John Morris and I were discussing, via e-mail, the Royal Ascot meeting and I think we have both been surprised by the fact the middle/low drawn horses were so successful yesterday, in those big field straight track races.
John was saying the people he has working with him down there, doing what he does, were “pulling their hair out”. The reason was that the CoC had opted not to water in the run up to the meeting and won’t until after racing today. It has caused an issue.
In the build up yesterday I was listening, very closely, to the words spoken by Ruby Walsh, who was walking the track. He was very much of a mind it was very quick ground but with a good covering of grass. I have a suggestion at this point. We get a top jockey to provide going descriptions prior to racing commencing.
The ground was being called good, good to firm in places by the CoC and it was only after the first race that they changed it to good to firm all over. Why?
I know I probably drive a few insane with my constant going on about the ground but trust me, nothing is more important in the search for winners….and losers to lay.
It’s why we’ve seen the Ratings performing so well these last couple of days. It’s why we’ll see them having the layers running for cover for the rest of the summer, if the weather is kind.
What Ruby also noted yesterday was that the machinery Ascot used to water when they did, had created a “pathway” that would probably be where a lot of jockeys might want to be. It was situated, as far as I could tell on my screen, slightly right of middle looking down the track…where middle to low drawn horses will be racing.
As the ground dried out through the afternoon, it obviously helped to be middle low and the last race on the card certainly seemed to prove that to be the case. I have draw data going back a fair old while and, traditionally, high drawn horses were the ones you wanted to be with….the figures actually suggest six stalls off either rail, either side but a favouring of high.
My selection for that last race, Opal Tiara had no chance from that draw she had (24) and by halfway she mush have been at least 15 lengths off the pace. As they hit the rise she picked up brilliantly to fly through to finish seventh. three of the first four home were drawn 6, 3 and 4.
The Royal Hunt Cup today, which I have profiled in last night’s Newsletter, is going to see me watching with great trepidation. When putting those words down I had in front of me my stats for the last 20 races run under the same/similar conditions and it clearly shows me that high drawn horses, over that period, have proven vastly superior but after what I saw yesterday, I have to be worried.
Just been watching the webcam on the ship Karen is aboard, docking. They have arrived at Crete and it looks a stunning day there. Not a bit jealous!
I will be working on tomorrow’s racing, my backside in my seat for the next 15 hours or so….occasional breaks permitted.
We have ratings for one Royal Ascot race and two from Ripon’s evening meeting below and I’m very pleased to see my profile horse, Temptress, sitting second best on my figures. That inspires confidence. All I have to be now is, right.
Ascot / Wed 17 Jun
Updated @ Tue 16 Jun
Going/TrackGood to Firm (GoingStick: Standside: 8.5, Centre: 8.3, Farside: 8.5, Round 8.1 on Tuesday at 08:15)
Rails: For Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday the rail on the round course is positioned approx. 3yds out from its innermost position from about 9f to the Home straight. Adding approx. the following: Old Mile- 6yds 1m 2f- 9yds Races of 1m 4f and further- 12yds
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside
Watering: Round course was watered overnight Saturday. Straight course was watered on Sunday.
WeatherDry overnight. Forecast is for a dry day With sunny spells, due to be generally fine and dry through the week.
Hamilton Park / Wed 17 Jun
Updated @ Wed 17 Jun
Going/TrackGood, Good to Firm in places (watered) (GoingStick: 7.5 on Wednesday at 06:30)
Rails: Official distances apply for all races at this meetingStalls: 6F & 1M 4F – Standside 1M & 1M 1f – Inside
Watering: Applied 3mm irrigation on home straight Monday afternoon.
Weather 0.3mm rain overnight, very light rain this morning already clearing away. Forecast to be mainly overcast with possible further outbreaks of very light rain before midday. Max Temp 15C.
Ripon / Wed 17 Jun
Updated @ Wed 17 Jun
Going/TrackGood (GoingStick: 8.3 on Wednesday at 06:00)
Rails: Rail on innermost position, no additional yards added
Stalls: Straight Course – Stand side Round Course – Inside rail
Weather 3.5mm over Saturday/Sunday, dry since. Wednesday – Cloudy morning with possible light showers, turning brighter for the evening, 19c Thursday – Sunny periods and breezy, 18c
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
ROYAL ASCOT 5-00
* – FIELD OF DREAM….+12
* – TEMPTRESS….+10
* – BRONZE ANGEL….+1
§* – MUNAASER….-1
T§* – YOU’RE FIRED….-2
* – SPECULATIVE BID….-4
* – AYAAR….-5
* – DARK EMERALD….-5
* – CHIL THE KITE….-9
T* – BARAWEEZ….-10
T§* – BALTY BOYS….-10
* – TENOR….-11
T§* – GABRIAL….-14
T* – FORT BASTION….-14
T§ – MONDIALISTE….-15
§* – BANCUANHEIRANN….-15
T§* – COPRAH….-15
* – JACK’S REVENGE….-16
* – SIRIUS PROSPECT….-16
§ – LAMAR….-22
§ – DON’T BE….-23
§ – BIG BAZ….-36
T§ – PIRI WANGO….-40
§ – LINCOLN….-40
T – AVON PEARL….-40
NOTES: I always favour profiling over ratings and that’s because profiled races are usually race that have been targeted by trainers some way ahead of time, whilst rated races are those being used for the purposes of a trainer getting their horses “handicapped’.
I’m just happy to see TEMPTRESS sitting second best, having come out as my profile horse and I’ll have a decent 20/80.
TH* – GO SAKHEE….+10
* – IMSHIVALLA….-15
H* – WARLU WAY….-19
H – CACTUS VALLEY….-34
NOTES: I can only even consider a straight win play my top one.
* – OPERATEUR….+19
* – VALANTINO OYSTER….+9
* – LADY CLITICO….-14
IN VINO VERITAS….-40
NOTES: It’s a top two dutch, a 20/80 my top rated and the exotic.
Best of luck if you are getting involved!