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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/08/15

Ron RobinsonThree year olds dominated those rated races yesterday and whilst producing my work for Tippedtolose it very quickly became clear the only race i’d be getting seriously involved in was the Windsor 7-00pm.

I’d actually said in yesterday’s Newsletter I had a good feeling about that one and would be going straight win the top rated and having posted up several provisional lays around 10:00am on the tippedtolose website it all came down to one at final update time.

“BAKHT A RAWAN….rates 5th best and is one of 3 x 3-y-o’s in here. One of the three tops my figures and one of them will more than likely win this race.

I have AMERICAN ARTIST the only horse in here having obtained a + figure and I think he’ll win this. If I believe that then I can lay BAKHT A RAWAN.

AMERICAN ARTIST has raced just five times in his life and gone off favourite each time. He has raced four times on turf and won twice. The only time he raced on this ground and his trainer has a 31% strike rate with 3-y-o’s here, compared to Mark Usher’s 2-14.

I will be punting AMERICAN ARTIST and laying BAKHT A RAWAN”

I’m really pleased with how things are going over there and if you are involved in laying horses please give very serious consideration to joining us.

TODAY

The younger age group dominates racing at Salisbury this afternoon and of the 40 horses rated across the four races from that meeting, 22 are 3-y-o’s. The 4-30pm race there sees six of the seven lining up just out of nappies. My top two rated head the tissue right now and I feel that’s “right”.

The race taking place there 30 minutes earlier is one for the “guessers”. Not a single runner has winning form on the ground, more than half the field are 3-y-o’s and seven of the 11 turning up rate -40.

If my figures have sorted that one out I’ll abseil naked down the Liver building!

We have eight rated races across three meetings and the Ripon 7-35 is most likely the only race I’ll be taking seriously.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Catterick Bridge / Tue 04 Aug
Updated @ Tue 04 Aug

Going/Track Good, Good to Firm in places

Rails: Bend into home straight moved out 2yds increasing distances for races of 6f to 1m6f by 6yds and 2m by 12yds

Stalls: All races – Inside

Weather Dry and breezy overnight 32mm rain last week Forecast: Tuesday – Mainly dry, breezy but overcast

Ripon / Tue 04 Aug
Updated @ Tue 04 Aug

Going/Track Good (GoingStick: 8.0 on Tuesday at 06:00)

Rails: Rail on bend from back straight to home straight dolled out 3 yards adding 6 yards to races on the round course

Stalls: Straight course and 2 miles – Stand side Round course – Inside rail

Weather 1.5mm of rain on Saturday, dry since. Tuesday – Mainly cloudy through the day with a chance of a scattered shower, windy. Becoming brighter for the evening – 19c

Salisbury / Tue 04 Aug
Updated @ Mon 03 Aug

Going/Track Good to Firm, Good in places last 6F (GoingStick: 8.6 on Monday at 16:15)

Rails: Erecting rail up last 6F up to 14ft off permanent far side rail

Stalls: 6F, 1M – Far side 7F – Centre 1M4F – Stands side

Watering: Watered 6mm on Saturday. Watered 5mm on Monday.

Weather 14.5mm rain last week. Sunday – dry and warm 22’c. Monday – 1.5mm rain first thing followed by a dry and breezy afternoon. Tuesday – forecasted to be dry and fairly breezy, 18’c.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

CATTERICK 3-15

* – SIR GEOFFREY….+10
§* – LORIMER’S LOT….+5
§ – SARTORI….-9
§ – EMILY DAVISON….-17
CAMANCHE GREY….-25
RED FOREVER….-26
YA BOY SIR….-31
§ – FREEZE THE SECRET….-35
KINLOCH PRIDE….-37
SUNRISE DANCE….-37
RAT CATCHER….-40
GO CHARLIE….-40

NOTES: I’m going to play my top trio to October Rules and have the 20/80 on LORIMER’S LOT.

CATTERICK 4-45

* – LAYLA’S HERO….+1
* – ORWELLIAN….+/-0
TAVENER….-1
* – SOLAR SPIRIT….-4
KOPTOON….-4
T* – ALASKAN WING….-5
* – ARMELLE….-7
TAKE THE LEAD….-19
ASHA….-31

SALISBURY 2-30

T§* – JUNGLE BAY….-1
§* – NOVERRE TO GO….-6
HOLLAND PARK….-10
§ – GROUNDWORKER….-11
* – DISHY GURU….-12
§ – SECRET SPIRIT….-21
LIGHTNING CHARLIE….-27
* – HOY HOY….-28
LUCKY DI….-35
SUITSUS….-40

SALISBURY 3-30

§* – BYRD IN HAND….-4
KINGSTON SASSAFRAS….-19
OVERSTONE LASS….-30
§ – GREEK ISLANDS….-32
§ – ZETEAH….-32
T§ – MOUNT CHEIRON….-40
ONELASTFLING….-40
REIGNING….-40
JERSEY BULL….-40
CROWNING STAR….-40
SKYE MORNING….-40

SALISBURY 4-00

CALITXO….-20
MALIH….-30
LADY D’S ROCK….-40
T – LOPITO DE VEGA….-40
GAVARNIE ENCORE….-40
NOBLE MASTER….-40
MOONSTONE LADY….-40
T – STARLIGHT BANNER….-40
HONG KONG JOE….-40
T – SUMMERLING….-40
DARK PHANTOM….-40

SALISBURY 4-30

T* – FRENZIED….+1
T* – ENTITY….-9
* – VICTORIA POLLARD….-11
T – GRACELAND….-13
SOUL SEARCHER….-20
SYRDARA….-26
STOCKHILL DIVA….-40

NOTES: I will be setting up a top two dutch, having a straight win play my top one and a straight exotic.

RIPON 7-05

* – ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI….+8
* – AZAGAL….-5
BELLE TRAVERS….-13
ATLANTIC AFFAIR….-16
T – AJAADAT….-24
* – STRICTLY GLITZ….-25
MARSH PRIDE….-27
* – LIL SOPHELLA….-30
SECRET LIGHTNING….-40

RIPON 7-35

* – RURAL CELEBRATION….+11
* – SILVANUS….+10
§ – SEVE….+9
§* – LEXINGTON PLACE….+9
H* – SEE THE SUN….+8
T§* – LADWEB….-1
* – BLITHE SPIRIT….-4
NOBLE STORM….-18
EVEN STEVENS….-21
§ – SINGUER….-22
PEARL ACCLAIM….-29
INXILE….-32

NOTES: My top rated has the worst of the draw but such is the form of that yard right now he may well overcome it. SILVANUS is drawn “2nd best” and I can see him running a big race here.
LEXINGTON PLACE is the only horse in here having draw and ground right and that one is my own 20/80 here.

I’ll dutch rated horse 1, 2 and 4 but i’m very much aware the only 3-y-o in here sits third best on my figures and if he handles underfoot conditions then he’ll quite possibly make me look stupid.

Have a brilliant day and the best of luck

Kindest regards

Ron

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