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Today’s Ratings and Advice 25/07/15

Ron RobinsonI think it fair to say that the advice in the second Newsletter to stick to betting in Yorkshire yesterday was sound. The only horse I myself had a very small 20/80 on in the Thirsk 4-45, PUNK ROCKER, winning by a cosy neck….that horse will win again in higher grade.

At York the only one of the two races I played produced a little bit of profit as MON BRAV came from last to first, winning at 7/1.

TODAY

We are very light on rated races despite their being six meetings and I’ll be honest, I’m very much wondering what to do.

The rains have come and decimated my prep work for all tracks south of Birmingham.

I have worked on the Ascot 3-15, a (currently), 29 runner event in which now only nine have winning form on the going following that rain. Non-runners are guaranteed, the draw bias I have found (high end of middle/high), will most definitely be negated and it would be a complete nonsense for me to send you figures for a 29 runner race, then for us to find we only have half the field going racing. You simply could not use them.

Newmarket too caught it’s share of rainfall, currently declaring soft. I have provided you with two races from there but will not be adding advice as to how I myself will be working them because again, we’ll have non-runners to deal with (probably), and the races then become “different”.

Lingfield….currently declared good to firm but they know they are getting that rain and there is no way they will be racing on good to firm ground. I have the 7-00pm race there prepped but have not included final figures for that event yet.

Salisbury have seen more than 23mm of rain hit them and suggest they are good, good to soft in places….but more rain was due to hit them after 4-00pm, when that description was provided and again, until I have a definite going guide from that track, I will hold back my figures for the one rated race I have worked on, the 6-15pm.

It would appear the other side of the Pennines to where I am, and all points north over there, got away with it. We had a good old soaking on Wirral yesterday and if Chester of Haydock had been racing my guess is I would be advising the same as for those tracks above.

What I propose to do today is provide the work I can now, and more again later, once we know exactly what it is we are dealing with. I will only be punting those races at Newcastle and York.

Below you have my figure for:

NEWCASTLE 3-20
NEWCASTLE 5-05
YORK 2-20
YORK 3-30
NEWMARKET 2-30
NEWMARKET 3-05

If I can get anything like an accurate handle on those other races I have prepped you will receive a second Newsletter containing figures for:

ASCOT 3-15
LINGFIELD 7-00
SALISBURY 6-15

That Salisbury race is not one I’d be playing myself anyway, to be honest

It is a great shame Ascot has been hit by that lot yesterday and as I watched those rains hitting the trio of RUK presenters yesterday I was asking myself, would they race if it were not King George day? Ascot does drain quickly and they might get temperatures high enough to held dry it out a bit – but I cannot factor if’s, but and maybe’s into my figures, unfortunately.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Ascot / Sat 25 Jul
Updated @ Sat 25 Jul

Going/Track Soft (GoingStick: Standside: 8.3, Centre: 8.4, Farside: 8.2, Round: 7.6 on Friday at 08:00)

Rails: The rail on the round course has been moved 3yds out from it’s innermost position from the 1m 4f start to the home straight to provide fresh ground today. Increasing the distances by approx the following: 1m 4f: 12yds

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside

Weather 35mm rain Yesterday, dry since 1am. A mainly dry breezy day forecast, an occasional shower possible.

Newcastle / Sat 25 Jul
Updated @ Sat 25 Jul

Going/Track GOOD to FIRM-watered (GoingStick: 8.0 on Friday at 16:00)

Rails: Rail in original positions (same as Northumberland Plate meeting).

Stalls: Straight races: CENTRE Round races: INSIDE

Watering: Watered. Straight course has had between 14-20mm & Round course 10mm this week

Weather Cooler than of late with temps between 10c (morning) & 16c this pm. Overcast with sunny spells. Chance of a shower around 6pm.

Newmarket / Sat 25 Jul
Updated @ Sat 25 Jul

Going/Track Soft Going Stick reading to be taken shortly

Stalls: Stand Side Course 10f & 13f Centre Remainder Stand Side

Weather 35mm of rain on Friday & overnight. Currently overcast, windy and raining lightly. Due to clear and brighten up from mid morning. Saturday; Overnight rain clearing during the morning to leave a drier & brighter afternoon.

Salisbury / Sat 25 Jul
Updated @ Sat 25 Jul

Going/Track Last 3F – Good to Soft Remainder – Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 8.2 on Friday at 16:00)

Stalls: 5F, 6F & 1M – Far side 7F – Centre

Weather Friday – 27mm rain Saturday – dry, sunny spells, moderate breeze, 19’c.

York / Sat 25 Jul
Updated @ Sat 25 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm (GoingStick: 7.5 overall. Going stick in home straight; Far Side; – 7.2; Centre – 7.3; Stands Side – 7.2 on Friday at 13:30)

Rails: Racing on home bend on inside extension – reducing official race distances for races of one mile and over by 24 yards.

Stalls: 5f – farside; 6f 2yo – farside; 5f89yrds and 6f 3yo+ – centre, remainder – inside rail.

