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Today’s Ratings and Advice 22/08/15

Ron RobinsonNo electrical malfunctions this morning (we blocked off the back of the desk – no cat access) and indeed, it was, as Michelle e-mailed me to say, very nearly a cat-astrophe.

Last night I set aside an hour to look at the stats Gary has been producing for you, paying attention most to the T Factor. It was those horses indicated T§* that I myself wanted to pay special attention this season but because we have had so much racing, which has resulted in few horses actually travelling, and small fields, those acquiring the three icons have been thin on the ground.

Gary went beyond the call of duty here though and he has produced a plethora of data that simply has to help you pinpoint winners, and therefore make a profit, from the ratings.

For instance, in races where we have just one horse in a race that has travelled, and is well drawn a profit of 78 points has been achieved from just 58 bets since May 1st.

Horses bearing the same two icons, sitting in my top three rated, have produced a profit of 111 points from just 88 bets during that same time span.

If you had punted every single horse carrying those icons between May 1st and last Sunday, you would have played 261 points and returned 387.52 points, a profit of 126.25 points.

I did know at the start of the season that this had the potential to make us all a decent profit and it has proven quite right. The NH season that finished in March did indicate this would be the case and I am very much looking forward to working with T Factor horses from November.

I also know a fair number of you have not been using Gary’s work and that’s a shame because trust me, it will most certainly pinpoint how best to work with the figures.

TODAY

I would be very, very suspicious of the Chester going description of “good”. I live about 35 minutes from the course (at 80 miles an hour up the M53), and trust me, we had rains across the region of Biblical proportions.

The BHA website has been updated and they still suggest good ground but, the going stick reading still pertains to that provided on Wednesday?

If the going is good then I’m happy with my figures for that meeting but I’ll make not a single decision until I’ve seen the opening race on the card, which of course means I’ll not be playing the first of my rated races there.

A total of 11 rated races below and we have a more than decent race taking place at Bath…shock, horror! See, put a half-decent prize up, they will come! Normally they’d need the equivalent of a punters press gang to get people going racing there but a purse of near £7.5k to the winner has horse boxes from Newmarket pootling up and it’s a race you’d enjoy watching at any track.

THAT HORSE

I mentioned at the start of the Ebor meeting that I fancied one to be winning today and it’s turning out.

ORNATE runs in the 4-20 and unfortunately the form of the yards juveniles this week means a short price is up regarding this one but, I believe she’s seriously decent kit and the Haggas 2-y-o’s are simply flying right now.

This race is nine years old and to date only one favourite has managed to pull it out of the fire. Six of the nine winners were in the front three on the tissue but i’m hopeful favourite number two wins the 10th running.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Bath / Sat 22 Aug
Updated @ Fri 21 Aug

Going/Track Good to Firm (GoingStick: 8.4 on Thursday at 07:30)

Stalls: 5f, 5.5f & 2m1f – Centre 1m2f & 1m – Inside 1m5f – Outside

Weather Forecast: 12 mm rain Friday 14th Aug 19mm Wednesday into Thursday No rain overnight Fri – Light rain Sat – Dry & Overcast for much of the day. Thundery showers possible early evening. Max temps 21C

Sandown Park / Sat 22 Aug
Updated @ Fri 21 Aug

Going/Track Sprint Course – Good to Soft, Good in places Round Course – Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: Sprint 7.1 Round 7.6 on Friday at 12:00)

Rails: Round Course rail on innermost configuration – distances as advertised.

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side (rail 3 yards in) Remainder – Inside

Weather 10mm rain Wednesday evening. 0.2mm rain Thursday evening. Dry and getting warmer from now onwards – 24/25 degrees Friday, 28/29 degrees Saturday.

