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Today’s Ratings and Advice 24/07/15

Ron RobinsonThis season I had been looking very much forward to seeing how those horses indicated T§* would get along but they seem to be very few and far between. I have been looking at the number of horses that are actually travelling to race meetings and they are very few and far between, unless the racing takes place in Scotland. The problem we then have is that very few of the races we are currently viewing has a perceivable draw bias, because the numbers taking part do not allow for one.

I read with interest yesterday the comments from both bookmakers and punters that had attended Bath a couple of days ago, when they opted to put on an eight race card, which resulted in two three runner races which do nothing for layers or players. I would never bet on such races, nor lay horses either so, what is the point?

The plain fact is, we now have to much racing, not enough horses to go around, trainers will not travel their horses for such meetings and (midweek), all we see are the same horses taking each other on, on a regular basis.

I had worked on a race a few days ago in which nine went to post. Six of the nine had competed against each other not so long ago, at the same track. As one on course layer was reported as saying, “It’s a joke and they are killing the goose that laid the once golden egg. To much racing is putting people off coming to the course”.

This Saturday will again be saturated with racing, six meetings taking place. Sunday…just two. Why not have 4 + 4?

TIPPEDTOLOSE

I am enjoying producing the work for the new website as I’m now looking at how I’m directing a race for laying horses, “in print”, so to speak. The work I do there is created around two hours after my morning newsletters go out and reading it all back I’m finding there are things in this that Post Racing members should also have access to.

When we have so much racing I have to be prudent in how much I get into a Newsletter every morning because of time constraints….I know the vast majority of you like to have this at 7-30am latest each morning.

Yesterday though I was thinking that I must get out some of the findings from my work at Tippedtolose out to you…have a read of this and you’ll see what I mean:

In that 7-55pm event at Doncaster the 3-y-o’s outnumbered the older horses this morning and that sent a shiver down the old spine. The two provisional lays mentioned this morning are from the five younger horses that were taking part at that point (two have been withdrawn), and what I do know, from the eight year record of this race, is that 3-y-o’s generally win it, five of those eight coming from that age group.

So, if that stat is rock solid then one of the pair suggested as being provisional lays this morning, plus PANDA SPIRIT, will take home the first prize.

The winner has come from the front two on the tissue in seven of the last eight runnings. One of the two mentioned this morning, therefore, is “most likely”.

On stats relating to trip, going and track I’d fancy neither, to be honest. I personally will lay neither but with MAMBO PARADISE having at least won on turf, if I were to punt this race (which I will not be), then I would be with the second favourite. and not ALJAFER.

MELODIUS….a 3-y-o that rates 4th best on my figures. The other 3-y-o in here rates top of my figures and trades 2.98 as I type. This race has no history so we are blind in that regard. It’s simply going to come down to trusting my figures which, given how they are performing right now, is no hinderance.

If ground preference was to be taken as Gospel (it won’t be, given how lightly raced they are), then my top rated holds the aces being 1-2 on it, MELODIOUS having tried it once and failing, finishing 8th of nine on debut as a 2-y-o.

She won her first two races this season before taking on Class 3 company and finishing 6th of 10 behind the Irish Oaks winner, Covert Love, beaten just less than eight lengths. Not a bad old form line!

I would be concerned that both her wins to date have come on soft and good to soft and on that basis, and given I am happy with my figures, I will punt the favourite and lay this one to minimal liabilities as both are quite simply unexposed over the trip and the decision is based only on my figures and that concern regarding the ground for the second favourite, which might be negated by the step up in trip.

TODAY’S LAYS

MELODIOUS (Newbury 8-45)

Obviously with members having subscribed only for the lay advice (which is comprehensive and profitable), will be the only people that have the lay advice, my spotting up this most likely to win our rated races should be in your domain.

TODAY

We have rain a coming!

I am splitting today’s Newsletter into two as I want to monitor what is happening and most of today’s action takes place this evening anyway.

It does look like this rain will be mainly down south (which could spog my afternoon Ascot figures I’m afraid), but I’m going to leave sending the second Newsletter out as late as possible.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Ascot / Fri 24 Jul
Updated @ Thu 23 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: Standside: 8.0, Centre: 8.4, Farside: 7.9, Round: 7.4 on Thursday at 08:00)

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside

Weather 1mm rain Monday, 0.5mm Wednesday. Forecast to be mainly dry with sunny spells today. Friday starts dry but is forecast to be wet through the afternoon and overnight. Saturday is due to be mainly dry.

Chepstow / Fri 24 Jul
Updated @ Thu 23 Jul

Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in places – Watered Dry overnight (GoingStick: 8.7 on Wednesday at 06:00)

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f & 1m Centre 1m4f & 2m InsideWatering: 8mm of irrigation applied all round on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Weather Forecast: Dry with sunny spells on Thursday, max temp 19C. Rain on Friday, 8-10mm, max 15C.

Thirsk / Fri 24 Jul
Updated @ Thu 23 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm (Watering) (GoingStick: 9.5 on Thursday at 16:00)

Rails: Home (Wood) Bend dolled out circa 7 yards from its inner line adding circa 20 yards to the 7f standard distance.

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands’ Side 7f: Inside

Watering: Watering to hold Good to Firm.WeatherFair, with 10% possibility of light rain later in the day.

Newmarket / Fri 24 Jul
Updated @ Thu 23 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm (GoingStick: 8.6 on Thursday at 12:00)

Stalls: Stand Side Course 10f & 12f Centre Remainder Far Side

Weather 2.5mm of rain on Wednesday. Thursday; Largely dry & with sunny spells. Friday; Rain, some of which will be heavy. Saturday; Overnight & morning showers clearing to leave a drier afternoon.

