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Today’s Ratings and Advice 08/06/15

Ron RobinsonDo you know the part of my job that drives me nuts? It’s when I get an e-mail from a punter talking through his pocket.

To take one race…one day even, in isolation and damn a bloke (who is trying his best!), is not a good sign for the punting future of the e-mailer.

I was told I had put this member off backing Lady Gibraltar, because I had, in the text applied to that race yesterday, suggested the high draw was a “ball and chain”. It rated 2nd best on my figures and I was advised that “everyone knew a high draw was best at Goodwood”.

Really?

I replied to my e-mailer to inform him that in actual fact, the last 20 races run under those same conditions we saw for that race yesterday, had seen low and middle drawn horses win eight each, with high drawn horses winning four. I included also the fact that 64% of all placed horses over that same period of time had been drawn low.

On May 23rd I sent out the Ratings and advice for the race below….some may recall enjoying a nice 20/1 winner.

GOODWOOD 4-40

* – RED AGGRESSOR….+12
JOE PACKET….+10
§* – DIVINE CALL….+8 – WON 20/1
* – HEAD SPACE….+5
§* – PANDAR….+/-0
* – CREW CUT….-1
* – SECRET WITNESS….-7
T§* – ANGELITO….-11
* – TOP OFFER….-11
T – TAROOQ….-17
* – PETTOCHSIDE….-20
§ – LANGLEY VALE….-22
§ – LIGHT FROM MARS….-24
DOMINIUM….-40
MIDNIGHT RIDER….-40

NOTES: A high draw here is tantamount to having another 7lb at least in the saddle. The horse doing some serious winking at me is ANGELITO but he’s outside my top six and despite having those three icons next to his name he’s looking for all the world like a place only player. The problem for me is that the rest of those having been fortunate enough to obtain a prized low draw are not looking any great shakes. The two in my top six having got draw and ground right both come from the Milton Bradley yard and with Graham Lee and Franny Norton booked to ride, you would hope both could be competitive. They’ll be in my dutch along with CREW CUT. He has the seven box which is “best of the rest” of those in my top six rated horses.

My top rated looks to have that proverbial mountain to climb from the 13 draw and I’m afraid I expect him to uphold just how unlucky that number is.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – DIVINE CALL, PANDAR, CREW CUT
20/80 – DIVINE CALL
EXOTICS – DIVINE CALL, PANDAR, CREW CUT

My e-mailer never mentioned this and only responded to my pointing it out by saying he had not backed Divine Call that day….which had been drawn 2. The first three home that day were drawn 2, 4 and 5.

I was wrong yesterday by 3 x short heads and only gained access to information this morning that Lady Gibraltar is racing in foal which, for reasons nobody can explain, seems to improve a mare by stones!

It really is the most annoying aspect of what I’m doing.

If, after a season my advice has destroyed your betting bank then absolutely, give me pelters….but not one race….or one day.

TODAY

We have four meetings to work with but only a handful of races. Text will be added to those races I myself am most interested in playing, once I have uploaded them to the website

The reason we only have five rated races is that many of the all-aged handicaps contain a number of three year olds and I will not go near them for fear of my sanity.

Once we have Royal Ascot out of the way then I’ll start looking at them because I know certain trainers target them and we’ll know (as much as we can know), what is happening. A few days ago I had seen a David O’Meara three year old making it’s seasonal debut in an all aged handicap, Signorina Roseina – Catterick – June 5th – and this was also her fourth run of her career. She was making her handicap debut.

I had advised Bondi Beach Babe as being OF INTEREST in that race but no way was I going to work on it.

Suffice to say the O’Meara horse won it at 20/1….beating mine a neck in the process. Had I rated that race the winner would have been carrying a massive minus figure and not have been sighted in any text I may have applied to that race.

We simply let them go right now and work with “facts”.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Pontefract / Mon 08 Jun
Updated @ Mon 08 Jun

Going/TrackGood to Firm, Good in places over last 6 furlongs (Watered) (GoingStick: 8.3 on Monday at 06:15)

Rails: Rail has been dolled out 15 feet at from the 6f bend to the winning post, adding approximately 12 yards to all races.

Stalls: Inside all racesWatering: We watered on Thursday and Friday (3-5mm all round each day) and again on Sunday (5mm-7mm).

WeatherDry overnight. Chance of showers at lunchtime but dry for racing this evening with the winds lighter than recently and not as warm. 12mm rain in the preceding week but very breezy.

Windsor / Mon 08 Jun
Updated @ Sun 07 Jun

Going/TrackGood to Firm (Watering) (GoingStick: 8.7 on Sunday at 10:00)

Rails: Inner running rail of straight all moved to inner configuration, making the straight maximum width, thus providing fresh racing ground. Top bend dolled out 13yds from normal inner configuration adding 43yds to race distances of 1m+

Stalls: 1m 2f abt 7yds:- centre. Remainder:- inside.

Watering: Watering to maintain the current Going description. 5mm applied (Friday) 5mm being applied (Saturday) 3mm being applied today (Sunday)

Weather 1mm rainfall Monday. 1.8mm rainfall am Friday. Dry overnight. Sunday:- dry, sunny and warm 20c. Monday:- dry with sunny intervals during the day, with the risk of light rain showers from early evening 18c.

