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Today’s Ratings and Advice 12/08/15

Ron RobinsonGave myself a huge pat on the back last night…difficult, but doable….for the decision made to have just three bets yesterday.

SALVATORE FURY should have won, make no bones about that. Dalgleish had put CIRCUITOUS in to ensure a strong pace, and the headgear on that one I punted 20/80, to get a winner on the board.

My pick traveled seriously strongly throughout the race but was going to have to wait for those gaps to come. They didn’t so, Makin made several moves to find one. Just as one appeared Ben Curtis on YPRES, a canine of a horse who dodges winning, made sure both times those opportunities to get by were cut off. Makin first went for a gap between two, Curtis, whip in left hand, making sure it didn’t happen so, Makin pulled to the outside of the lot and was coming to win his race, when Curtis pulled his whip through, gave YPRES couple of cracks, which made him drift left into SALVATORE FURY and my 6/1 runner up got done a head. I’ve not had time to check if the winning rider has a few days off coming his way but I imagine that will be the case.

The rest of the Carlisle card and Ffos Las were totally ignored, my concentrating my efforts on those two rated races at Nottingham. They gave us a chance of profit and the figures were superb:

NOTTINGHAM 7-45

* – SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN….+3 – WON 2/1
* – TYFOS….-4 – 2ND 10/1
H* – TOUCH THE CLOUDS….-5 – 3RD 7/1
* – LOUMARIN….-11
ONLY TEN PER CENT….-16
HARDY BLACK….-40
ARGENT TOUCH….-40
FREEZE THE SECRET….-40

NOTES: My top pair are hunting for Grecian 2000 but I’ll have a very small 20/80 my top rated and dutch with TOUCH THE CLOUDS. Both have ticks in the three boxes I want ticked and with De Souza and first time head gear on board the latter might help me get something from this.

NOTTINGHAM 8-15

* – GOADBY….+11 – 3RD 18/1 > 16/1
* – ESSAKA….+9 – 4TH 13/8
§* – DIVERTIMENTI….+9 – WON 10/1 > 7/1
* – DANCING MAITE….+8
SYNONYM….+1
§* – MIMI LIKE….-1
* – DANZOE….-2
* – WIMBOLDSLEY….-13
§* – SAIRAAM….-17
VODKA TIME….-25
§ – ALPHA TAURI….-25
MEEBO….-39

NOTES: My first point of reference is ESSAKA. A 3-y-o….the only one in here, that is 1-1 at the track, 1-3 on the ground and 1-6 at the trip. Recent trainer form is less than shabby! Jim Crowley, who was on board when he won at Brighton just under a week ago, retains the ride and that horse will carry my 20/80.

I’m dutching my top three. DIVERTIMENTI doesn’t win often (that applies to everything in here), but two of his eight wins have come over CD and he has won or placed in 20 of his 68 runs on turf.

Exotics that trio, too.

Sorting the wheat from the chaff is part of my job and I was pleased with that effort yesterday.

TODAY

Three meetings, all figures below. Only seven races and I’m looking forward to Beverley.

Before I forget. I have a list of 10 juveniles I am waiting to run and have had several that could be, entered into my tracker for a while now. I received my alert that ZHUI FENG races today….Salisbury 2-20. I’d actually be favouring TANEEN…Hanagan and Varian, when teaming up at this track, are 3-3.

I’ll have a 20/80 that Perrett runner though.

Such horses should be punted cautiously as they might be pigeon catchers on the gallops and fall to pieces when they go racing.

I’ve been asked to look at every race being run at Beverley today as Vince (morning again, Vince!), is off racing today and happy to oblige.

You’ve got a claimer to start off with, Vince….going and trip will be right up KYRENIA CASTLE’s street….3-5 on the ground and 2-5 at the trip. None of those taking part has won her previously (this one has never tried), and backing the Nicholls runner to land the hat-trick is as good a way as any to go with that one.

2-30….SILVER STREAK has experience and runs for a yard that does great with juveniles here…Ann Duffield is over £44 ahead to a level stake with 2-y-o’s here and I’d expect that one to be in the mix. The big danger is STRATHEARN….the jockey has yet to ride a loser here for Micheal Bell but he has not trained a 2-y-o winner here in the last five seasons.Obviously I not got a “jar of glue” how good or otherwise those making debut are.

3-00….2-y-o maiden auction….not making this day for me, are you mate! Stats don’t help, magic pin refuses to get involved so, I’d be tempted to rely on the 43% strike rate Michael Dodds has with juveniles here and have a little e.w. on CAPE CRUSADER….as good a way to go as any with that one.

3-35….rated race, figures etc below, sir.

4-05….a five runner handicap, three of which are 3-y-o’s….cheeks now firmly puffed out. I can only find reasons why I wouldn’t punt anything in that one. Let me know how you get on with it!

