Five rated races, 4 x top rated winners, and again, no secret how or why it happened. If we now get a clear run at this season regarding the weather, we are all going to do very well out of it.
I actually revisited the Carlisle race TECTONIC was racing in, once news came through it had gone good to firm (it really doesn’t take long at this time of year!), and my figures came out so:
* – TECTONIC….+11
* – EDAS….+6
* – SAVE THE BEES….-4
* – EXCLUSIVE WATERS….-18
Once that was done I was feeling very confident about this race. So much so I posted this up on Tippedtolose as the one advice over there:
EXCLUSIVE WATERS – currently 3.1 favourite on Betfair – rates 5th best of the six racing here. My top two rated trade 2nd and 3rd best on that tissue. However, those figures were compiled with my having a going description of good. It has now dried out to good to firm and that will suit the favourite more.
I’m still inclined to get after it though. EXCLUSIVE WATERS has so far shown his best form going left handed, eight runs going right handed providing just one win and a couple of placed efforts. My top rated, TECTONIC, will also be suited by the ground drying out and his last two wins have come at Carlisle, his record going right handed offering up three wins, 15 placed efforts from 37 runs going that way around.
In the plus column for the favourite is the fact his jockey today has ridden the horse to it’s last two wins (from four rides on the horse). Philip Makin has ridden TECTONIC seven times, winning once and placing twice.
My feeling is Keith Dalgleish has been getting this one handicapped to win here again as he’s just 1lb above the mark he won off here the last time and with form figures at this track reading 2, 2, 1, 3, 8, 6, 2, 2, 2, 1, I’ll be punting TECTONIC and laying EXCLUSIVE WATERS.
That winner is a complete dodge pot and he was given a peach of a ride by Philip Makin….if you have not seen it, please try to do so.
He kept the horse covered up perfectly and with two furlongs to race he pulled the horse out to race into the slipstream of Save The Bees. As that horse moved slightly left or right, Makin did exactly the same thing until entering the final furlong, when he kidded the horse to hit the front.
Makin is riding out of his skin this season.
The lay was beaten fully six furlongs out.
The result that actually pleased me most was NIGHT GENERATION winning that last on the Carlisle card. When I was putting my 20 to follow together this horse was the Prescott horse I spotted up for the list…that one will now run up a sequence of wins.
I am now simply working my socks off on the Royal Ascot profiling. If anyone needs to get hold of me for anything it might be a little time before I can get back.
I hope you enjoyed reading the first of the Newsletters last night…I hope even more we make something from it! I’m always a little trepidatious when we are looking at every race on a card and trying to get something from them. One day like the Wednesday of last years festival will do just fine! Stu might even be able to get another pair of new sunglasses out of it.
Below we have four rated races from the off meetings and fingers crossed they give us something to cheer.
Ascot / Tue 16 Jun
Updated @ Mon 15 Jun
Going/TrackGood, Good to Firm in places. Watered (GoingStick: Standside: 8.2, Centre: 8.0, Farside: 8.0, Round 7.8 on Monday at 08:15)
Rails: For Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday the rail on the round course is positioned approx. 3yds out from its innermost position from about 9f to the Home straight. Adding approx. the following: Old Mile- 6yds 1m 2f- 9yds Races of 1m 4f and further- 12yds
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside
Watering: Round course was watered overnight Saturday. Straight course was watered on Sunday. No further watering to take place before the meeting.
Weather1mm rain Friday/Saturday, dry since then to 7.30am Monday. Forecast is for a dry day Monday, due to be fine and dry and get warmer through the week.
Beverley / Tue 16 Jun
Updated @ Tue 16 Jun
Going/TrackGood, Good to Soft in places
Rails: The inside rail around the bottom bend has been moved out by circa 2 yards from the 8-furlong point (round course) to the 2-furlong point, adding 7 yards to all races over 7 furlongs and further. This creates a false rail, finishing around the 2-furlong mark in the home straight.
Stalls: Inside all races
WeatherTuesday – Dry, mainly overcast, Sunny spells in the evening 18c
Thirsk / Tue 16 Jun
Updated @ Mon 15 Jun
Going/TrackGood to Firm, Good in Places (GoingStick: 9.1 on Monday at 14:00)
Rails: Both bends are dolled out circa 3-4 yards which adds approximately 15 yards to the standard distances over 7F & 8F and approximately 20 yards to the standard distance over 1M4F.
Stalls: Straight Course & 1M4F Start – Stands’Side 7F Start – Inside 8F Start – CENTRE
WeatherSet fair for racing.
Brighton / Tue 16 Jun
Updated @ Mon 15 Jun
Going/TrackGood, Good to firm in places (Watering as necessary) (GoingStick: 8.0 on Sunday at 08:00)
Rails: Rail will be dolled out from 6f to 2.5f by 3 yards.
Stalls: 1m2f Outside, the remainder Centre.
WeatherThursday 10mm rain Friday 3mm rain Saturday, Sunday & Monday dry The forecast is for mainly cloudy conditions with a high of 16C on Tuesday
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
TIN PAN ALLEY….+2
* – PADDY’S ROCK….-7
* – DUKE OF YORKSHIRE….-8
NOTES: Competitive but, poor. This crew have had no fewer than 49 pops at winning on good ground and mustered just two wins between them. PADDY’S ROCK will carry my 20/80 simply because he won on his only previous visit here, over this trip, on good ground. His issue is, he has won both his two races to date in August.
I’ll work with rated horses 1, 3 and 4…dutch, that 20/80 PADDY’S ROCK and exotics but, not a lot will be invested to find out if my numbers are right.
* – LUTINE CHARLIE….+8
T – ELLE REBELLE….-6
* – EXPENSIVE TASTE….-17
T – TELEGRAPH….-23
T – BOLD HEMMIE….-40
NOTES: My top rated is the only horse in here having ticks in the going/trip/track boxes. I’ll work with horses 1, 2 and 5….dutch, 20/80 LUTINE CHARLIE and exotics.
* – OLNEY LASS….+9
T – KNOW YOUR NAME….-11
T – BORN TO FLY….-14
NOTES: Everything currently looks spot on for OLNEY LASS. However, she has not managed to win anything since September 2013. I’ll dutch my top three and go 230/80 my top rated, who has yet to race on genuine good ground. Top three for exotics.
* – EMERALHDZ….+7
LIGHT OF ASIA….+3
* – SEA THE SKIES….-7
* – SIR JACK LAYDEN….-14
NOTES; I can only consider working with the two highest rated horses carrying the *. Only two of these has raced here before…went home with nowt. Between them they have managed just three wins from 19 attempts at the trip and likewise, just three wins from 15 tries on the ground they have forecast. Not a race I will be heavily involved in.
Best of luck if you are getting involved!