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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/07/15

Ron RobinsonThat was a long, long day of racing.

My apologies for not being able to get a second Newsletter out but quite simply time ran out.

My workload is very heavy of a Saturday and, don’t forget, I also have to play my own bets/lays whilst racing is taking place….we need to eat at this end!

It didn’t help that today’s meeting at Ayr is just wall to wall handicaps and they needed prepping, too.

So, how did the Ratings perform? Before I go through those I must admit to being very happy with the OF INTEREST section. I had 11 selections in there and we came out with five winners.

BEVERLEY 3-00

* – BONDI BEACH BOY….+13
* – MONEY TEAM….+10
§* – THATCHERITE….+10
* – BAHAMIAN SUNRISE….+9
* – INNOCENTLY….+9
§ – MOON RIVER….+8
§* – FLASH CITY….+6
* – IMPERIAL LEGEND….+5
AVON BREEZE…+4
§* – PEA SHOOTER….+2
* – NOODLES BLUE BOY….+1
§* – SINGEUR….+/-0
* – LADWEB….-5
* – DISCLOSURE….-15
* – ONE BOY….-25
ANCIENT CROSS….-33
§ – RUSTY ROCKET….-32

RESULT – For the second day in succession we witnessed a high drawn big priced winner and that’s just sometimes how the cookie crumbles. It will not make a difference to how I view the bias here as both races were simply showed how a good draw can be wasted on some horses.

BEVERLEY 3-35

ATLANTIC AFFAIR….+8
* – NORMANDY KNIGHT….+4 – WON 2/1
* – BLUE MAISEY….-4
* – GUARACHA….-5
LAYLA’S KING….-10
CASTLE TALBOT….-15 – 5TH 3/1
TUKITINYASOK….-28
LYNNGALE….-35
ROSY RYAN….-40

RESULT – I was on the winner and laid CASTLE TALBOT. A good result!

CARLISLE 7-05

* – SALVATORE FURY….+1 – NR
* – OLDJOESAID….-5
ALPHA DELPHINI….-9 – NR
* – I’LL BE GOOD….-10 – WON 7/2
* – BRONZE BEAU….-15 – 2ND 10/3F
STATE OF THE UNION….-21
MONSIEUR JIMMY….-26
THORNABY PRINCESS….-31
L’AMI LOUIS….-40

RESULT – With two of my top three out this race was all about getting the advised lay, BRONZE BEAU, beaten. Success again! I dutched rated horses 2 & 4, got a bit back off that and it was another great race for me.

CARLISLE 7-35

* – IMSHIVALLA….+10 – 2ND 14/1
* – MUSTAQBAL….+4
H* – FAVOURITE TREAT….-7
* – GINGER JACK….-13 – WON 9/2
* – KIWI BAY….-14
DARK OCEAN….-18 – 4TH 4/1
* – GAMBINO….-25 – 6TH 10/3F
T – STOKED…-40

RESULT – This was the race I had been looking forward to most last night. On Tippedtolose I had advised we could lay the front two on the tissue, DARK OCEAN and GAMBINO. Job done. We actually got all five suggested lays beaten yesterday and from that perspective it was an outstanding day.

I had dutched my top three, gone 20/80 my top one and had small exotics and came up just short of that being a great race for me personally.

CARLISLE 8-35

* – TECTONIC….+5
* – SAVE THE BEES….+/-0 – WON 4/1
* – KAY GEE BE….+/-0
* – FAZZA….-2
* – CALL OF DUTY….-15
* – LAZARUS BELL….-18
FLAWLESS FILLY….-25
PADDY’S ROCK….-38
INDIAN GIVER….-40

RESULT – Another winner in my top two rated horses and a winning one for me.

HAYDOCK 2-50

GREAT HALL….+8
* – NOTARISED….+8 – WON 20/1 > 12/1
§* – KINEMA….+1
T§ – PENHILL….-1 – 4TH 4/1
T§ – BATTERSEA….-2
T§ – EXCELLENT RESULT….-3 – 6TH 20/1
T* – FARQUHAR….-4
WATERSMEET….-6
* – APTERIX….-7
T* – WINDSHEAR….-8
§ – JOHN REEL….-13
§ – GABRIAL’S STAR….-15
GABRIAL’S KING….-24
T – ELBERETH….-24
T – NANCY FROM NAIROBI….-27
LUNGARNO PALACE….-40

RESULT – I had profiled this a couple of days ago and advised a straight win play PENHILL. This actually highlights one of the ways in which profiling can thumb its nose at you. My final three on the profile was based on those horse being a 4-y-o, weighted accordingly and trading in the first six on the tissue. By the time this race had cut up and the market adjusted, the winner fitted every bit as much as PENHILL.

