I got up this morning to weather more suited to late October/early November. Last night the girls were in as many layers as it is possible to wear, under blankets, whilst sitting in the living room watching a movie. I did offer to put the heating on for them but they said they’d “tough it out”.
I was really pleased with my decision to abstain yesterday and despite the figures doing just fine, those 3-y-o’s are really causing an issue right now. This will soon level off but this race at Carlisle demonstrates what I mean:
* – CORTON LAD….+11 – 2ND 8/1
T* – ARIZONA JOHN….+10 – 3RD 12/1
* – KIWAYU….-1
* – TRIPLE EIGHT….-10
* – DANCE KING….-11
MORE MISCHIEF….-40 – WON 6/4F
RESULT – The lowest rated horses, a 3-y-o, beats my 5 y-o top rated by a neck. All previous runs by the winner had been in Class 5 and with just four previous runs on the board was simply not “rateable” accurately….obviously! Close to a very nice result but that’s life.
The Ratings are most definitely sorting out the older horse, this race spot on in that regard but getting a handle on that younger horse, working as I do, was not possible.
We have Goodwood starting tomorrow and a very mixed forecast. A few cracking good handicaps to get stuck into there and hopefully we’ll get a going guide we can trust and make a few £’s profit.
The weather will again play a part today.
Ayr is likely to see rain from around 7-00am this morning and it’s not set to stop until about 6-00pm.
Windsor looks set fair, getting a bit breezy through the afternoon but that should ease before racing starts.
It is the last time Richard Hughes will ride there and it would not surprise me to see him riding a few winners….could he go through the card? I know he thinks a lot of the ride in the first and I’m expecting NISSER to win that.
I’m not going to play the rated races at Ayr based on the figures I have now as it could be a lot worse underfoot by the time they start racing. Windsor should be fine.
Ayr / Mon 27 Jul
Updated @ Sun 26 Jul
Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in Places (GoingStick: 8.0 on Sunday at 07:15)
Rails: Stands side rail in 4m. Rails out 6m from innermost position adding approx. 18yds to distances 7f to 1m2f and 36yds to 1m5f.
Stalls: 5f&6f: Stands Side 7f: Outside Remainder: Inside
Weather Past 24hrs = dry, sunny spells, max. 19c. Sun – dry start then rain from 1pm (5 – 10 mm) Mon – rain a.m. turning drier through afternoon (< 5mm) Recent rainfall: Mon 20th - 4mm;Tues 21st- 0.5mm;Fri 24th - 0.5mm Windsor / Mon 27 Jul Updated @ Sun 26 Jul Going/Track Good to Soft. (GoingStick: 7.1 on Sunday at 09:00) Rails: Inner of Straight has been dolled out 15yds at 6f and 6yds at the Winning Line (A 3yd inner strip of fresh ground has been provided by this). Top bend dolled out 4yds from normal inner configuration, adding 22yds to race distances of 1m+. Stalls: 1m 3f abt 135yds and 1m 2f abt 7yds:- centre. Remainder:- inside. Weather 34.5mm Rainfall Friday. Dry overnight. 0.5mm rainfall at 09.15 am today (Sunday), light drizzle at present. Sunday:- cloudy start with showers developing from mid morning, some of these showers have the potential to become heavy at times 18c. Monday:- dry and bright start with showery conditions from late morning to mid afternoon 19c. ICONS * - Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described § - Indicates best drawn T - Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more H - Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc) FINAL FIGURES AYR 2-30 T§* - EXOTIC GUEST....+11 T§* - ORBIT THE MOON....+11 T§ - DOC CHARM....+10 T§* - NEW BIDDER....+9 * - LADY DESIRE....+9 * - ROCK CANYON....+1 § - MONEL....-8 T - ROYAL CONNOISSEUR....-11 T - LOTHAIR....-21 T - ALHELLA....-32 FINDOG....-40 AYR 3-00 T§* - SECRET MILLIONAIRE....+10 §* - SAXONETTE....+8 §* - TADALAVIL....+8 * - GONINODAETHAT....+1 CHOOKIE'S LASS....-5 T§ - BLUE SONIC....-18 T - CAPTAIN SCOOBY....-18 CHEENI....-31 BUSY BIMBO....-33 T - LILY MORTON....-40 AYR 4-05 * - TAGTALE....+5 T - HELLBENDER....-6 T - CAPTAIN WHOOSH....-14 T - ORIENT SKY....-25 T - MR COOL CASH....-26 T - MOONBI CREEK....-40 BANNOCK TOWN....-40 LET RIGHT BE DONE....-40 T - CHARAVA....-40 AYR 4-40 T - AGADOO....+7 T* - TANAWAR....+4 T* - RAISE A BILLION....-8 PITT RIVERS....-9 DECLAMATION....-15 TIGER'S HOME....-24 RIOJA DAY....-26 T - DESIRE....-26 MYSTICAL KING....-40 T - WARAPITO....-40 AYR 5-10 T* - ROUSAYAN....+10 T* - TRINITY STAR....+9 T* - ECHO OF LIGHTNING....+1 * - SILVER RIME....-7 TECTONIC....-12 * - ANOTHER FOR JOE....-17 * - GWORN....-21 DUBAI HILLS....-26 T - OFF THE PULSE....-40 NEWMARKET WARRIOR....-40 WINDSOR 7-00 * - PERFECT ALCHEMY....+6 * - SARANGOO....+/-0 PAINT THE STAR....-10 QUITE A STORY....-35 BARBS PRINCESS....-36 LEAD A MERRY DANCE....-40 BOOGANGOO....-40 MEHRONISSA....-40 HEARTSONG....-40 NOTES: All three rated races are particularly poor races. If I get involved at all today it will be to October Rules only and my guess is I'll most likely be rearranging my office! In this race Hughes rides a 3-y-o for Hannon that is on a roll right now and it's sitting third best In the 8-00pm Hughes rides a 3-y-o for Osbourne and it again sits third best on my figures. In the 8-35pm (and I have no control over this!), he's riding for the Moore yard and yet agin, his mount sits third best. That is a dog of a race and his mount has had three runs only, on grass, on the flat, and it was unplaced each time. It last raced 116 days ago over hurdles and it was pulled up. In the three races it completed over obstacles before that it finished 6th of seven, 10th of 14, 14th of 14 and 11th of 11. If Hughes gets that thing home in front, I'd be asking questions! WINDSOR 8-00 * - CHORAL FESTIVAL....+2 TOPTEMPO....+/-0 BORN TO BE BAD....-1 OCEAN APPLAUSE....-15 * - EVERVESCENT....-19 ELUSIVE GUEST....-22 OUR QUEENIE....-38 TAINTED LOVE....-40 MEMORIA....-40 WINDSOR 8-35 * - KHEE SOCIETY....-18 * - PAT'S LEGACY....-21 SHALIANZI....-32 OSKAR DENARIUS....-40 VAQUELY SPANISH....-40 HALLINGS COMET....-40 MOLLY CAT....-40 MANDY'S BOY....-40 Have a brilliant day and the best of luck Kindest regards Ron