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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/08/15

Ron RobinsonAn outstanding day of punting yesterday that culminated in a terrific return off the race I did feel I’d get something from and to quote me, “We have eight rated races across three meetings and the Ripon 7-35 is most likely the only race I’ll be taking seriously”

RIPON 7-35
* – RURAL CELEBRATION….+11 – 3RD 5/1
* – SILVANUS….+10 – WON 12/1
§ – SEVE….+9
§* – LEXINGTON PLACE….+9 – 2ND 6/1
H* – SEE THE SUN….+8
T§* – LADWEB….-1
* – BLITHE SPIRIT….-4
NOBLE STORM….-18
EVEN STEVENS….-21
§ – SINGUER….-22
PEARL ACCLAIM….-29
INXILE….-32

NOTES: My top rated has the worst of the draw but such is the form of that yard right now he may well overcome it. SILVANUS is drawn “2nd best” and I can see him running a big race here.
LEXINGTON PLACE is the only horse in here having draw and ground right and that one is my own 20/80 here.
I’ll dutch rated horse 1, 2 and 4 but i’m very much aware the only 3-y-o in here sits third best on my figures and if he handles underfoot conditions then he’ll quite possibly make me look stupid.

RESULT – I finished off my days punting with another superb result. £425 tricast, £70.70 exacta, £84.97 CSF and the trifecta that paid £1653.30″

The rest of the day was most certainly profitable, too, with another more than acceptable trifecta paying £944.

TODAY

An extremely busy one and I’m providing my afternoon figures in this Newsletter and will send you my final figures for Newcastle this afternoon.

I have added text to a couple of races and will endeavour to take a good look at that last Pontefract race in my second Newsletter.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Brighton / Wed 05 Aug
Updated @ Tue 04 Aug

Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in places – Watering (GoingStick: 7.8 on Tuesday at 07:00)

Rails: Rail will be dolled out by 3 yards from 6f to 2.5f adding 7 yards to distances.

Stalls: 1m2f & 1m4f Outside, Rest Centre

Weather Overcast yesterday with 2mm light rain/drizzle early evening. Forecast: Looking mainly dry with good sunny spells up to and during racing. Temperatures around 19C

Chepstow / Wed 05 Aug
Updated @ Tue 04 Aug

Going/Track GOOD 5mm of rain on Tuesday (GoingStick: 8.4 on Monday at 06:30)

Stalls: 5f to 1m Centre 1m2f & 1m4f Inside

Watering: Applied 8mm of irrigation to Back Straight on Monday. No further watering.

Weather Forecast: Sunny spells with the chance of a shower on Wednesday, max temp 20C.

Pontefract / Wed 05 Aug
Updated @ Tue 04 Aug

Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in places (GoingStick: 7.8 on Tuesday at 15:00)

Stalls: Inside all races

Watering: The course has started to dry and we have watered on Tuesday (c7mm).

Weather 27.5mm rain during last week. Dry and breezy on Monday. Breezy on Tuesday with sunny spells and the outside chance of a shower in the afternoon. Wednesday is dry with sunny spells, remaining breezy.

Newcastle / Wed 05 Aug
Updated @ Tue 04 Aug

Going/Track GOOD to SOFT, Soft in places (GoingStick: 6.2 on Tuesday at 08:00)

Rails: Remain as were for last meeting.

Stalls: Straight races: Centre Round Races: Inside

Weather54mm of rain since Ladies Day Saturday. 2mm in last 24hrs. Feeling warmer with day time temps varying between 18c & 20c for the next 3 days. However odd light showers possible. Likely to see it improve a little at least.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BRIGHTON 3-20

T* – HULCOLT….+14
* – SHIFTING STAR….+9
* – PICK A LITTLE….+9
* – FREDDY WITH A Y….+9
PYROCUMULUS….-8
MUQARRED….-9
SWISS CROSS….-15
* – DEEP BLUE SEA….-28
T – HILLGROVE ANGEL….-32

NOTES: One of the better races to be run here with just over £11k to the winner. Stats allied to my figures would suggest I have to work with my top three but that my solo punt has to be PICK A LITTLE. Brighton is this horses happy hunting ground (3-6 here), the trip is spot on (3-10) and a 25% success rate when racing on the ground as currently forecast aint shabby either.

My own play here is a top three dutch, a 20/80 PICK A LITTLE and i’ll look at the potential dividend off those exotics.