York / Sat 22 Aug
Updated @ Fri 21 Aug

Going/Track Good to Soft (GoingStick: Overall tba – goingstick readings in home straight: farside centre , standside . on Saturday at 08:30)

Rails: Saturday rail position; racing on traditional racing line, no alteration to official race distances .Stalls: 5f & 6f 2 y o only races – Far Side; 5f, 6f & 1m4f for 3 year olds and up – Centre; Remainder – Inside Rail

Weather 1mm in early hours of Friday morning, dry since. Met Office forecast:Saturday – chance of showers from midnight Friday to around 8am Saturday, then dry until after racing. Warmer in afternoon with some sunny spells, 23 degrees

Chester / Sat 22 Aug
Updated @ Sat 22 Aug

Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 7.1 on Wednesday at 09:00)

Rails: The rail has been returned to the inside, all race distances will therefore be as advertised.

Stalls: All races – Inside

Weather 2mm of rain on Friday afternoon but dry since. Forecast: The threat of showers/ periods of rain till 12pm (3/4mm). The afternoon promises a period of dry, cloudy weather until the threat of showers, some of which could be heavy, returns late afternoon.

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

YORK 4-55

* – BATTALION….+12
§* – ROSEBURG….+10
INGLEBY ANGEL….+9
* – ELHAAME….+7
* – MASTER OF FINANCE….+/-0
T§* – FORGOTTEN HERO….-3
* – OFF ART….-9
T* – NAVAJO CHIEF….-14
§ – EARTH DRUMMER….-14
§ – MODERNISM….-19
WARFARE….-19
MUNAASER….-31
HANSEATIC….-31
SPIRIT OF THE LAW….-35
§ – POLAR FOREST….-35
§ – SIKANDER….-35
T§ – PACIFY….-36
T – JAKEY….-40
ABBEY ANGEL….-40

NOTES: What we witnessed yesterday was just how conditions during a race can influence a result. The race in which I fancied CHANCERY and TOP TUG to run big races was run with a serious wind coming from behind runners as they came up the straight.

If you were not on the speed then you had no chance coming from off it, as CHANCERY found out. He came from a good way back to finish fourth but the first three home had been in the front five from flag fall and sometimes it’s just a tough old game this punting lark.

What we also have to deal with ground here today that has been raced on for three days and will be as rough as a badgers backside. I’m always of a mind that if you do not make your profits early during a Festival meeting then you really are going to struggle to pull it back come the last couple of days.

Here I have two horse having the desired icons, allied to a position in my top six rated horses so, ROSEBURG and FORGOTTEN HERO are in my dutch. The third horse for that play will be BATTALION. He’s drawn “2nd best” and would be as good a way to go as any.

My 20/80 will be the horse with the T§* icons who had a choice of engagements today but it was not lost on his trainer that he ran well here in the John Smiths Cup.

SANDOWN 2-50

HOMAGE….+13
§* – MISTER MUSIC….+8
* – MOUNT LOGAN….+5
* – PRESBURG….+1
* – NOBLE GIFT….-6
§ – EXOSPHERE….-7
H§ – BASATEEN….-13
T* – SENNOCKIAN STAR….-10
§ – FLAG WAR….-21
§ – ELKAAYED….-25
ROOM KEY….-25
§ – MARSHGATE LANE….-40
SPARK PLUG….-40
GREEN LIGHT….-40

NOTES: I’m not overly keen on this. I’m just going to play my numbers as they have fallen – top three dutch, a 20/80 MISTER MUSIC and exotics but taking will be low.

SANDOWN 3-25

* – JUDGE ‘N JURY….+9
T§* – DESERT ACE….-2
T – SEVE….-8
SYDNEY ROUGHDIAMIND….-13
* – CHILWORTH ICON….-15
§* – TOP BOY….-15
§ – SUNSET SAIL….-20
* – NEWTON’S LAW….-25
OH SO SASSY….-26
§ – PIXELLEEN….-33
§ – MUSICORA….-37
§ – TAAJUB….-40
SLEEPY SIOUX….-40
NOBLE STORM….-40
MAGNUS MAXIMUS….-40

NOTES; It would be great to see the old horse sitting top doing the business and I’ll have him, DESERT ACE and TOP BOY in my dutch. The solo play will go to DESERT ACE and I’ll tinker with the exotics, too.

