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Today’s Ratings and Advice 14/06/15

Ron RobinsonOver the last month or so I have been reading, and listening with interest to the conversations about weekend racing becoming far to busy. There does seem to be a concerted effort being made to have the Saturday card “filled” and yesterday was simply to busy.

After Royal Ascot finishes I tend to then start looking at those all aged handicaps containing three years olds because, as Mark Johnston always says, that’s when they become fair game.

If I had included them yesterday you would probably only just be receiving your Saturday Newsletter!

What, more than anything else, had me looking for that rope and stool again, was the rains that arrived and scuppered more than 50% of my work.

Bath had been rated on the understanding it was firm….it went good….if you believe the words of the jockey who rode the first winner of the day there, it was soft side of good. Horses only go to that track for an opportunity to run on concrete and I had spotted up those that had a decent chance on quick ground. My figures there were not worth the proverbial carrot. In fact, if you turn them on their heads they look much better!

York had been rated in the belief it was good to firm….it went good to soft, soft in places with the potential to go soft all over. That is a track that doesn’t take a lot to turn it any way and by that I mean if it then stops raining and we have a decent temperature, it can turn back from soft to good during the course of the afternoon. It did yesterday.

Brian Ellison was explaining to the RUK interviewers that he had been praying for rain for Top Notch Tonto and when he had opened his curtains yesterday morning to see it bucking down, he was wearing a huge grin. Not surprised!

Musselburgh and Chester got away with it, as did Lingfield. Sandown, where I had just one rated race and a horse in my top six carrying the §* icons (won 7/2 > 5/2), also had no issues but Leicester had been rated with me believing it was good to firm and watered but they copped for some and it went “officially” good to soft. It seems as if it was just right across middle England that the rain decided to fall.

I really did fancy ONLINE ALEXANDER to run a huge race yesterday. I had ignored the obvious in RED BARON, who topped my figures but as the traps opened, she reared up, lost about six lengths and was last of the 17 runners with two furlongs to race. She finished sixth, not given a hiding by any means. In a 17 runner five furlong sprint, you miss the break like that and the betting slip in in the shredder. Would she have beaten RED BARON? Probably not.

I remember listening to Eric Alston talking about this horse a couple of years ago, saying how good it would be if his owner would let him geld it. The owner simply kept refusing to let him do that. However, his owner passed away last year and Eric bought the horse when it went through the ring. The first thing he did was cut it because, to quote him from yesterday, “they were getting in his way!”.

His form figures this season prove the man right and he has a potential Listed/Group race sprinter on his hands now.

I am going to have to think seriously about how we work with Saturday’s like that. I have still not had time to go through yesterday’s figures to evaluate them.

DAVID O’MEARA

David O’Meara….I’ve kinda worked him out. We saw a couple of his top my figures over the two days and York and both won 15/2 and 6/1. Both those winners had been given two runs prior to York that were specifically aimed at getting the right mark for the horses to win off….that’s what good trainers do. In the case of Regal Dan he had run him first on unsuitable ground, then run him in headgear, which he doesn’t need….and probably David knew he wouldn’t face. With Harwoods Volante he has run the horse twice over a trip in excess of its best. All three previous wins had come over six furlongs but David had raced him over a mile at Pontefract and Newcastle’s seven furlongs.

Yesterday, back over six on a more galloping track he wins his race at York, a place where David has been top trainer for the last two years.

I will be watching all future York entires like a hawk and we’ll hopefully profit from this.

ROYAL ASCOT

I dropped Karen and her daughter off yesterday and they are now sailing through the Med for a week. I had them on webcam….well, not them but their ship….as it sailed out of Venice last night, as I was working on my Royal Ascot profiling.

They were sent packing, literally, so that I could just put my head down and graft this week. Today I’ll be setting up my templates and working on Tuesdays races so that tomorrow evening you all receive the first of the Royal Ascot Newsletters. If you are a Weekend Club member please be aware your package does not include that work and if you would like to receive it I would ask that you make a donation of £20 through the www.sentire.co.uk website.

