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Today’s Ratings and Advice 23/07/15

Ron RobinsonAgain extremely happy with my figures yesterday. Whilst I stuck to my guns regarding those very poor races at Bath and refused to get involved financially, the pair divided were as bad as it gets and if the figures perform in such races, it augurs very well for confidence in those races I will be playing.

The 5-10 was a shocker but the numbers produced the first three home from the top four rated – 5/1, 33/1, 3/1 – and that’s as satisfying to me as having punted a winner…or laid a loser.

The Ratings are also proving very successful in getting bad favourites beaten and yesterday and in addition to having the winner of the Bath in my top three rated I was also able to advise members over at Tippedtolose that the horse trading favourite in the morning was most certainly beatable.

This is what was posted up over there:

CLASSIC PURSUIT has a record of just one win from 13 attempts on turf. That came on July 29th 2013 when he took a Windsor juvenile maiden and is 1-19 since, that coming on the sand at Kempton in July last year.

This month seems his time of year then.

Since returning this season he has been campaigned solely on turf, his last two efforts yielding a 2nd and 3rd placing at Windsor and Leicester…the two tracks I would most like to drop a nuclear weapon on.

His Windsor form figures now read 2, 1, 9, 2. The ninth placing came when he flirted with Class 4 and he was ceremonially thumped. Looks to me as if a run of an evening down there, in Class 5 or 6 would be his ideal.

His form figures at Bath read: 7, 11 and that 11th placing came on seasonal debut this term.

This afternoon I believe he has the worst of the draw, 10 of 11 not looking generous at all. What we generally find in these races is that low, which would look to be most favourable given the way the track turns, can be a disadvantage as those “fortunate” enough to daw 1, 2, 3 or 4 have an almost Chester like bias to work with. However, they tend to go off to quickly and set it up for those drawn middle to pick them off around the outside…high have more running to do and the grade of animal on show here are not renowned for “a turn of foot”.

Given his preference for being held up he’ll need a bit of luck in running to defy 10, unless it opens up like a Red Sea.

Today’s jockey is 0-6 on 4+ year olds here over the last five seasons and trainer Ronald Harris is just 9-115 when sending this type of horse here. The one positive I can find is that when working together, and trainer putting this jockey up on one of his 4+ year olds elsewhere, they have a 2-5 (40%), strike rate.

If this was the same three (horse/jockey/trainer), working together at Windsor then I’d be in like Flynn.

With a couple of course and distance winners sitting top of my figures, my top rated still very lightly raced and seemingly improving, I’m pretty hopeful we can get the tissue favourite beaten and with no reason to think my second highest rated will not confirm the form of the race run here on June 5th, despite CLASSIC PURSUIT being better off at the weights today for a three length beating, I’ll lay the current tissue favourite.

If you lay horses or are interested in doing so, I believe Tippedtolose offers up an excellent opportunity to increase your profits.

TODAY

Very light on rated races and OF INTEREST selections today.

That means I will have time to spend on creating the 500 Club Newsletter that will set out how I will be working from October. I want it to read “right” and it will probably be tomorrow before that goes out.

What I will say is that it is now time to do this properly and give us a genuine opportunity to go racing regularly, with a top trainer/trainers and to have going racing of a Saturday a priority.

I have mentioned a few times that one of the major problems we have faced this club year has been the number of monthly subscribers leaving because of things like holidays, taking a break from betting until the NH season returns etc and since I last explained this, another six have done this. We simply cannot work this way any longer.

We need to have a membership that is 100% committed to annual membership, that fully understand that our budgets are based on the number of people involved from October each year and that by having so many leave at the end of one season makes it impossible for us to take those looking to go racing through the summer and that’s simply not acceptable.

As promised, I will then set about making the layers cover your annual membership fees.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Doncaster / Thu 23 Jul
Updated @ Wed 22 Jul

Going/Track Good to Firm Watered (GoingStick: 8.8 on Tuesday at 07:00)

Rails: The round course is railed out from 1m2f to where the round meets the straight. This adds about 15 yards to races 6 and 7

Stalls: Straight course Stands side Round course InsideWatering: Tuesday 5mm of water applied to the straight course. Wednesday 5mm-7mm of water applied to the round course.