Those using the figures will have punted this winner.

HAYDOCK 4-35

T§* – FLEXIBLE FLYER….+12 – WON 7/1 > 11/2
T§* – NEW STRATEGY….+9 – 3RD 5/2
* – BOP IT….-6
T – SYDNEY RUFFDIAMOND….-8 – 4TH 12/1
* – ROYAL CONNOISSEUR….-10
§ – MUKAYNIS….-24 – 2ND 9/1
T- ALEDAID….-25
SIR BILLY WRIGHT….-28
RED HARRY….-34
§ – WHOZTHECAT….-37
§ – BALTIC PRINCE….-40

RESULT – Figures superb, draw read absolutely bang on and a very good profit taken from this one.

HAYDOCK 5-10

* – CHOSEN CHARACTER….+10
T – BASIL BERRY….+4
ABOVE THE REST….-4 – WON 11/1 > 8/1
* – MAJESTIC MOON….-11
ENLACE….-12
* – KHELMAN….-15
* – FAST SHOT….-16
GEORGIAN BAY….-24
ALEJANDRO….-26
T – ROYAL SEAL….-35
T – TOURNAMENT….-40

RESULT – Another seriously pleasing result from a Ratings perspective.

LEICESTER 2-05

* – MEANDMYSHADOW….+13
§* – VERUS DELICIA….+8
* – CAMINEL…+/-0
* – LOLITA….+/-0
§* – GOADBY….-4
§ – SAKHEE’S ROSE….-10
LUCKY DI….-19
§ – GOWER PRINCESS….-30
CHAMPAGNE CHARLEY….-36
BABY FACT….-40

RESULT – My Leicester figures were pants!

LEICESTER 3-15

STOCKHILL DIVA….+1 – 3RD 8/1
* – MIKADY….-7 – 2ND 3/1
INTIMATION….-13 – WON 6/5
JULIETA….-23
DEEP BLUE SEA….-33
SECRET LIGHTNING….-40
CORNISH PATH….-40

LEICESTER 3-50

RUBAN….+8 – 3RD 6/1
RED REFRACTION….+8 – 4TH 11/2
* – AQUA ARDENS….-6
* – FLASH FIRE….-7
* – CHISWICK BEY….-10
ASSAULT ON ROME….-20
* – YORK GLORY….-32
* – GEORGE CINQ….-35
FIELD GAME….-35
SECRET LOOK….-40
MON CIGAR….-40

LEICESTER 5-00

STORM RUNNER….+14
* – HICKSTER….+9
* – ROUGH COURTE….-1
* – FERRYVIEW PLACE….-7
WORLD RECORD….-10
* – POOR DUKE….-10 – WON 25/1
ZETEAH….-17
VENUTIUS….-18
QUINTA FEIRA….-26
LIBERTY SKY….-40
MARY’S PRAYER….-40

NOTTINGHAM 7-45

* – WE’LL SHAKE HANDS….+12
* – LORD FRANKLIN….+10
GO SAKHEE….+10 – WON 3/1
* – OCEAN APPLAUSE….-3
ZIGGY’S STAR….-6
* – MONSIEUR RIEUSSEC….-24
GAME SHOW….-37
T – SWEET MARTONI….-40

RESULT – Another winner in the top three rated but I got diddly from this race.

SANDOWN 2-35

§* – BASEM….+10 – WON 7/2
* – BALTIC KNIGHT….+10 – NR
T§* – JACOB BLACK….+9 – 5TH 8/1
§* – FIRE SHIP….+9 – NR
§* – SAHAAFY….+9
§ – MELVIN THE GRATE….+9
§* – MUNAASER….+8 – 2ND 20/1
T§* – IFWECAN….+8
T* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….+7
T§* – YOU’RE FIRED….+5 – NR
§* – HALATION….+3
§ – TOURNAMENT….+/-0 – NR
§ – SPARK PLUG….-9
§ – MASTER CARPENTER….-22
T – MISTER UNIVERSE….-25
BOOMSHACKERLACKER….-40 – NR
BARYE….-40

RESULT – Cracker. When you manage to find the winners of what are exceptionally competitive races it does give a sense of satisfaction.

The figures for the primary meetings at Sandown and Haydock were superb, if I may say so myself. We had 14 rated races to work with and the winners of nine were in my top three rated horses.

All five lays beaten, those five winners in the OF INTEREST section. I hit the pillow last night a happy man.

TODAY

What is it with Ayr and handicaps? I know of no other meeting that hosts so many such races on a single card, each and every time they race.