York / Fri 24 Jul
Updated @ Thu 23 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm (GoingStick: 7.6 overall. Going stick in home straight; Far Side; – 7.3; Centre – 7.3; Stands Side – 7.3 on Thursday at 08:30)

Rails: Racing on home bend on inside extension – reducing official race distances for races of one mile and over by 24 yards.

Stalls: 5f – farside; 6f 2yo – farside; 5f89yrds and 6f 3yo+ – centre, remainder – inside rail.Watering: Will irrigate Thursday night to maintain.

Weather Rainfall of 5mm Sunday; 0.5mm Wednesday. Dry since. Met office forecast: Thursday evening – largely dry and breezy. Friday – dry & bright during the day, with chance of showers during the evening – 17 degrees. Saturday – largely dry, sunny spells – 17 degrees.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

ASCOT 4-05

* – EXOSPHERE….+10
* – CRAFTMANSHIP….-4
T – MASTER OF FINANCE….-12
* – GREAT PARK….-20
FIELD OF FAME….-40
EXAMINER….-40
AZMAAM….-40

NOTES: Pat Smullen is here for one ride today, the horse he rides top my figures…by a long old way….I’ll be on straight win.

ASCOT 4-35

§* – SECRETINTHEPARK….+12
T* – DISTANT PAST….+9
T* – MIDLANDER….+9
§* – GREEN DOOR….+5
T* – BARNET FAIR….-3
T* – DESERT LAW….-8
* – MUKHMAL….-10
§ – TAAJUB….-20
§ – LADY KYLLAR….-35
DOCTOR SARDONICUS….-39
T – NORTHGATE LAD….-40

NOTES: A high draw in both this and the next rated race looks good if I am reading these races correctly. My top rated is currently around 10 on Betfair and I’ll be on 20/80, given both draw and ground look fine. Trip and track?….not so sure, hence caution advised. I would like BARNET FAIR quite a lot but for the low draw. Ground, trip and track (he’s 2-8 here), look good and I’ll have it in my dutch. GREEN DOOR is fine re. draw and ground but four previous visits here have provided nowt but grief.

MIDLANDER will be the third in my dutch. He is on a roll for a stable in some rare form right now and is 3-5 at this trip.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – SECRETINTHEPARK, MIDLANDER, BARNET FAIR
20/80 – SECRETINTHEPARK
EXOTICS – SECRETINTHEPARK, MIDLANDER, BARNET FAIR

ASCOT 5-05

§ – INDIAN TINKER….+10
§T* – SHOWSTOPPA….+9
* – SYDNEY RUFFDIAMOND….-5
§T* – FREDERIKA….-9
* – SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL….-9
* – POWERFUL WIND….-10
§* – BURNING THREAD….-10
* – FREE ZONE….-11
BRAZEN SPIRIT….-40

NOTES: The four that have raced here before have nothing to show for it, especially BURNING THREAD, who is 0-7 at Ascot. The horse doing all the singing and dancing is the 3-y-o SYDNEY RUFFDIAMOND who is 2-3 0n the ground, 2-3 at the trip and if Ascot suits, he’s likely to improve on my figure.

I will work with rated horses 2, 3 and 4 exactly as above but my 20/80 has to go to SHOWSTOPPA, who has those three icons that are driving to be as rare as rocking horse droppings right now.

THIRSK 4-45

* – WHITE FLAG….+9
§ – SAKHEE’S ROSE….+9
§ – PUNK ROCKER….-3
* – TWEETY PIE….-15
JUBILEE SONG….-22
§ – LAZY DAYS IN LOULE….-34
SWEET MISSI….-40
ELLA’S DELIGHT….-40
ASHA….-40
§ – PRYERS PRINCESS….-40

NOTES: Half the field is made up of 3-y-o’s and a brace sit third and sixth best on my figures. It’s not a race that is “grabbing me” but if I have to play it’ll most likely be just a 20/80 PUNK ROCKER.

YORK 6-30

H* – MAKIN THE RULES….+7
§* – ANOTHER ROYAL….+6
§* – SLEEPING APACHE….+5
§* – MON BRAV….+/-0
§* – SECRET CITY….-8
* – ANGELITO….-12
* – MEANDMYSHADOW….-17
* – SLINGSBY….-19
* – SECRET ASSET….-20
* – AD VITAM….-22
BOP IT….-23
ANCIENT CROSS….-26
DREESE….-33
BASHIBA….-40

NOTES: Happy to run with those having got those §* icons and sitting high on the numbers.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – ANOTHER ROYAL, SLEEPING APACHE, MON BRAV
20/80 – ANOTHER ROYAL
EXOTICS – ANOTHER ROYAL, SLEEPING APACHE, MON BRAV

YORK 8-00

§* – THORNABY NASH….+15
* – SIMPLY SHINING….+9
SPRYT….+8
§* – INTIWIN….+1
* – HANSEATIC….-1
H§ – HE’S NO SAINT….-3
* – STRONG MAN….-4
* – WOODY BAY….-5
* – JOHNNO….-10
T – HAKKA….-14
§ – GRANDEST….-17
T – NAVAJO CHIEF….-27

NOTES: I would not touch this race using stolen money. Sitting 10th best is a Sir Michael Stoute 3-y-o, making handicap debut, that has raced just twice and carries the colours you expect only very good horses to be carrying. HAKKA could be a light year ahead of these in terms of ability and I will just watch whatever happens, happen.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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