On the home page of that website you will see a DONATE section…right hand side….this feeds through to the JustGiving page I have created for the Clatterbridge League of Friends for the purposes of raising funding for the Sensory Garden.

If you would like to donate can I ask that you do two things, please:

1)….add a note when doing so indicating your donation was made for the RA Special and then
2)….forward your JustGiving receipt to me so that I can enter your details into the databases.

I have set a target of £25,000 for the build and Post Racing has already committed to purchasing all planting plus, the seat that will go around the tree which will be the centre piece. We have been able to do this because of the generosity of those that donated for the Cheltenham and Royal Ascot Specials previously and we raised over £3,000 of that £25,000 back then.

It is one heck of a project we have undertaken but when completed will give patients unfortunate enough to be there something that will help them recover more quickly.

Full details can be found on the Sentire website.

Ernie…thank you!

TODAY’S RACING

Proof Saturday’s are simply overloaded. Why could they not have all those cards spread equally across the two days?

I have just three rated races to work with and none particularly stunning for punting purposes.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Doncaster / Sun 14 Jun
Updated @ Sun 14 Jun

Going/TrackGood to Soft, Soft in Places (GoingStick: 6.8 on Sunday at 06:30)

Rails: The round course is railed out from 1m2f to where the round joins the straight. This is adding about 18 yards to races 1,2 and 3

Stalls: Straight course stand side Round course inside

Watering: Thursday 10mm of water applied to the straight course Friday 7mm-10mm of water applied to the round courseWeatherWednesday Dry temp high +17 Thursday Dry temp high +20 Friday Dry temp high +21 Saturday 21mm of rainfall Sunday 0.5 mm of rainfall at 06-30 Forecast Sunday A 50% to 60% chance of showers

Salisbury / Sun 14 Jun
Updated @ Sat 13 Jun

Going/TrackGood to Firm, Firm in places (watered) (GoingStick: 9.2 on Saturday at 16:00)

Rails: Erecting rail up the straight up to 20ft off the permanent far side rail.Stalls: 5F, 6F & 1M – Far side 7F – Centre 1M4F – Stands side

Watering: Saturday’s watering of 8mm has improved the course (it was Firm all round) and is now mainly Good to Firm with just a few quicker areas.

Weather 4MM RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NO FURTHER RAIN PREDICTED. SATURDAY & SUNDAY – MAINLY CLOUDY, 17’C

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

DONCASTER 4-50

* – TED’S BROTHER….+6
* – GHINIA….-1
THORNABY NASH….-9
§ – DERULO….-10
§* – MILLKWOOD….-20
MAKIN THE RULES….-27
§ – DARK OCEAN….-33
AHOY THERE….-34
§ – MOONLIGHT VENTURE….-34
T – MARGARET’S MISSION….-40
CLIFF….-40
GONE WITH THE WIND….-40

SALISBURY 1-45

* – SUNNY FUTURE….+7
T – KARRAR….-7 – NR
ELYSIAN FIELDS….-8
* – STARWATCH….-14
JOHN LOUIS….-18 – NR
T – TOWER POWER….-40
GREY GEM….-40
INTERIOR MINISTER….-40
CASTLE COMBE….-40

SALISBURY 2-15

FLASHY QUEEN….+5
* – SERENITY SPA….-4
* – POWERFUL WIND….-9
* – SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL….-12 – NR
GROUNDWORKER….-13
H – DESERT COMMAND….-13
* – WASEEM FARIS….-15
* – SLIP SLIDING AWAY….-25
PANDAR….-40

I myself will not be betting on those races today. Doncaster advises they will have further showers today but not how heavy or, how frequent. Salisbury has already seen 13 horses pulled out since I commenced prepping my work yesterday and I have marked up those above. More will follow and those races will not resemble the ones I worked on last night.

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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