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Today’s Ratings and Advice 07/06/15

Ron RobinsonIt’s a fact….the Ratings are working extremely well right now. The primary way of measuring how they are performing is by simply monitoring the top rated horses.

We effectively started punting again properly on Thursday, following the spell of poor weather.

Since Thursday I have now rated 22 races. The figures have produced six top rated winners over that period 11/1 > 9/1, 15/2 > 13/2, 8/1 > 6/1, 9/2, EVENS, 5/6, 4 x runners up, 1 x 3rd placed and a non-runner.

Those that receive the work and just scroll down their Newsletter to the “Top Rated” section have, to SP, made a 12 point profit and those accepting the best deal in town (early prices), have made a profit of 18 points.

I have been using those figures to extrapolate lay information for those subscribed over on Tippedtolose and all three advices provided have duly lost. Yesterday Flintshire was the horse I believed could not win his race, explained why (although that was not a rated race, the same principles apply for laying), and we are now building up a head of steam over there. The summer is set to get into full swing now and it’s Royal Ascot a week on Tuesday. I expect, if history repeats itself, to do well there and then we can crack into the rest of the flat season.

Those around during the summer of 2013 will recall how amazing it was. I was explaining to one of our lady members yesterday (morning again, Jane), that between May 1st and September 30th that season we produced a profit of 370+ points. However, when investigating further Gary, who keeps our stats on the website, produced the numbers that showed that profit was gleaned to to a strike rate of just 18% and that the best period of “growth” was late June through to the second week in September. The last week of September we dropped 30+ points.

We have now looked at ways in which strike rate can be increased and pass all this on to you.

It is absolutely no coincidence that those profits achieved in the last 72 hours, arrived as the sun shone.

I myself looks at several angles when looking for a play in each of my rated races and can appear to sometimes “over egg the omelette” but you can keep it simple, look at the long game and you’ll do ok.

If you make a decision that success of failure regarding making a profit all rests on “one day”, you will never make the game pay. If you can say to yourself, “I’ll see how my profit/loss figure is in 12 months time”, you’ll again, do ok.

It makes it all much more enjoyable, too.

TODAY

Quiet. Just two rated races from the lone meeting at Goodwood and I have promised the girls a day of shopping to get the last minute items they’ll need when they go away on holiday next Saturday, leaving me to bury my head in my Royal Ascot work.

My plan today is, take them to where they wish to shop, find a nice coffee shop, sit and watch the world go by and read a newspaper before meeting up for lunch.

Back here then to prep tomorrows racing…Ayr, Pontefract, Thirsk and Windsor.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Goodwood / Sun 07 Jun
Updated @ Sat 06 Jun

Going/TrackGood (GoingStick: 7.3 on Friday at 10:00)

Rails: First 2 furlongs of 1 Mile course dolled out 5 yards

Stalls: Straight course Stand Side Round course Inside except 1M 3F.which is outside

Watering: Watering to maintain

WeatherDry since 12 noon yesterday and dry again today.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

GOODWOOD 3-00

* – MANOMINE….+8
* – SALIENT….-1
SILVER DIXIE….-4
* – ETON RAMBLER….-4
* – UPHOLD….-15
ARANTES….-23
PRAIRIE TOWN….-29
NO WIN NO FEE….-40
BEEP….-40
SWEET MARTONI….-40
TILSTARR….-40

NOTES: I am pleased to see MANOMINE top of my ratings. He is the only horse in here with ticks in three of the more important boxes….track, trip and ground. A winner on his only previous visit to Goodwood he’s 2-5 at 11 furlongs. If it continues to dry out and went good to firm I would be even happier. He actually won this race last year on genuine good ground so if Clive has him ripe, he’s obviously going to run a big race.

Only UPHOLD and PRAIRIE TOWN, of the rest, have not raced here before and and the other eight have tried 15 times between them and failed.

MANOMINE is good fresh, his record first time out since his juvenile days, 1, 4, 2 proof of that.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MANOMINE, SALIENT, ETON RAMBLER
20/80 – MANOMINE
EXOTICS – MANOMINE, SALIENT, ETON RAMBLER

GOODWOOD 3-30

§* – DISHY GURU….+9
* – LADY GIBRALTAR….+5
* – PANDAR….+4
T§* – ANGELITO….-2
* – GINZAN….-11
SLIP SLIDING AWAY….-14
§ – GO NANI GO….-17
SANDFRANKSKIPSGO….-22
§ – DIAMOND CHARLIE….-35
LANGLEY VALE….-40
FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….-40

NOTES: A low draw worth it’s weight in gold…if such a thing can be weighed. A superbly competitive race, four previous winners at Goodwood taking it in and the trip right up the street of all bar three….SLIP SLIDING AWAY, FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN and LANGLEY VALE having raced eight times at five furlongs and finding the race over before they get going. That same trio have had 17 runs on genuine good ground and not a win between them. Add a double figure draw to two of them….FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN and LANGLEY VALE and I’ll be surprised to see them run…unless, of course, they are being “handicapped” for another day.

If you have a low draw, you have a head start. I have two in my top six, DISHY GURU and ANGELITO, that I hope are good enough to take advantage because they are the first two names in my dutch. It is a tad disconcerting that both ANGELITO’s win have come at Bath but he ran well here recently when third to our very nice 20/1 winner, DIVINE CALL. I’ll play him 20/80 though because he’s collared all three icons.

LADY GIBRALTAR has a nine box to work with and that’s a ball and chain. PANDAR has seven and this CD winner will most likely struggle from there

That leaves GINZAN to make up my three. He has six, which is not great but, it could be worse, couldn’t it. He has never raced here before but has a 20% strike rate at five furlongs, has winning form on good and arrives here in form.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – DISHY GURU, ANGELITO, GINZAN
20/80 – ANGELITO
EXOTICS – DISHY GURU, ANGELITO, GINZAN

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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