I’m working on my laptop as my Mac, for some reason, won’t boot up and I’m unable to access my prep work to finalise everything. As soon as I’m able to figure out what’s happened, I’ll get my work boxed off and in your inboxes.
Fortunately it’s a very quiet day ratings wise, with just three races – two at Sandown, both small field affairs and the opening race at York.
I put in a heck of a shift yesterday. I prepped today’s work (which wasn’t difficult, really….with only those three races to work on), then set about Saturday’s stuff, which provides us with 11 races. I’ve started profiling the Ebor, because it’s a race I do not put through the handicapping mill as it’s in excess of 12 furlongs.
Eventually closed everything down here around 8-00pm
I didn’t bet a bean yesterday, or lay a horse. I’ll bet the lads at Racing Post wish they had the comfort of making the same decision. As you know, for the last four weeks, I’ve been keeping an eye on the guys doing their headline tipping section each day and up to and including Saturday last week, they were 38.54 points down across three weeks.
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday they’d played five points and recouped six, courtesy of a 5/1 winner on Monday but then York arrived. On Wednesday Tom Segal, who has obviously planned his return for this meeting, and colleague Ron Wood, set out nine points between them, and dropped the lot. Yesterday Tom and Paul Kealy, put 18 points out between them and with Paul having 2pts e.w. on a 6/1 runner up so, 5 points returned, 13 points dropped.
With two more days of the week to go, the four week period I am covering has them, to date, 59.54 points down.
As I have said before, these guys know their stuff, and they’ll eventually pull the points back. It has been a funny month for a variety of reasons and their current situation is proof of what I always say, that punting for profit has to be seen as a long term thing.
I’ll be back as soon as this problem is resolved.
Sandown Park / Fri 21 Aug
Updated @ Thu 20 Aug
Going/Track Sprint Course – Good to Soft, Soft in places Round Course – Good to Soft, Good in places (GoingStick: Sprint 6.9 Round 7.4 on Thursday at 08:00)
Rails: Rail out 3 yards from 7f to winning post, adding 10 yards to Round Course distances.
Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side (rail 3 yards in) Remainder – Inside
Weather 10mm rain Wednesday evening. Thursday and Friday mainly dry 22/24 degrees. Chance of light shower Thursday night.
York / Fri 21 Aug
Updated @ Fri 21 Aug
Going/Track Good to Soft (GoingStick: Overall – tba goingstick readings in home straight: farside centre , standside . on Friday at 08:30)
Rails: Friday rail position; Fresh ground has been provided on the home bend on inner extension, reducing race distances of races run over 8f by 16 yards, and of races run over 10f and over by 31 yards
Stalls: 5f & 6f 2 y o only races – Far Side; 5f, 6f & 1m4f for 3 year olds and up – Centre; Remainder – Inside Rail
Weather 1mm in early hours of Friday morning. MetOffice forecast: Friday – largely dry with risk of a passing shower, cloudy, 21 degrees. Saturday – chance of rain showers in early hours, clearing mid morning, becoming warmer with some sunny spells, chance of sharp shower later on.
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
* – CHANCERY….+10
T§ – PRESSURE POINT….+9
T§* – TOP TUG….+8
* – EMERAHLDZ….+3
T§ – PENHILL….-9
TH – MIGHTY YAR….-10
T§ – CROUEMBOUCHE….-10
* – ONLYORSENFOOLSIES….-12
§* – HIT THE JACKPOT….-13
T§ – CURBYOURENTHUSIASM….-17
T – XINBAMA….-22
T* – MISTIROC….-28
§ – WINTERLUDE….-30
T – MEMORIAL DAY….-32
T – KINGS BAYONET….-39
T – RANSOM NOTE….-40
T – WHAT ABOUT CARLO….-40
NOTES: My top rated palpably dances off the page, to be honest. He is 3-7 on the ground, 2-10 at the track and has won two of the 18 races he has contested over this trip. My second highest rated has only a question mark regarding the ground….which he has never raced on before. A record of 4-7 at the trip and a 33% strike rate at the track suggests that if he handles it, he’s bang there.
Those T§* icons have pulled up trees here this week and TOP TUG has them. He has flattered to deceive a few times but runs on ground that’s fine this afternoon – just the 0-2 trip and 0-1 track stats that bother me.
If the winner is outside my top three it’s bye bye shekels.
A dutch, a 20/80 CHANCERY because he’s the only one in here with ticks in the three boxes and, exotics.
T* – EL VIENTO….+10
* – ROCKET ROB….+6
* – WHITECREST….-10
* – SWENDAB….-15
* – BIRDIE QUEEN….-20
NOTES; Only ROCKET ROB has winning form here (2-6) but he’s also 0-4 on the ground forecast. I’ll just work with my top pair but to small stakes.
T* – IXELLES DIAMOND….+9
* – HALA MADRID….-4
* – HEDGE END….-11
* – PACOLITA….-24
TWO IN THE PINK….-25
* – OUR QUEENIE….-27
NOTES: Nothing has won on this ground, nothing has won previously at the track. They have raced 28 times between them over the trip and produced just five wins, two of those going to HEDGE END.
My top rated has yet to race here or on this kind of ground and one loss over the trip is simply nothing conclusive at all. I’ll just have a 20/80 that one and hope my figures are right.
Have a brilliant day and the best of luck