Weather Sunday 6mm of rainfall Monday Dry temp high +22 Tuesday Dry temp high +21 Wednesday very light showers at midday temp high +16 Forecast Thursday Dry temp high +18

Newbury / Thu 23 Jul
Updated @ Wed 22 Jul

Going/Track Good to firm (Watered) (GoingStick: 6.7 on Wednesday at 16:00)

Rails: Rail will be moved out from the 8f to the 5f on the round course. The 1m2f, 1m4f and 1m5f will be 27yds longer

Stalls: Centre of course straight course Inside rail round course.

WeatherLast 24hrs 0.3mm Wednesday Dry and bright risk of isolated showers Max 20 Thursday Dry sunny spells Max 20

Sandown Park / Thu 23 Jul
Updated @ Wed 22 Jul

Going/Track Sprint Course – Good to Firm Round Course – Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: Sprint 8.5 Round 8.2 on Wednesday at 09:00)

Rails: Round course dolled out up to 4 yards from 1m to winning post, adding 15 yards to all Round Course distances.

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side (rail 3 yards in) Remainder – Inside

Watering: Depending on any rainfall this pm, the home straight of Round Course and entire Sprint Course may be watered overnight.

Weather Dry, breezy and warm day Tuesday, 25 degrees. Wednesday dry morning with chance of showers in the afternoon. Thursday dry. Wednesday 23 degrees. Thursday 21 degrees.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

SANDOWN 4-00

* – PRESBURG….+7
* – SPECIAL MISS….+/-0
CLASSIC VILLAGER….-7
H – PACK LEADER….-8
* – DOLPHIN VILLAGE….-10
* – SQUIRE….-18
T – POLAR EYES….-30
ZAMBEASY….-36
INDELIBLE INK….-40

NOTES: My second highest rated horse here is 2-4 on the ground and, 2-4 at the track. the problem may well be the trip…0-4 over 10 furlongs. My top rated has a tick in those boxes marked ground/trip/track and will get the 20/80 – they are the only two in here with wins at Sandown.. A dutch and exotics, too.

SANDOWN 5-05

* – ROYAL NORMANDY….+2
* – ROUGE NUAGE….-15
BIG WHISKEY….-17
H* – GANNICUS….-30
GOOD LUCK CHARM….-40
LETHAL LEGACY….-40
BLACK CAESAR….-40

NOTES: Happy to go straight win my top rated.

DONCASTER 6-45

* – BOGSNOG….+11
BUSH BEAUTY….+9
§* – DISCLOSURE….+9
§* – DARK CASTLE….+6
§ – STEVENTON STAR….+3
* – FORTINBRASS….-7
§ – TEETOTAL….-17
* – MINTY JONES….-20
* – FEEL THE HEAT….-22
H* – TAROOQ….-28
MINISTER OF FUN….-37

NOTES: Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 to a dutch, a 20/80 BOGSNOG and exotics.

DONCASTER 7-55

PANDA SPIRIT….+15
* – SUR EMPIRE….+14
* – ELIZONA….+8
T* – MARGARETS MISSION….-8
* – CABELO….-22
CAPELITA….-28
ALFAJER….-40
MAMBO PARADISE….-40

NOTES: Not overly keen on this race at all. I have five 3-y-o’s to look at and I’ll probably just leave this be.

NEWBURY 7-40

GROUNDWORKER….+8
* – PRINCE REGAL….+5
* – SHAMAHAN….+1
* – DOVIL’S DUEL….-11
* – FEVER FEW….-12
* – HEAD SPACE….-17
GOLD CLUB….-27
BUSH WARRIOR….-32

NOTES: As you know, I love Newbury and I am simply going to apply my figures to my betting here, in all three rated races.

NEWBURY 8-10

SONNETATION….+9
OUR QUEENIE….+9
SHARQEYH….+7
* – NO DELUSION….+6
SPIRITED ACCLAIM….-7
BRIDIE FFRENCH….-10

NEWBURY 8-45

* – SERENE BEAUTY….+1
MOONRISE LANDING….-21
* – NORTHERN MEETING….-23
MELODIUS….-33
SPACELAB….-33
NORFOLK SKY….-40

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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