BRIGHTON 3-50

* – WELSH INLET….+9
T – SUR EMPIRE….+8
* – QUEEN AGGIE….+8
BEAUTIFUL ENDING….-7
ACCLIO….-9
KIZINGO….-16
FIRST EXPERIENCE….-22
ELUSIVE ELLEN….-28

BRIGHTON 4-20

* – WICKED TARA….+5
HERMOSA VAQUERA….-1
STORM RUNNER….-4
NIFTY KIER….-7
FLIGHT FIGHT….-13
T* – BOLD CROSS….-15
POLYDAMUS….-16
KATNISS….-23
HAPPY JACK….-34
WEARDIDITALLGORONG….-35

CHEPSTOW 4-00

BONJOUR STEVE….+13
* – LUCKY CLOVER….+8
* – SWENDAB….+8
* – ONLY TEN PER CENT….-5
* – PANDAR….-9
JAGANORY….-30
LIBERTY RULES….-40

CHEPSTOW 4-30

* – DANDY….+14
* – PEAK STORM….+9
* – GLENS WOBBLY….+9
MISTER MAYDAY….+3
* – VALANTINO OYSTER….-2
HALLINGS COMET….-19
* – MY SON MAX….-30
IFAN….-40
RAYAK….-40

NOTES: My top rated arrives looking to defend his unbeaten record at the track. Three visits, three wins, to date. Again the trip and ground are spot on and I’m dutching my top two, I’ll go straight win the top one and sort out an exotic, too.

PONTEFRACT 3-10

BOLD CAPTAIN….+8
* – PIVOTMAN….+1
* – NORWEGIAN REWARD….-4
* – FORT BELVEDERE….-6
MARINERS MOON….-19
GUARACHA….-23
IM DAPPER TOO….-26
CAPE WRATH….-28
VIRTUAL REALITY….-29
MAGICAL MISCHIEF….-40
DHA CHARA….-40

PONTEFRACT 3-40

* – LIBERTY RED….+9
* – PENHILL….+3
* – LEADERENE….-3
* – CRAGGANOCK….-12
HERNANDOS HIDEAWAY….-16
T* – PLUTOCRACY….-20
BLUE HUSSAR….-29
* – QANAN….-35

PONTEFRACT 4-10

* – ANOTHER ROYAL….+8
* – OLDJOESAID….-1
H* – HOOFALONG….-8
* – IMPERIAL LEGEND….-12
HALF A BILLION….-13
SCORELINE….-21
* – RUBY’S DAY….-24
* – NOODLES BLUE BOY….-29
COSMIC CHATTER….-40

PONTEFRACT 4-40

* – CHISWICK BEY….+11
* – FAZZA….+10
* – SHADOWTIME….+8
* – TALENT SCOUT….+4
* – AUTOMOTIVE….-2
H – DUBAI HILLS….-11
T* – RALPHY BOY….-16
DANAS PRESENT….-33
AFKAR….-40

PONTEFRACT 5-10

* – LUIS VAZ DE TORRES….+17
* – JAMESBO’S GIRL….+11
* – CAPTAIN ROYALE….+8
T§* – SPIRAEA….-3
§ – SECRET GLANCE….-11
ETERNITY’S GATE….-16
§ – BOLD SPIRIT….-35
§ – DECENT FELLA….-40
UPAVON….-40
NAIOSE….-40

NOTES: My top rated horse is a 3-y-o and therefore open to a bundle of improvement. He has though, statistically, have the worst of the draw and he’s going to have to run the race his stats suggest he can. A record of 1-1 on the ground, 1-2 at the trip and a winner on his only previous visit suggest the draw might well be negated by ability.

My second highest rated is the only other previous winner here and I’m comfortable the winner comes from that pair.

CAPTAIN ROYALE is 0-17 at this trip and the danger to my top two is most likely SPIRAEA. I have always liked this horse and the only negative I can see is the fact she’s 0-2 at the track.

That trio is priced to dutch and I’ll go down that route, have my 20/80 JAMESBO’S GIRL and, have a pop at those exotics.

NEWCASTLE 5-50

* – KEEP IT DARK….+9
* – AMBITIOUS ICARUS….-2
* – BONDI BEACH BOY….-11
T – SAMHAIN….-11
T* – CHILWORTH ICON….-17
GOWANHARRY….-18
ONE BOY….-21
I’LL BE GOOD….-40
EVEN STEVENS….-40

NOTES: Nothing special about any of these races and it’s going to be simply me having confidence in my figures. I’ll not be punting to stakes that have the wife working about my betting bank though.

NEWCASTLE 6-20

LLEWELLYN….+9
* – EXOTIC GUEST….+7
ON THE HUH….-4
* – ARMELLE….-7
* – COISTE BODHAR….-9
OFF THE SCALE….-18
TEETOTAL….-21

NEWCASTLE 6-50

* – CADMIUM….+1
* – ADVANCE….-1
T – TAQNEEN….-9
* – UNCLE BRIT….-17
LAZARUS BELL….-22
MOONLIGHT VENTURE….-40
RED PALADIN….-40
MY SINGLE MALT….-40

NEWCASTLE 7-50

* – IMAGINARY WORLD….+7
SALMA GONDIS….-3
LIBERAL ANGEL….-5
* – LILIARGH….-13
* – SHESNOTFORTURNING….-17
T – MISHAM….-28
TWEETY PIE….-38
TAFFETTA….-40
PAGEANT BELLE….-40
PENNY PURSUITS….-40
MADAKHEEL….-40

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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