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Today’s Ratings and Advice 31/05/15

Ron RobinsonIt is Sunday and as is usual, we have a look back (warts ‘n’ all), at how things went yesterday.

If you visited the website yesterday you would have found text added to several races and this is what went up:

CHEPSTOW 7-15

* – SARANGOO….+1 – 2ND 9/1
* – EMILIO LARGO….-2 – NR
UNCLE DERMOT….-2
MIME DANCE….-5 – WON 3/1
VINCENTTI….-21
COOL BAHAMIAN….-23
T – TELLOVOI….-24
STRATEGIC FORCE….-40

RESULT – I didn’t bet a bean at this meeting. If I had, I would have been on my top rated 20/80 and still wondering about those things coming in “threes”…this one was done a nose. The first two home in my top three rated is always pleasing though.

CHEPSTOW 7-45

* – PRIM AND PROPER….+4
AVOCADEAU….-6 – WON 3/1
* – IF I WERE A BOY….-10
MARENGO….-12
STAR ANISE….-18
MY SON MAX….-31
BEEDEE….-38
PENDO….-40
BALLYGLASHEEN….-40

RESULT – Again happy with my figures as the winner is in the top pair on my numbers.

CHEPSTOW 8-15

MINNEAPOLIS….+11
RIDEONASTAR….+8 – NR
HIGHWAY CODE….+8
ARANTES….-12
MAY BE SOME TIME….-24
* – GRAN MAESTRO….-25
* – IFAN….-25
H – GLASGOW CENTRAL….-35

RESULT – Interesting that the favourite for this and that race above had both sat bottom of my figures and both were beaten. Next month (summer officially starts tomorrow), will hopefully see that start of our cracking on both punting and laying wise. This race, I have to admit, was the race that had me thinking Chepstow was best left to those attending for a night out.

CHEPSTOW 8-45

NELLIES QUEST….+15 – WON 11/4 > 15/8
LUCKY STARS….+13
H – INDIAN SCOUT….+8
LADY PERCY….-8
STAFFORD CHARLIE….-15
* – MAJIZ….-20
ROLY TRICKS….-25
* – BROWN PETE….-25
ILLEGALE….-31
H – EASYDOESIT….-32
XCLUSIVE….-34
T – HAPPY JACK….-35
SURPRISE US….-40

RESULT – The figures were spot on, a nice top rated winner for those getting involved in what was a horrible race on paper.

CHESTER 3-00

§* – WILDE INSPIRATION….+11 – 3RD 9/2
* – BERTIEWHITTLE….+10
* – MARCRET….+9
§* – NAVAJO CHIEF….+2
* – GABRIAL’S KAKA….-1
T* – SHYRON….-2
T* – BADDILINI….-6
LOVING SPIRIT….-7
T§* – PATENTAR….-8
T* – CHOOKIE ROYALE….-9
BARAWEEZ….-15
T§ – APOSTLE….-20
T§ – JALLOTA….-28

NOTES: I have two in my top six having draw and ground right. I always see Navajo Chief as needing a nice long straight to aim at and York suits him perfectly. Only one run here previously and that saw him finish 5th of seven. He does seem to be getting harder to win with but, in his favour, he has won first time out for the last two seasons.

WILDE INSPIRATION has been here twice before and finished 2nd and 3rd. With no no ground an inconvenience on all known form to date, he’s got to be competitive this afternoon.

MARCRET has won here on there separate occasions. He would not want conditions to get any quicker than good but, with the sun shining and a lovely afternoon in prospect, it may well hinder his chances.

BERTIEWHITTLE has won on one of the two occasions he has raced here (form figures at chester read 3, 1),…so why have they not let him return since he won way back in 2011? Strange one.

I am happy to work with rated horses 1, 2 and 4.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – WILDE INSPIRATION, BERTIEWHITTLE, NAVAJO CHIEF
20/80 – WILDE INSPIRATION
EXOTICS – WILDE INSPIRATION, BERTIEWHITTLE, NAVAJO CHIEF

RESULT – My top one came up just over a length short. The figures were all over the place here and I may revisit this to have another look.

