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Today’s Ratings and Advice 23/06/15

Ron RobinsonAfter the punting debacle that this season was Royal Ascot (from a profiling point of view), it is good to see the figures performing superbly well. That was the case last week, too and yesterday they proved extremely accurate.

I am putting a review of last week together and will offer my thoughts. I would be interested in hearing yours, once you have read it.

The last race on the Windsor card pleased me most…and I never thought i say anything good about Windsor!

This was the advice on Tippedtolose:

“The lone Windsor event is the 8-40 and the current 2nd favourite (4.2), rates 6th best on my figures.

As long as the going remains genuinely good ground then laying is most certainly on the agenda. This horses form figures on good are: 9, 2, 2, 4, 3, 6, 2, 4

The horse has just one flat win on turf to it’s name from 17 attempts and does seem to find a way of losing, when winning is an option. That sole win on turf came on soft at Brighton, over this trip, when ridden by tonight’s jockey.

One previous trip to this track resulted in a 4th of seven on the going they will hopefully race on this evening.

Roger teal has saddled 29 runners here in the last five seasons and produced just one winner. he is currently 0-8 with 4+ year olds.

John Egan is, as I say, the only jockey to win on this horse, on turf. His record here on “like” horses reads 0-2.

This is not by any means a strong race and playing or laying would be done to minimal exposure.

TODAY’S LAYS

TILSTARR (Windsor 8-40) – proviso being it remains genuine good ground.” – UNPLACED

The Figures for that race were bang on the money:

WINDSOR 8-40

T – DALMARELLA DANCER….+2 – WON 11/2
* – CHORAL FESTIVAL….-7 – 2ND 4/1
DUTCH S….-17
AJIG….-25
* – APACHE GLORY….-25
TILSTARR….-30
MOVIE MAGIC….-40

NOTES: I will just faff about with my top two. It’s a shocker and not for getting heavily involved in.

A perfect way to end a Monday!

TODAY

It is a bit busier today. Beverley, Brighton and Leicester provide us with five Rated races and I am hopeful the figures will again produce profit.
Once I have sent out all Newsletters, set up Tippedtolose and attended yet another medical appointment this morning, I’ll be putting down something for 500 Club members to peruse.

I was discussing something with Harry Fry and we will be visiting Harry in August, to discuss our working together and for sure, we have something very interesting going on…more in that Newsletter. That’ll be a day away, as I’m not doing that “there and back” in one day!

This Newsletter will go out on Thursday.

ASSUMPTIONS:
Beverley / Tue 23 Jun
Updated @ Mon 22 Jun

Going/Track Good to Firm

Rails: The inside rail around the bottom bend has been moved out by circa 2 yards from the 8-furlong point (round course) to the 2-furlong point, adding 7 yards to all races over 7 furlongs and further. This creates a false rail, finishing around the 2-furlong mark in the home straight.

Stalls: Inside all racesWatering: Will monitor the forecast but might water overnight if necessary

Weather 2mm rain on Saturday afternoon 1mm rainfall so far on Monday, but risk of further showers throughout the day Tuesday – overcast, dry, 13C

Brighton / Tue 23 Jun
Updated @ Mon 22 Jun

Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 7.4 on Monday at 06:45)

Stalls: 1m2f & 1m4f Outside, the remainder Centre.

Weather 6mm rain overnight. Further 11mm today F’cast; Last of the rain now appears to be through and clearing to sunny spells and a breeze. Tuesday looks dry and with sunny spells.

Leicester / Tue 23 Jun
Updated @ Mon 22 Jun

Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places(Selective watering) (GoingStick: 7.7 on Monday at 07:15)

Stalls: Straight- Stands side Round- Inside

Weather Dry overnight.Forecast: Monday – Mainly dry with sunny spells with an outside chance of a light shower late afternoon/early evening max temp 16c.Tuesday- Dry with sunny spells max temp 20c.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BEVERLEY 3-15

* – TIN PAN ALLEY….+9
* – MAYBEME….+8
H* – PRIMOGENITURE….+4
* – KING OF THE CELTS….+2
* – MISS LUCY JANE….-6
* – SATANIC BEAT….-14
MONSEA….-19
CAPE WRATH….-40

NOTES: Good, competitive little race. My top rated is currently unbeaten at Beverley (2-2), but for sure a couple of the others also like this track, MISS LUCY JANE 2-3 here and MAYBEME 5-18.

KING OF THE CELTS is 2-9 plus 3-8 on the going as currently described and I expect him to run well.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – TIN PAN ALLEY, MAYBE ME, KING OF THE CELTS
20/80 – TIN PAN ALLEY
EXOTICS – TIN PAN ALLEY, MAYBEME, KING OF THE CELTS

BEVERLEY 4-15

* – ANEEDH….-8
* – DUKE OF YORKSHIRE….-9
* – TRIPLE EIGHT….-12
ROCK ON BOLLINSKI….-19
* – LE DELUGE….-25
VOICE FROM ABOVE….-40
GANG WARFARE….-40
SOLID JUSTICE….-40

NOTES: Not overly keen on this one. I’ll most likely work my top three to October Rules.

BRIGHTON 3-30

ROY ROCKET….+2
T* – TAHAF….-12
* – TEMPURAN….-15
TORNADO BATTLE….-30
HONG KONG JOE….-40
KICKING THE CAN….-40
RED RIVERMAN….-40

NOTES: My figures have been produced on the understanding it is genuine good ground and all three of my top rated wins have come on good to firm. It is most likely, given the weather forecast, he’ll have his ideal conditions by off time and I would thing he’ll take a bit of beating in what is a poor race. He is the only horse in here that has won at Brighton (3-3), and he is the only horse in the race to have won at this trip (1-1).

LEICESTER 7-20

* – CHAPTER AND VERSE….+3
* – DILETTA TOMASA….-5
* – GOLDEN JUBILEE….-10
* – SANDY COVE….-12
MAWASEEL….-28
HICKSTER….-40

NOTES: My top rated has ticks in all the right boxes and in a weak race I have to just work with that one. He is 2-4 when racing at Leicester….the only runner having scored here. Trip and ground look fine and he’s he play.

LEICESTER 8-25

H* – LOVING YOUR WORK….+8
* – HIGHLIFE DANCER….+/-0
* – KHESKIATO….-16
T* – SENOR GEORGE….-18
HER RED DEVIL….-40
MEDIEVAL BISHOP….-40
DISTANT HIGH….-40
KIRTLING….-40

NOTES: If HIGHLIFE DANCER puts it all in, he’ll be hard to beat and I’m just going to play my top two…dutch, have a 20/80 my top one and I’ll have an exotic. Low staking though!

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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