40 JERSEY BULL....-40 NOTES: I am thinking, given the Ratings and the fact this is a race that has no fewer than 6 x 3-y-o's taking part....I'll swerve it. HAMILTON 5-55 * - A LOVEABLE ROGUE....+15 T§ - GOLD BEAU....+9 - NR T - MUNJALLY....+9 T§* - RAISE A BILLION....+2 T* - LAZY DAYS IN LOULE....+3 NEW LEASE OF LIFE....-3 T§* - SECRET CITY....-7 T§ - JOHN COFFEY....-7 PITT RIVERS....-12 T - BEAUTY'S FORTE....-17 CLEVER LOVE....-19 NOTES: I'll have rated horses 1, 4 and 6 (SECRET CITY with GOLD BEAU out), to a dutch, it's RAISE A BILLION getting my 20/80 and we'll look at the exotics, too. HAMILTON 6-25 T* - RURAL CELEBRATION....+11 T§* - ECONOMIC CRISIS....+9 T§ - PEARL EARING....+9 T* - JAMESBO'S GIRL....+9 * - ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI....+8 * - CLASSY ANNE....+8 TH* - PEARL BLUE....+7 T* - AS GOOD AS GOLD....+7 § - BLUE SONIC....-5 T - GUISHAN....-7 T - CADEAUX POWER....-8 T§ - PULL THE PLUG....-12 NOTES: It's the figures/market I'll trust and they mirror each other with regards my top one. The 20/80 RURAL CELEBRATION and the two underneath with him for a dutch...exotics, too. HAMILTON 7-30 T* - POLARISATION....+11 T* - SHERIFF OF NAWTON....+9 T* - ESTEAMING....+8 * - CORTON LAD....+8 T - FIRST SITTING....+5 * - GWORN....-8 T* - TRENDSETTER....-11 T - INNOCENT TOUCH....-19 RALPHY LAD....-24 - NR T - SIR JACK LAYDEN....-27 NAKEETA....-40 EMPRESS ALI....-40 T - DARK RULER....-40 T - OSKAR DENARIUS....-40 CRANACH....-40 NOTES: The only 3-y-o tops my figures and, if they are right and the market isn't wrong, he'll take a bit of beating. I'll use my top three and we'll see how we get on. HAMILTON 8-05 * - ROCK CANYON....+8 T* - HENRY MORGAN....+8 * - YA BOY SIR....+3 * - GONINODAETHAT....-4 T - GEIRGE BAILEY....-7 T - LIZZY'S DREAM....-16 NOTES: I would be thinking the winner is in my top pair...it had better be or I lose money. NEWCASTLE 6-15 * - LOTHAIR....+9 * - DANOT....+8 T§ - RIOJA DAY....+8 VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR....+/-0 §* - INDEGO BLUES....-7 § - SHERIAN....-16 § - DESTINATION AIM....-25 - NR ORBIT THE MOON....-26 ORION'S BOW....-32 IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS....-35 DREAM SCENARIO....-40 NOTES: I will work this to October Rules....top three dutch, a 20/80 LOTHAIR and exotics. Not one I am overly keen on. NEWCASTLE 6-50 T* - THE LOCK MASTER....+3 H* - BAYAN KASIRGA....-9 * - CARD HIGH....-14 - NR T - TESTA ROSSA....-22 TENHOO....-27 ABRIAL'S HOPE....-31 T - SLUNOVRAT....-32 DIFFERENT SCENARIO....-40 BLADES LAD....-40 STANARLEY PIC....-40 BULAS BELLE....-40 CLEAR SPELL....-40 JOYFUL STAR....-40 NOTES: I will simply play my top rated here. NEWCASTLE 7-20 §* - BIG STORM COMING....+10 IM DAPPER TOO....+8 * - TED'S BROTHER....+2 §* - SOOQAAN....-5 T - HAIDEES REFLECTION....-7 § - ROYAL HOLIDAY....-10 ROSY RYAN....-20 § - BLUE MAISEY....-24 § - LAZARUS BELL....-27 MOLLY APPROVE....-27 ILLUSTIOUS PRINCE....-28 § - NEWMARKET WARRIOR....-33 AHOY THERE....-35 T - LEONARD THOMAS....-39 NOTES: I am liking my figures for this race. Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 will be dutched, it's a 20/80 my top rated and exotics. NEWCASTLE 7-55 T* - CAIUS COLLEGE GIRL....+15 ESCRICK....+9 PUNK ROCKER....+/-0 * - ARMELLE....-15 ANOTHER ROYAL....-20 MILADY EILEEN....-33 PRYERS PRINCESS....-40 MAGH MEALL....-40 COOL MUSIC....-40 NOTES; We have 6 x 3-y-o's in here with several open to improvement....none mores that PUNK ROCKER. It is a race I will simply watch. NEWMARKET 5-50 DEEDS NOT WORDS....+10 T§ - JAN VAN HOOF....+9 * - JUNGLE BAY....+8 * - REGAL PARADE....-4 FLYING FANTASY....-11 HOPE AND FAITH....-13 - NR DIAMOND LADY....-14 - NR COOL BAHAMIAN....-21 STELLARTA....-32 LADY HORATIA....-33 § - DON'T HAVE IT THEN....-36 § - ROYAL MEZYAN....-36 T§ - ART OBSESSION....-37 T - STONEFIELD FLYER....-39 NOTES: Only two of these have winning form on the going as described when I rated this one but the sun is up and it might well be drying out a bit. Based on what I have now I will work with rated horses 2, 3 and 4 but how to play will be decided nearer the off time. Have a brilliant day and the best of luck Kindest regards Ron

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