CHESTER 5-20

§* – STETCHWORTH….+11 – 2ND 5/1
* – POSTSCRIPT….+9
§ – LAWYER….+9
* – MICA MIKA….+8
§* – ARDMAY….+2
T* – CORTON LAD….-9
T – ISABELLA BIRD….-18
§ – EMPRESS ALI….-22
T – REMBRANDT VAN RIJN….-25 – WON 7/1 > 5/1
KINEMA….-33

RESULT – Another top rated that has run well. That winner had been prominent in my figures on two occasions recently but was withdrawn. That was only his seventh run yesterday and he looked a decent type. My top one had a bit of trouble getting out and finished fast when he did but that winner won cosy and I would have been beaten either way.

HAYDOCK 4-55

PARK PLACE….+16 – NR
* – SHAHDAROBA….+10
* – WE’LL SHAKE HANDS….+3
§* – ISHIKAWA….+/-0
* – WOODY BAY….-4
* – TOGA TIGER….-14
MFIFTYTHREEDOTCOM….-15
§ – OFF THE PULSE….-16
JANAAB….-20
* – GAMBINO….-21
T§* – EMPRESS TOORAH….-25
DARK OCEAN….-32
§ – SLEMY….-35
T§ – ILLUSIVE….-37
DHA CHARA….-39

RESULT – If you stood my figures on their heads they made a little more sense here. The ground would have been drying out through the day but I doubt it made that much difference and I will file this under “wrong”.

NEWMARKET 3-20

MAJEED….+16 – 5TH 9/1
* – DASHING STAR….+12 – 2ND 8/1
T* – MODERNISM….+5 – 6TH 12/1
* – ELHAAME….+/-0 – 4TH 6/1
* – PENHILL….-12
T* – NOTARISED….-12
WATERSMEET….-15 – WON 8/1
FARQHAR….-17
URBAN CASTLE….-35 – 3RD 12/1
NINETY MINUTES….-40

RESULT – This just looks plain weird. My top rated was given a very strange ride (watch it back if you can) and that horse will be winning again soon.

NEWMARKET 5-40

RAY WARD….+17
* – EURYSTHEUS….+12 – 4TH 25/1 > 20/1
* – SQUIRE….+3 – 2ND 8/1
T* – SEA THE SKIES….+/-0
* – MYTHICAL MADNESS….-4 – 3RD 5/1
* – DONNY ROVER….-11
* – PURPLE SPECTRUM….-21
* – LONDON CITIZEN….-31
FORGOTTEN HERO….-40
* – SIR JACK LAYDEN….-40
CAPTAIN MORLEY….-40
ENERGIA FOX….-40

RESULT – I was on the fourth placed horse 20/80. I had the second and fourth in my dutch. Three of the first four home in my top five, I have to be happy with the figures

YORK 1-45

* – DUSKY QUEEN….+11 – 3RD 9/1 > 7/1
* – ALFRED HUTCHINSON….+9 – 2ND 8/1
TH§* – MAJESTIC MOON….+5 – 6TH 14/1
§* – LOUIS THE PIOUS….+3
* – ALEJANDRO….+/-0
T* – FOXTROT ROMEO….-5
§* – DIESCENTRIC….-5
* – AL KHAN….-5
§* – BLAINE….-6
* – PENITENT….-10
* – ONE WORD MORE….-11
* – RENE MATHIS….-13
T* – HIGHLAND COLORI….-14
§ – SO BELOVED….-20 – WON 12/1 > 10/1
§ – WEE JEAN….-35
TH – PASSING STAR….-36

NOTES: I hate races in which one trainer is responsible for a 1/3rd of the runners and David O’Meara has no fewer than five of the 16 runners. A few days back he had three of eight and took it with his 25/1 outsider. Not surprisingly, the favourite was boxed in and could never get competitive.