Thirsk / Mon 08 Jun
Updated @ Sun 07 Jun

Going/TrackGood to Firm (Watered) (GoingStick: 9.2 on Sunday at 11:30)

Rails: Both bends are dolled out circa 3-4 yards which adds approximately 15 yards to he standard distances over 7F & 8F and approximately 20 yards to the standard distance over 1M4F.

Stalls: Straight Course & 1M4F Start – Stands’Side Round Course – Inside

Weather Fair

Ayr / Mon 08 Jun
Updated @ Mon 08 Jun

Going/Track Good to Soft, Good in Places (GoingStick: 7.8 on Monday at 06:00)

Rails: Inside rail in 4m extending distances 7f – 1m2f by 12yds; 1m5f by 24yds. Stands’ side rail in 8m.Stalls: 5f & 6f – Centre 7f – Outside Remainder – Inside

WeatherPast 24hrs 1 mm of rain/ Max. 15c; Min. 5c. Monday – Dry with sunny spells Max. 13c Recent rainfall: Mon 1st – 8.5mm; Tues – 1.5mm; Weds – 1mm; Thurs – 2mm; Fri – 3mm; Sat – 4.5 mm; Sun – 1mm (Total = 21.5 mm)

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

AYR 5-30

T§* – MY NAME IS RIO….+12
T* – POLSKI MAX….+9
T – INNOCENTLY….+8
T* – RIGHT TOUCH….+4
T§* – SHARED EQUITY….+3
T§* – PIAZON….-6
LOVER MAN….-16
T§ – VALLARTA….-16
T – BOY IN THE BAR….-19
T – NAMEITWHATYOULIKE….-26
TIGER JIM….-34

NOTES: The five that have attempted to win at Ayr before have failed. That includes my top rated although, to be fair, he has only been here once before and he finished a very creditable third of 24 to Expose in the Bronze Cup!

He is 1-1 on good to soft, which is what is forecast, and has an excellent 25% strike rate (3-12), over six furlongs. Having gained all there icons, he has to be my 20/80.

I have two others also having secured that trio is signs and SHARED EQUITY, who is running here for the very first time is 1-3 on the ground and 2-4 over six furlongs. PIAZON also runs here for the first time and is 1-4 on good to soft, 1-4 at the trip.

They would both come into the “as good a chance as anything else in this race” category.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MY NAME IS RIO, SHARED EQUITY, PIAZON
20/80 – MY NAME IS RIO
EXOTICS – MY NAME IS RIO, SHARED EQUITY, PIAZON

PONTEFRACT 9-10

T§* – STONEFIELD FLYER….+12
* – SLEEPING APACHE….+9
* – SPRING BIRD….+8
* – OLDJOESAID….+4
§* – SCORELINE….+/-0
§* – SECRET MILLIONAIRE….-2
§* – OIL STRIKE….-2
* – THATCHERITE….-4
* – BRONZE BEAU….-7
JAN VAN HOOF….-18
BASHIBA….-19
FURAS….-40

NOTES: My top one is the second of today’s top rated horses to have attracted all three icons and with the yard in fine form he’s got the 20/80.

SLEEPING APACHE is very interesting, too. A 1-2 record at Pontefract, the same stats on good to firm ground and 1-3 at the trip. He would appear to have everything bar the draw gong for him. That 11 box will take a bit of overcoming.

The good draw could though, be wasted on both SCORELINE and SECRET MILLIONAIRE. They have just two wins from a combined total of 18 runs on good to firm (1 a piece), and whilst the trip is right, I’m not sure the track is….SCORELINE is 0-2 here whilst the other one makes his Pontefract debut.

The complete fly in the ointment is JAN VAN HOOF. The worst of the draw in 12 but he’s had just three runs in his life, never out of the first two, won his final race last season and Fahey has Hanagan booked. He is a “could be anything” horse and ensures my own staking is kept low here.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – STONEFIELD FLYER, SLEEPING APACHE, SPRING BIRD
20/80 – STONEFIELD FLYER
EXOTICS – STONEFIELD FLYER, SLEEPING APACHE, SPRING BIRD

THIRSK 3-45

* – KIWI BAY….-5
* – IFWECAN….-8
* – JUST PAUL….-12
COMINO….-20
SOPHISTICATED HEIR….-24
FAVOURITE TREAT….-35
CAPE WRATH….-40
MR RED CLUBS….-40

THIRSK 4-45

* – PERTUIS….-17
* – SAVE THE BEES….-20
* – CHRISTMAS LIGHT….-29
* – ENZAAL….-33
T – DHAULAR DHAR….-35
SHADOW OF THE DAY….-37
ROCHAMBEAU….-40
OLIVER’S GOLD….-40
SOLID JUSTICE….-40
STAMP DUTY….-40
FAIR TRADE….-40
QIBTEE….-40
MAGIC MAISIE….-40
TOURTIERE….-40

WINDSOR 7-20

H – PERSONA GRATA….+10
GO SAKHEE….+3
INSPECTOR NORSE….-3
* – MONSIEUR RIEUSSEC….-13
* – COTTON CLUB….-13
TEARS OF THE SUN….-17
RED WARRIOR….-40
RAVENOUS….-40
AIR OF GLORY….-40
SHARP SWORD….-40

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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