Watering: 2mm irrigation applied Friday night to maintain.WeatherRainfall of 5mm Sunday; 0.5mm Wednesday. Dry since. Saturday morning – dry, cool and cloudy. Met office forecast: Saturday – largely dry, bright and sunny spells – 18 degrees.

Lingfield Park / Sat 25 Jul
Updated @ Sat 25 Jul

Going/Track Good to Soft (Soft in places 4f to 7.5f) (GoingStick: 6.6 on Saturday at 06:30)

Rails: Rail will be dolled out by 5 yards on the stands side. No alteration to distances.

Stalls: Turf; 5f & 7f Stands Side, 7f 140yds Centre AWT; Inside

Weather 20mm rain yesterday and overnight. F’cast; Today looks mainly dry with sunny spells.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

YORK 2-20

* – MONT RAS….+13
* – ALEJANDRO….+8
* – ALFRED HUTCHINSON….-8
* – AZAGAL….-9
SALATEEN….-16
T* – MAJOR CRISPIES….-22
T* – ATHLETIC….-25
T* – ABOVE THE REST….-25
T – CAPTAIN BOB….-30
WITHERNSEA….-40
T – MORACHE MUSIC….-40

NOTES: My top pair come from the David O’Meara yard and both look to have outstanding chances not only on my figures but also from a statistical point of view. Both have ticks in all three boxes (ground, trip and track), but it’s ALEJANDRO’s track stat (2-5) that sways me towards him for my 20/80. His stablemate is 1-4 but has a superb 71% strike rate on the ground (5-7) compared to the 44% (4-9) of my selected’s.

It’s a little cracker…looking forward to this one.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MONT RAS, ALEJANDRO
20/80 – ALEJANDRO
EXOTICS – MONT RAS, ALEJANDRO, ALFRED HUTCHINSON

YORK 3-30

§* – ALGAR LAD….+11
§* – BLAINE….+9
* – BOGART….+8
* – GRAN CANARIA QUEEN….+8
§* – SEE THE SUN….+8
* – WILLBEME….+8
§ – HIGHLAND ACCLAIM….+5
* – MESHARADAL….+2
* – KIMBRELLA….+2
§* – LEXI’S HERO….-2
T* – TAZEEL….-2
T* – SHORE STEP….-4
H* – HOOF IT….-7
§* – AL KHAN….-9
* – PIPERS NOTE….-12
§* – ADAM’S ALE….-14
* – TANGERINE TREES….-18
ENCORE D’OR….-29
§ – ADDICTIVE DREAM….-38
H – GRANDAD’S WORLD….-39

NOTES: Seriously looking forward to this one and if I have read the draw correctly then I’m thinking O’Meara pulls another rabbit from the bag. ALGAR LAD….3-9 on the ground, 1-2 at York, and the trip is fine.

Of course, he could be about to stick me up good and proper. I have come close to following HIGHLAND ACCLAIM over a cliff and he’s got a very good draw to run from today. His record on this ground though is 0-10 and I have this sneaking feeling they are simply waiting for the Ayr Gold Cup.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – ALGAR LAD, BLAINE, SEE THE SUN
20/80 – ALGAR LAD
EXOTICS – ALGAR LAD, BLAINE, SEE THE SUN

NEWCASTLE 3-20

* – ORDER OF SERVICE….+10
* – TWIN APPEAL….-3
* – VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR….-4
LORD OF THE ROCK….-5
* – RALPHY BOY….-16
* – SHADOWTIME….-16
T* – KARAKA JACK….-17
* – REGAL DAN….-24

NOTES: I will keep this very simple in both rated races here….top three for everything.

NEWCASTLE 5-05

* – ZEBELLINI….+14
* – PAVERS STAR….+9
* – NICEONEMYSON….+1
* – ROY’S LEGACY….-8
* – SUNRISE DANCE….-11
§ – UNDER APPROVAL….-13
COMANCHE GREY….-21
§ – YA BOY SIR….-29
T§ – INVINCIBLE LAD….-36
H§ – GO CHARLIE….-40
CLABARE….-40
§ – SHAMKHAN….-40
GRENADE….-40

NEWMARKET 2-30

GLOBAL FORCE….+1
T – MARTINIQUAISE….-5
T* – SPIRIT OF THE LAW….-14
* – CALM ATTITUDE….-14
THE GAY CAVALIER….-27
MY REWARD….-40
NAYEL….-40
T – ARCHIE….-40

NEWMARKET 3-05

RISEN SUN….+11
* – WEE JEAN….+10
T* – ASSAULT ON ROME….+9
T* – ALEXANDERKOLLONTAI….-20
TAQNEYYA….-22
T – BIMBO….-26
GLEAMING GIRL….-29

The Newmarket races are dominated by 3-y-o’s and if I do send out a second Newsletter (that will only happen if I am happy with the going forecasts and I not have to re-write the lot), I will maybe have a little something to add.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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