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Today’s Ratings and Advice 06/07/15

Ron RobinsonI’m in a bit of a quandary.

Yesterday I provided figures based on the going description of good to soft. The weather forecast up there was for thunder, lightning and all that comes with it.

On the Tippedtolose website I had posted up three prospective lays but advised I would not be advising anything until I knew what the ground was like.

They were all duly beaten, including the well backed OBSIDIAN, but I could not have advised getting stuck into them.

I checked the going description updates religiously and when the BHA sifted it had actually dried to good, I was totally confused. I watched the first race and they ran very slowly, producing a time close to 12 seconds outside standard. That was nothing to do with the ground, just a very slowly run race.

The second race was choc full of hard luck stories but run at a truer pace. This time over six seconds outside standard. The connections of the winner, when interviewed, said they were happy with the drying ground so, I’m now totally confused…slow times on drying ground?

By now I had opted not to bet, lay or anything else. Typically, my top two in the next rated race came home first and second, producing a 79/1 Exacta, a 17/2 top rated winner….with winning connections saying afterwards, “10 furlongs and a bit of give are ideal conditions”….it’s drying out?….there is give?….I have not got a blind clue what they are racing on.

Times indicate it’s riding slow but i can only rate my races based on the official going description and below (typical of Ayr), we have another five rated races from that track. I’m not going to try and apply any logic to them until I have seen a race or two.

TODAY

Below are my figures for Ayr. I will be sending out my evening figures separately. A total of nine races today but I have not applied text to those Ayr races for the reasons discussed above.

Ayr / Mon 06 Jul
Updated @ Sun 05 Jul

Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 8.0 on Sunday at 12:15)

Rails: Innermost line in 8m adding 18yds to race distances 7f to 1m2f; Stands bend in 3m adding 33yds to 1m 5f.Stalls: 5f&6f: Centre 7f: Outside Remainder: Inside

Watering: Watered (Wednesday/Thursday)