SANDOWN 4-35

* – GUN CASE….+13
JACK OF DIAMONDS….+10
ISHIKAWA….-7
MAVERIK….-14
FLECKERL….-25
ZABEEL STAR….-28
* – FREDDY WITH A Y….-35
WOOFIE….-40

NOTES: Straight win my top top rated. That’ll do here.

SANDOWN 5-10

* – ZAMBEASY….+6
CHAIN OF EVENTS….+5
* – CRAFTMANSHIP….+2
* – SPECIAL MISS….-8
SALMON SUSHI….-20
RIVER DART….-40
RAYAK….-40

NOTES; Another here I’m not sweet on. I’ll work a dutch the two highest rated horses bearing that * icon….20/80 ZAMBEASY, too.

CHESTER 1-50

§ – BALLESTEROS….+15
* – BLITHE SPIRIT….+11
* – ROUDEE….+10
* – SHOWSTOPPA….+10
* – LEXI’S HERO….+9
§* – HENDI….+8
§ – DEAUVILLE PRINCE….+6
* – KIMBRELLA….+5
§* – AVON BREEZE….+1
* – GRAMERCY….+/-0
* – MONUMENTAL MAN….-5
* – BARRACUDA BOY….-15
§* – MEGALEKA….-18
CONFESSIONAL….-25
§ – MUKAYNIS….-26

CHESTER 3-30

T§* – SOUND ADVICE….+17
T* – OCEAN TEMPEST….+13
T§* – FLASH FIRE….+11
* – IFWECAN….+11
§* – THIRD TIME LUCKY….+10
§* – CAPO ROSSO….+10
* – CLOCKMAKER….+9
* – MARCRET….+8
* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….+8
* – WEE JEAN….+4
* – ENLACE….+3
§* – MIRACLE OF MEDINAH….18
T – APOSTLE….-23
§ – SHOWBOATING….-29
STEEL TRAIN….-40
RUN WITH PRIDE….-40
ABOVE THE REST….-40

BATH 5-30

* – FAERY SONG….+8
* – DARK AMBER….+2
THAMES KNIGHT….-7
APPROACHING….-13
H* – PINK DIAMOND….-14
* – VALENTINO OYSTER….-15
MATRAASH….-26
DARK AVENGER….-39
CHARLATAN HOUSE….-40
MISSANDEI….-40

NOTES: Top pair for a dutch and exotic but a straight win play FAERY SONG.

BATH 6-00

* – SEQUESTER….+21
T* – OCEAN APPLAUSE….+15
T* – SALIERIS MASS….+14
* – CORNISH PATH….+14
T* – DREAM SPIRIT….+13
* – MARMOT….+11
* – TEARS OF THE SUN….+9
* – BAYLAY….+7
SMILING STRANGER….-1
T* – MUSTADAAM….-15
T – SOLO HUNTER….-18

NOTES: This is the best race here for a long time. I believe my top rated was a very fortunate winner last time, when he took advantage of a trio of three year olds that could not handle the Brighton camber.

I mentioned Gary’s stats earlier and it surprised me to find that only T* sitting top rated have produced a profit.

I’m going to trust my figures again and simply play them as they have fallen…top three dutch, a 20/80 SEQUESTER and exotics.

BATH 7-00

* – MY METEOR….-8
* – TRIPLE DREAM….-9
VERY FIRST BLADE….-13
T – CLASSIC IMAGE….-17
H – WARM ORDER….-21
SMART DJ….-40
FRANK THE BARBER….-40
GO CHARLIE….-40

NOTES: Don’t like this. If I get involved….if…it’s just top two for the lot, to my usual play.

BATH 8-00

SHE’S INVINCIBLE….+1
* – JERSEY BROWN….+/-0
* – PRIME EXHIBIT….-1
* – STARLIGHT SYMPHONY….-4
RAKAAN….-16
STORMBOUND….-20

NOTES: If anyone is looking at this to get them out, wait until tomorrow! Not great and I’ll probably be brewing a cocoa when this goes off.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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