I am thinking a low draw may have scuppered ALFRED HUTCHINSON today but both turf wins to date have come here (over a mile, winning by a neck and a head), so you cannot discount him and you certainly would not want to be a layer.

DUSKY QUEEN has won three times at York….definitely one to have on side given that rating this afternoon. Good ground is spot on and it’s just the step up in grade which might find her out.

MAJESTIC MOON has a full house of icons. First time headgear might well help this one and he won over CD in July 2013 before going on to be twice successful in higher grade. He has the lot in his favour if John Gallagher can get him back to the form he produced for Richard Fahey

Everything though, hinges on what the O’Meara crew get up to during this race.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – DUSKY QUEEN, ALFRED HUTCHINSON, MAJESTIC MOON
20/80 – MAJESTIC MOON
EXOTICS – DUSKY QUEEN, ALFRED HUTCHINSON, MAJESTIC MOON

RESULT – It was plain as day O’Meara would win this and whilst I was very pleased with my figures he did me up like a kipper.

YORK 2-55

T* – KINGSGATE CHOICE….+12
* – MONSIEUR JOE….+9 – WON 10/1 > 9/1
§* – WILLBEME….+9 – 3RD 12/1
T§* – DUKE OF FIRENZE….+2
§* – ANCIENT CROSS….+1
LINE OF REASON….-1
T* – NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM….-2
* – NOBLE STORM….-8
* – LEXI’S HERO….-8
T§* – CHILWORTH ICON….-10
* – PERFECT PASTURE….-11
* – ADDICTIVE DREAM….-17
* – RED BARON….-20
§ – ASTROPHYSICS….-21
§ – BOGART….-25
* – KIMBRELLA….-28
T – GREEN DOOR….-33
§ – MAPPIN TIME….-34
CAPTAIN DUNNE….-39
T§ – FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….-40

NOTES: Don’t blink. I have three in my top six with draw/ground “right”….

WILLBEME, a winner of five of his 18 races to date, has a great box to run from, is 1-3 at York, will be suited perfectly to how this will be run and his demolition job of BONDESIRE here last June augurs well.

DUKE OF FIRENZE has that trio of icons and with a trip/ground record of 3-11 and 4-11 respectively, you know this one can be competitive for a trainer who knows for sure how to get a sprinter ready.

ANCIENT CROSS….a Tim Easterly runner who is 2-18 at York, has winning form at the trip and on the ground provided today and with the trainer having had a nice Haydock winner yesterday, it’s a yard in form that we have on side. Ok, he’s now an 11 year old with several of these having the potential to improve right past him but if Easterly didn’t think he still had it in him, he’d not be here.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – WILLBEME, DUKE OF FIRENZE, ANCIENT CROSS
20/80 – DUKE OF FIRENZE
EXOTICS – WILLBEME, DUKE OF FIRENZE, ANCIENT CROSS

RESULT – Those playing “old school” have enjoyed this. I didn’t. Figures great but decision making very poor.

YORK 3-30

* – EMERALDHZ….+9 – 6TH 6/1
T* – ACR LIGHTER….+/-0
T* – COMEDY KING….-8 – 5TH 5/1
* – SAVED BY THE BELL….-17
* – TOP OF THE GLAS….-21
* – OUR GABRIAL….-25
T* – PRESSURE POINT….-25 – WON 5/1
* – AMBLESIDE….-27
* – DANCE KING….-29 – 2ND 12/1
INNOCENT TOUCH….-38 – 4TH 7/1
FULL DAY….-40
MIDNIGHT GAME….-40
INDIAN CHIEF….-40
T – SPECTATOR….-40 – 3RD 9/1
SNOWMANE….-40

I left this alone for punting purposes. I had no good feelings from it whatsoever…very Chepstow-ish and another that was simply all over the place.

