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Today’s Ratings and Advice 24/08/15

Ron RobinsonWe have, thankfully, just 37 days left of the flat racing season. I stop rating flat races from October 1st and concentrate on making sure we turn a profit from our betting over the winter, my favourite period of the racing year.

I’m considering taking my break in November this year, before the NH season really gets going, as the last two seasons we have most certainly seen that if you get involved before the Badger meeting at Wincanton, you are in a minus position and I’ll not be going down that route this term.

I may also look to take a break in February next year, before getting all things Cheltenham ready for us to make a profit during the greatest show on earth!

That means I’ll have more prepping time during October and April and I’m confident this will help to improve things on all fronts.

THE HORSES HEAD

No, not a pub.

I’m simply asking the question, wouldn’t you love to know what goes through a horses head when it goes racing?

I didn’t bet a bean in the end yesterday because they seen a bit more rain down Brighton way and I believed my money to be worth more to me than wishing to waste it playing that nonsense they had put on.

I ask what goes through a horses head because yesterday a horse, VINCENTTI, won for the first time in something like three years. He managed to win a Class 5 and it may now be a million years before he wins again. Yet the horse had run MOVIESTA to a photo finish in a decent race at York two years ago and, whilst that one went on to win Group races, this one was happy to descend to mediocrity.

I’ve always been of a mind it’s a mental thing. If you had done something that had caused you pain….and Mo Farrah, regardless of how fit he is, would have suffered pain over the weekend winning his race….would you have the mental capacity to do it again?

I do not enjoy punting those very low grade races for this very reason. Some just do not enjoy doing it any more. However, they are turned out, they’ll race but, the second pressure is applied by their jockey, they stop underneath them. We had that happen with Rosie’s Lady. She was decent enough in her grade but was injured (nothing serious), when running third in Bob Champion’s Legends race at Aintree. She would be happy enough on the gallops after that, our trainer more than happy with her form at home but the second she put foot on the racecourse…didn’t want to know. I remember her running at Chester one day and she was going well, lying in just behind the favourite. Joe Fanning then asked to go forward to try and win her race and she dropped the lot. She finished tailed off and Joe looked totally bemused when he got off her. He asked me if she had ever bled…which she hadn’t and whilst those that had been competitive looked like it, Rosie was led away looking like she’d yet to go racing.

Who know what’s going on in their heads?

THE T FACTOR

Gary e-mailed me last night, after posting up his website stats. He simply said, “hope you like the look of the black type entries!”

I knew, following the previous NH season, that those icons would be where we needed to go for the flat racing season but I had hoped it would be the T§* that would produce our profits. They have but, the figures for those horses disappoint a tad.

The issue has been, small fields and, very few horses travel these days. We have had just 136 such horses to work with since May 1st. I’m pleased to find that 10 have won, producing a profit of 41.89 points but I had expected more runners/more profit.

However, when I’ve been able to correctly provide you with a draw bias to work with and that § icon has been added to the T indicating a traveller, then those having been disciplined in their betting and having kept on top of Gary’s stats, will have worked with 277 bets, found 35 winners, which have produced a profit of 161.45 points.

I was recently discussing with a member, who was advising me he was struggling to find a way to win with my figures, whether or not he had been taking advantage of Gary’s work. He was honest enough to say he hadn’t and I suggested he did. I have no idea whether or not he did but I hope so.

What I do here is constantly think of ways to work with the figures, or consider additional things I can add to the mix, that will increase the profitability of the Ratings because I genuinely believe they are the best available.

RACING POST FLAGSHIP TIPSTERS

They went into York Ebor week 38.45 points down over the three previous weeks I have been monitoring their performance.

Over the week – Sunday to Saturday – they advised staking 51 points and recouped 20.5

They finished their week 69.04 points down over the last four week period. During the Ebor meeting Tom Segal and Paul Kealy didn’t find a single winner and six of the 20.5 points recouped came courtesy of a 5/1 winner on the Tuesday. That was the only winner five of their tipsters found between them.

It has been, as I’ve said before, a very weird August with so much bad racing and poor weather.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Brighton / Mon 24 Aug
Updated @ Sun 23 Aug

Going/Track Good to Soft (GoingStick: 7.8 on Sunday at 06:45)

Rails: Depending on damage on Sunday rail may be moved overnight.