Weather Past 24hrs = 1 mm rain up to 10am yesterday then dry, Max. 19c, min. 12c. Sunday – Dry & sunny start, showers possible in the afternoon (<2mm) Monday - Sunny spells, showers late afternoon (< 2mm) Recent rainfall: Fri 26th - Mon 29th = 12.7mm, then dry until Thurs 2nd - 0.4mm; Fri 3rd - 9 mm; Sat 4th - 1mm. Ripon / Mon 06 Jul Updated @ Mon 06 Jul Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in Places (GoingStick: 8.1 on Monday at 06:00) Rails: Rail on innermost position, no additional yards added Stalls: Straight Course - Stand side Round Course - Inside rail Weather 7mm of rain through Sunday afternoon Monday - Sunny periods through the morning becoming increasingly cloudy in the afternoon and possible light showers in the evening - 20c Windsor / Mon 06 Jul Updated @ Sun 05 Jul Going/Track Good to Firm (Watered) (GoingStick: 8.4 on Sunday at 10:00) Rails: Inner running rail of straight is dolled out 10yds at 6f and 5yds at the winning line. Top bend dolled out 7yds from normal inner configuration adding 24yds to race distances of 1m+Stalls: 1m 2f abt 7yds:- centre. Remainder:- inside. Watering: Watering programme has now been completed, watering finished at 10am today. Weather 1.6mm rainfall Friday. Dry overnight. Sunday:- Dry, cloudy morning brightening later, with the slight chance of a light shower 23c. Monday:- Dry with sunny intervals 22c. ICONS * - Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described § - Indicates best drawn T - Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more H - Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc) FINAL FIGURES AYR 2-35 * - BLUE JACKET....+8 T - MICHAEL'S MISSILE....+5 * - OPT OUT....+3 T* - CADEAUX PEARL....-11 SAXONETTE....-16 TIGER'S HOME....-24 ORIENTAL HEIGHTS....-24 HAIDEES REFLECTION....-40 PICKLE LILLY PEARL....-40 AYR 3-05 T* - FATHOM FIVE....+13 T - ORIENT SKY....+5 * - TADALAVIL....-9 GONINODAETHAT....-16 T - BEARSKIN....-25 T - CAPTAIN SCOOBY....-34 LADY CORDIE....-40 H - BANNOCK TOWN....-40 T - AFFECTIONATE LADY....-40 AYR 3-35 T* - SLEMY....+5 T* - HARWOODS VOLANTE....+/-0 * - RASAMAN....-1 * - SILVER RIME....-6 T* - TELLOVOI....-7 * - ANOTHER FOR JOE....-14 T* - PERSONAL TOUCH....-25 T - ALMUHEET....-28 T - KOMMANDER KIRKUP....-29 T - BEST YAMAYUZ....-36 AYR 4-05 ELUSIVE GENT....+8 T* - HAIL BOLD CHIEF....-2 T - MUSIC HALL....-11 GREAT DEMEANOUR....-13 GALILLEE CHAPEL....-25 SPIRIT OF THE SEA....-34 TIGER HEIGHTS....-39 T - SCHOTTISCHE....-40 DRINKS FOR LOSERS....-40 T - WARAPITO....-40 AYR 5-05 T§* - MY NAME IS RIO....+11 §* - LEXINGTON BLUE....+11 §* - BUNCE....+9 T§* - GOWANHARRY....+9 T* - PEARL BLUE....+8 * - ROTHESAY CHANCER....+6 T§ - JUBILEE BRIG....+2 T* - SOMETHING LUCKY....-1 T* - AMBITIOUS ICARUS....-9 T* - GO FAR....-10 T* - EVEN STEVENS....-11 T* - CRUISE TOTHELIMIT....-12 T - SEARCHLIGHT....-15 JINKY....-15 NOTES: I know I said no text would be added but if....if the going is genuinely good then this is the race I am most looking forward to today. I have two horses having obtained the three icons and they, along with LEXINGTON BLUE, will be the ones I work with. RIPON 9-05 STRAIT RUN....+14 POLLY JACKSON....+9 * - FORT BELVEDERE....+8 * - CHARLES DE MILLE....-6 * - ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE....-16 * - DAY OF THE EAGLE....-20 * - SPACE WAR....-25 * - STEEL STOCKHOLDER....-26 AHOY THERE....-27 SHAMAHEART....-29 JOHN CAESAR....-40 NOTES: None of these have won previously at this track. Seven of them have tried - 16 times between them - and come up short. None of these has managed to win more than once over this trip....only six of them have succeeded and it has taken them a collective 78 runs to produce six wins. Six have won on this ground....and it has taken them 89 runs on it to secure 10 wins. Four of those wins came from just one runner here, ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE. He is 0-2 at Ripon and just 1-12 at the trip. He is a seven furlong horse. My top rated is 0-6 on this ground, his last three runs, which have all come over further, have seen him finish 8/8, 8/9 and 10/12. He has been beaten a total of 60+ lengths in those three runs but....today's he's dropped back to a mile having been run over 12 and 10 furlongs recently and, if the ground were to go good to soft all over (they have showers forecast), he's got more going for him than most, his form figurers and anything slower than good being 1, 2. I will leave any decision to play this race until the last minute. WINDSOR 7-25 §* - BURNING THREAD....+9 * - GO NANI GO....+9 §* - ROYAL BRAVE....+9 GOLD FLASH....+9 § - LADY KYLLAR....+5 * - POUR LE VICTOIRE....+/-0 §* - FLYING BEAR....-5 T* - STORM LIGHTNING....-13 * - NOCTURN....-17 ELUSIVITY....-21 NOTES: I had NOCTURN very highly rated in one recently but they pulled him out. This is his track (3-4), this is his ground (2-6) but, he has never attempted this trip. He is one of only two of these to have race here previously, LADY KYLLAR (1-5), the other. GOLD FLASH, who makes handicap debut here, is the most interesting. Trip and tack will be a mystery to him but who knows what he'll produce here? ROYAL BRAVE has had just 15 races on turf, to date. He has won three and finished 2nd or 3rd in seven others. He is 3-7 on this ground and 2-9 at the trip. He will carry my solo play. I'm going to place faith in my numbers but it's Windsor and I expect nothing but pain. MY PLAY: DUTCH - BURNING THREAD, GO NANI GO, ROYAL BRAVE 20/80 - ROYAL BRAVE EXOTICS - BURNING THREAD, GO NANI GO, ROYAL BRAVE WINDSOR 7-55 PATHWAY TO HONOUR....+10 * - DIVINE LAW....+9 * - LADY MAR....+8 UNISON....-14 HIGHLAND DUKE....-19 H - PURPLE ROCK....-40 NOTES: My top rated has only raced on all weather surfaces to date and is top rated? Says much about the rest and if he takes to the turf, I believe he'll win. WINDSOR 8-55 VILAZ....-3 * - BIOTIC....-12 * - THE ALAMO....-17 NINETY MINUTES....-21 SWEET P....-26 RAYAK....-40 MOVIE MAGIC....-40 KALIMANTAN....-40 FAIRYINTHEWIND....-40 BERRAHRI....-40 JACK OF DIAMONDS....-40 NOTES; A complete shocker. It's top three to October Rules or nowt and with THE ALAMO being 2-5 at Windsor and 1-3 on the ground, he's my 20/80 but, he's 0-6 at this trip and I believe I'll be muttering the same words Jim Bowie most likely spoke as he saw Santa Anna coming around the bend, as they cross the finishing line. Have a brilliant day and the best of luck Kindest regards Ron

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