The OF INTEREST section performed well:

TAZZFIN – 2ND 6/1
(York 4-40) – 20/80
SHALAA – WON 9/2
(Newmarket 2-10) – 20/80
SNOANO – UP
(Newmarket 2-45) – 20/80
TRENDSETTER – WON 7/1
(Chester 4-10) – 20/80
VIVE MA FILLE – 2ND 3/1
(Chester 4-45) – 20/80
CRITERIA – UP
(Haydock 2-00) – 20/80
OPTIMYSTIC – UP
(Chepstow 6-15) – 20/80

TODAY

Just Nottingham…and a chance to clear my head. If this rain stops we’ll have a good walk along the Prom and visit a coffee house.

Two rated races below, both very competitive looking. It has been raining down there, they are due more so best advised to confirm they do still race on good ground before getting heavily involved.

TIPPEDTOLOSE

We will be seriously getting stuck in here from Monday as summer arrives….officially. May has been a weird month but I have been extremely happy with how this new service has started.

It will get better as we see drier, warmer weather and formlines being to settle down.

If you would like to join those already on board please visit www.tippedtolose.co.uk

ASSUMPTIONS:

Nottingham / Sun 31 May
Updated @ Sun 31 May

Going/TrackGood (GoingStick: 9.5 on Friday at 07:00)

Rails: Outer track. Standard distances.

Stalls: 5&6f – stands side; 1m – centre; Remainder – inside

Watering: 8mm applied Wednesday. 5mm applied to bends Saturday.

Weather

8mm rain Friday morning. 5mm rain overnight. Currently overcast, chance of further showers through this morning. Overcast this afternoon, with temperatures of around 12C.

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURESNOTTINGHAM 3-45

* – IT MUST BE FAITH….+16
§* – BURNING THREAD….+15
* – DOUBLE UP….+12
BLITHE SPIRIT….+9
JUDGE ‘N JURY….+9
* – FREE ZONE….+8
§ – HARROGATE FAIR….+4
* – SLEEPY SIOUX….+/-0
§* – POWERFUL WIND….-7
§* – ROYAL MEZYAN….-15
* – VAN ELLIS….-25
RUSTY ROCKET….-28
TOP BOY….-34
BORDERLESCOTT….-40

NOTES: My top rated will welcome more rain and with his last two wins coming at this track on good to soft…let it rain! he has draw “second best…I’m favouring high over middle, low a little further off them. I would have preferred a little higher than six but the circumstance…track, trip ground (if it turns good to soft), and Hayley Turner up, who has won on him those last two times, all smacks of the horse being “off”.

The ground easing will suit a fair few of these, including my friend Paul Green’s runner, RUSTY ROCKET. He loves this place, it’s his trip and I know Paul will have been doing a rain dance.

The more rain that falls, the less chance BURNING THREAD has. He practically needs to hear his feet rattling! His form figures on anything slower than good are: 25, 10, 3, 4, 12, 13, so if it gets in, I expect him to struggle.

DOUBLE UP is the one I am most interested in. Very lightly raced he was dropped to five furlongs for his last start and bolted up. He did struggle when he raced on good to soft, finishing 10th of 12 at Newmarket and for that reason alone, I’ll be with my top one 20/80.

MY PLAY (based on the going remaining genuinely good):

DUTCH – IT MUST BE FAITH, BURNING THREAD, DOUBLE UP
20/80 – IT MUST BE FAITH
EXOTICS – IT MUST BE FAITH, BURNING THREAD, DOUBLE UP

NOTTINGHAM 5-45

* – COMMISSAR….+2
§ – LACERTA….-1
§* – JAMAICA GRANDE….-2
* – GREYEMKAY….-9
§ – DAKOTA CITY….-11
JETHOU ISLAND….-18
RED INCA….-21
H* – FERDY….-22
KANTARA ISLAND….-24
§ – FAIR COMMENT….-29
§ – MATRAASH….-32
§ – BAJAN REBEL….-35
FRONT RUN….-40
CAPTAIN STARLIGHT….-40
TRADER JACK….-40
LYNNGALE….-40

NOTES: A complete pooch of a race and if I do get involved it will be a 20/80 JAMAICA GRANDE only!

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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