Stalls: 1m2f & 1m4f Outside, Rest Inside

Weather 6mm rain this morning. F’cast; A breezy afternoon with sunny spells. Monday looks wet all day with a Met Office weather warning

Leicester / Mon 24 Aug
Updated @ Sun 23 Aug

Going/Track Good to Firm (Selective watering if necessary) (GoingStick: 7.5 on Sunday at 07:15)

Stalls: Straight- Stands side Round- Inside

Weather Dry overnight. Forecast: Sunday- Dry during the morning with possible showers late afternoon max temp 25c.Monday-Dry at first with possible rain from late morning to early evening max temp 15c.

Carlisle / Mon 24 Aug
Updated @ Sun 23 Aug

Going/Track Good to Soft, Soft in Places (GoingStick: 7.8 on Friday at 08:00)

Rails: Inside rail from 7f moved out 2yrds round Old Stable Bend, adding 2yrds for all races further than 6f

Stalls: Inside, except 1m 3f outside

Watering: Watering: 4mm put onto the bend into the home straight and areas of the 6f Chute on Friday.

Weather 21mm of rain in past 24 hours. Forecast Sunday up to 23 deg C, Monday max of 17 deg C. Chance of a shower over Sunday night, otherwise dry.

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BRIGHTON 2-30

RORING SAMSON….-8
* – TIME MEDICEAN….-13
HATTA STREAM….-23
T – TELEGRAPH….-26
* – PANDAR….-32
BREAN SPLASH SUSIE….-40
COMPTON PRINCE….-40
KINNARA….-40
T – TANCRED….-40

BRIGHTON 4-30

* – LUTINE CHARLIE….+13
* – MALIH….+8
* – OLNEY LAS….+8
* – ROCKIE ROAD….-1
* – PELAGIAN….-3
IMPROVIZED….-18
SALVADO….-24
FOLLOW THE FAITH….-32
HONITON LACE….-39
T – CERISE FAITH….-40

BRIGHTON 5-00

BYRD IN HAND….-3
CAHALA DANCER….-35
CROWNING STAR….-40
NIFTY KIER….-40
STEEVO….-40
H – PUDDING….-40
EL DUQUE….-40
GOODWOOD MOONLIGHT….-40
DIPPINGANDDIVING….-40
KEEP ‘R LIT….-40

BRIGHTON 5-30

* – PORT LAIRGE….+12
* – GOOD LUCK CHARM….+8
UNDER SEIGE….-5
EVIDENT….-14
BRITISH EMBASSY….-19
* – WORLD RECORD….-19
TAHCHEE….-40
LETHAL LEGACY….-40

LEICESTER 6-25

* – KIRTLING….+15
THE THIRD MAN….+11
* – MORUADH….+10
* – MOSHE….-4
* – SCARLET SASH….-15
* – SAINT THOMAS….-30
CAPTAIN SWIFT….-40
HESKA….-40
T – RACE TO GLORY….-40
SHALIMAH….-40

NOTES: As you know, Leicester is next in line to Windsor for me, for a nuke to be dropped on it but we’ve done ok there this season and I’ll trust my numbers are right

Dutch rated horses 1, 3 and 4, exotics and my 20/80 going to KIRTLING….we’ll see what happens.

LEICESTER 7-25

* – CONSISTENT….+1
TH* – DOVIL’S DUEL….-5
* – GENERALYSE….-9
CLOAK AND DEGAS….-9
* – BOGSNOG….-12
* – GOADBY….-27
STEVENTON STAR….-32
HARDY BLACK….-37
ONLY TEN PER CENT….-40

NOTES: I have to work with my top three but I’d not be confident of drawing here. A race full of horses with questions marks over them but hopefully an October Rules PLAY BAGS ME SOMETHING.

LEICESTER 7-55

PHARMECEUTICAL….+3
SUREWECAN….-1
DR RED EYE….-3
* – MEZZOTINT….-6
* – SHADY MCCOY….-10
ZESHOV….-40
DEEP BLUE SEA….-40
CELTIC SIXPENCE….-40
ANASTAZIA….-40

NOTES: Four x 3-y-o’s in here and I reckon one will be winning it. Two of them top my figures and I’ll have them with MEZZOTINT in my usual kind of play…..dutch and exotics and I’ll go 20/80 PHARMACEUTICAL because that MEZZOTINT is a scallywag who’s as likely to miss the break and leave his race in the stalls, as his is to justify favouritism.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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