We have six rated races below and hopefully the accuracy of yesterday will be maintained. They have some wicked weather on its way (we all do!), from around 1-00pm….thunder, lightning and if the going changes at all, make a decision as to what you will do with those rated races. I myself have no intention of giving any of those profits from yesterday back to the enemy.

I have added text to those races which have a potential draw bias and those that do not will be played as the figures suggest. BALDUCCI looks to have an outstanding chance at 4-10.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Ayr / Sun 05 Jul
Updated @ Sun 05 Jul

Going/Track Good, Good to Soft in Places (GoingStick: 7.9 on Sunday at 06:15)

Rails: Innermost line in 6m adding 18yds to race distances 7f to 1m2f.

Stalls: 5f&6f: Far Side 7f: Outside Remainder: Inside

Watering: Watered (Weds/Thurs)

WeatherPast 24hrs = 1 mm rain up to 10am yesterday then dry, Max. 19c, min. 12c. Sunday – Dry & sunny start, showers possible in the afternoon (< 2mm) Monday - Sunny spells, showers late afternoon (< 2mm) Recent rainfall: Fri 26th - Mon 29th = 12.7mm, then dry until Thurs 2nd - 0.4mm; Fri 3rd - 9 mm; Sat 4th - 1mm ICONS * - Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described § - Indicates best drawn T - Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more H - Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc) FINAL FIGURES AYR 2-00 T* - LIGHT OF ASIA....+9 * - NAKEETA....+1 * - MERCHANT OF DUBAI....-4 T - ELTHEEB....-9 T - NONCHALANT....-17 T - OUR BOY JACK....-23 CORTON LAD....-26 HAYMARKET....-34 T - MASTERPAVER....-40 T - HANNO....-40 T - FRAMLEY GARTH....-40 AYR 2-30 T - CLIFTON MISS....+7 * - HENPECKED....-1 T - NOTTS SO BLUE....-1 T* - MYSTERIAL....-6 T - IFTIKAAR....-8 MOON ARC....-14 HERO'S STORY....-21 T - AL FURAT....-22 SPIRIT OF THE SEA....-24 T - HEAVENLY RIVER....-31 T - TOBOGGAN'S GIFT....-40 AYR 3-05 T* - ROCKWEILLER....+9 T* - AMAZING BLUE SKY....+3 T - HAIL BOLD CHIEF....-8 TESTA ROSSA....-13 WOLF HEART....-22 T - ARTISTIC FLARE....-29 T - MISTER UNO....-40 T - DANIEL THOMAS....-40 T - ZRUDA....-40 T - SPOKESPERSON....-40 T - GHOSTLY ARC....-40 AYR 3-35 § - ROYAL DUCHESS....+13 T* - MASH POTATO....+10 §* - TRAIL BLAZE....+10 T* - ADVANCE....+8 * - DARK CRYSTAL....+8 §* - ANOTHER FOR JOE....+2 ARGAKI....-6 T - MAKIN THE RULES....-9 T§ - SHEARIAN....-10 NEWMARKET WARRIOR....-24 T - LIBERTY SKY....-27 SILVER DUKE....-31 T§ - SONORAN SANDS....-33 NOTES: I'm going to work with my top three rated here...dutch and exotics. My top rated loves the place and has a box draw, MASH POTATO has a 2-3 strike rate on the ground and will be my 20/80. TRAIL BLAZE has a 38% strike rate on this good to soft they have and i'm hoping the rain stays away until after this is over. AYR 4-10 T* - BALDUCCI....+13 T* - DUBAI DYNAMO....+9 T* - NO POPPY....+6 T - EUTROPIUS....-8 T - FINN CLASS....-9 SOUND ADVICE....-18 T* - BORDER BANDIT....-20 PINTURA....-34 T - OBSIDIAN....-36 AYR 4-45 T* - GOLDEN SPUN....+15 T§ - BARNEY MCGREW....+9 * - MONEL....+8 * - ROCK CANYON....+8 T* - EXOTIC GUEST....+/-0 JINKY....-3 § - LADY DESIRE....-6 T - ORBIT THE MOON....-14 T - DOC CHARM....-18 § - EDGAR BALTHAZAR....-20 TH - LOCOMMOTION....-27 § - ORDER OF SERVICE....-29 T - MINISTER OF FUN....-30 T§ - CLOAK AND DEGAS....-36 NOTES: David O'Meara sends this one (and BALDUCCI in that race above), on a decent enough round trip and with GOLDEN SPUN 1-2 on this ground and 2-7 at the trip, I'm thinking we'll get a decent run for the shekels. I would have preferred a slightly higher draw but those having been blessed in that regard look moose-like and it could be middle takes advantage. I will dutch 1, 3 and 4, go 20/80 my top one and set up exotics. Have a brilliant day and the best of luck Kindest regards Ron

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