I suppose, given it’s only one of two horses making a journey to race there today, BOLD APPEAL might justify that 444 mile round trip for Ralph Beckett.

4-40 and 5-10…rated and figures below.

Have a great day out, Vince.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Beverley / Wed 12 Aug
Updated @ Wed 12 Aug

Going/Track Good to Firm (watered)

Rails: The rail around the bottom bend has been moved out 2 meters from 8f to 3f, adding 7 meters to race distances of 7 furlongs and further.

Stalls: Inside all races

Watering: Watered to maintain going

Weather Wed – Sunny intervals 20C Thu – Light cloud cover 19C

Salisbury / Wed 12 Aug
Updated @ Tue 11 Aug

Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places last 6F (GoingStick: 8.6 on Tuesday at 16:00)

Stalls: 6F, 1M – Far side 7F – Centre 1M2F – Inside

Weather Monday – 5mm rain late morning, cloudy and humid afternoon. Tuesday – was overcast all day with no wind, humid, 20’c Wednesday – dry 21’c, very low prospect of rain Thursday – a more significant chance of showers developing, humid, 22’c

Bath / Wed 12 Aug
Updated @ Wed 12 Aug

Going/Track Firm (GoingStick: 9.7 on Wednesday at 06:30)

Stalls: 5f, 5.5f & 2m1f – Centre 1m2f & 1m3f – Inside

Weather Forecast: No rain overnight. 8mm rain through Monday Weds; Dry outlook with some sunny spells Max temps 21C

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BEVERLEY 3-35

* – TOM SAWYER….+14
* – LADY POPPY….+9
§* – WINDFORPOWER….+9
§* – PEARL NOIR….+8
§* – FLASH CITY….+6
* – THATCHERITE….+5
* – SEE VERMONT….-1
§ – ART WORLD….-3
* – HOOFALONG….-7
* – TINSILL….-8
EVEN STEVENS….-17
HALF A BILLION….-38

NOTES: Low draw is generally vital here but I’m thinking those having got 1-4 might set this up for those drawn 5-8…wouldn’t want higher than that.

My top rated has a poor draw, my second best has a low draw so, having gone with my draw theory I’m dutching rated horses 3, 4 and 5….20/80 WINDFORPOWER, and exotics.

BEVERLEY 4-40

* – PRIMOGENITURE….+9
* – KING OF THE CELTS….+9
* – MODERNISM….+4
* – TIN PAN ALLEY….+4
* – PETERHOUSE….-6
* – BIG STORM COMING….-14
MONSEA….-21
GRAND MEISTER….-31

NOTES: I’ll work with my top pair. No draw bias to fog the brain and it’s simply about my figures being right. Dutch, 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

BEVERLEY 5-10

* – MERCURY….+17
* – SPLASH OF VERVE….+8
* – NEXT STOP….+4
CHARLES DE MILLE….-16
MIDNITE RIDE….-19
* – HICKSTER….-20
SCOPPIO DEL CARRO….-35
T – MAWASEEL….-40
BEST BOY….-40

NOTES: A 3-y-o tops my figures so I will certainly have that as my 20/80. It’s a top three dutch to hopefully pay for it…..exotics, too.

SALISBURY 4-30

* – PINK DIAMOND….+7
H – DARK AVENGER….-4
APPROACHING….-15
FAERY SONG….-24
RUZIEZ….-40
ZUBAIDAH….-40

NOTES: Not liking this one little bit. I’ll not be betting here.

BATH 5-50

VALMINA….+10
* – BURNT CREAM….+5
* – MY METEOR….-9
H – WARM ORDER….-15
SPIRIT IN TIIME….-20
TOP COP….-35
T – KUANYAO….-40
FRANK THE BARBER….-40

NOTES: In all three races here I’m simply going to trust my figures are right and I’ll work primarily with those horses proven on rock solid ground. Rated horses 2&3 to a dutch, a small 20/80 BURNT CREAM and an exotic…minimal staking all races though.

BATH 7-20

T* – MERRITT ISLAND….+13
IF I WERE A BOY….+12
* – AVOCADEAU….+9
KASTINI….-9
TEMPURAN….-17
H – SHALIMAH….-30

NOTES: A straight win play my top one. No point faffing about here.

BATH 8-20

* – MAMBO SPIRIT….+9
STAR FIRE….+8
* – DREAMS OF GLORY….+8
* – SILVERICA….-2
* – EDGED OUT….-2
DISHY GURU….-22
GROUNDWORKER….-26
ANGELITO….-27
NOVERRE TO GO….-40

NOTES: I’ll play rated horses 1, 3 and 4 to October Rules….usual suspects turning up here and que sera sera.

More interested in what’s happening where Vince will be, to be honest.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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