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Today’s Ratings and Advice 25/05/15

Ron RobinsonA quiet day yesterday. It gave me time to prep today’s work early and put my feet up last night. A nice change.

TODAY

For a Bank Holiday Monday it’s very light on racing. Four meetings offering up a day out for those lucky enough to be attending but two of those meetings take place at racecourses I would wave crosses and garlic at.

Windsor and Leicester give me the “yips”. I look for ghosts, even though I know they do not exist.

Small fields are in abundance, and only six of the 80 horses I have rated today have been sent on a round trip of 300 miles to race. Only three of the nine rated races has a double figure field and just one offers me a potential draw bias to play with (Windsor 4-05).

The figures are working right now, the weather is set fair and I’ll work with what I have.

I have added text only to that race at Windsor providing the semblance of a draw bias as those small field races everywhere else will see me simply trusting to my numbers.

PODCAST

Today Sean and I will be doing the first of our daily podcasts. Monday to Thursday they will be around 10 minutes long and we will look at the one race both of us feels offers a chance of a profit. The Friday gig lasting the usual length of time and will see the return of our weekend competitions.

TIPPEDTOLOSE

With the dry weather here and temperatures improving we can now look to crack on with the new service. It has been a bit stop/start due to the inclement weather and the ground changing as soon as you turn your back and laying horses is no different to backing them.

Today I will be indicating those (if they exists), short priced horses I believe we can crack into and providing my reasoning for those lays going up.

I am also putting together a texting service this week through which I can send out an update for lay advice. Thank you to those members that have already provided their mobile telephone numbers.

It goes without saying they will never be passed on to a third party.

ASSUMPTIONS:

    • Carlisle / Mon 25 May
      Updated @ Sun 24 May

      Going/Track

      Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: 7.7 on Friday at 14:00)

      Rails: Rail on inside

      Stalls: All on inside, except for 1m 3f when on outside

      Watering: Selective watered Friday 6mm. No further planned

    • Weather

      1mm overnight. Sunday – dry and cloudy 14C Monday – dry and cloudy 13C

    • Windsor / Mon 25 May
      Updated @ Mon 25 May

      Going/Track

      Good to Firm, Good in Places. (Watered) updated Going Stick reading to follow later.

      Rails: Inner of straight dolled out 15yds at 6f and 8yds at the winning line. Top bend dolled out 13yds from normal inner configuration, adding 51yds to race distances of 1m+

      Stalls: 1m 2f abt 7yds and 1m 3f abt 135yds:- centre. Remainder:- inside.

      Watering: 5-7mm was applied to the whole of the racecourse fri/sat. Watering finished 2pm Saturday.

    • Weather

      Dry overnight. Monday:- dry and cloudy feeling slightly cooler 15c.

    • Leicester / Mon 25 May
      Updated @ Sun 24 May

      Going/Track

      Good to Firm, Good in places(Watered) (GoingStick: 7.1 on Sunday at 07:15)

      Stalls: Straight- Stands side Round- Inside

      Watering: We will review the watering plan if the rain fails to arrive and may selectively water on Sunday.

    • Weather

      Dry overnight. Forecast: Sunday – Possible light rain in the morning (1-3mm),then dry overnight. Monday – Dry and cloudy. Tuesday- Dry and cloudy.

    • Redcar / Mon 25 May
      Updated @ Sun 24 May

      Going/Track

      Good to Firm Good in places (GoingStick: 9.2 on Saturday at 07:30)

      Stalls: Straight Course – Centre Round Course – Inside

      Watering: Watering: 3mm has been applied to the whole track since 6.00 am on Saturday and a further 3mm will be applied on Sunday morning, subject to quantity of rainfall.

    • Weather

      8.5mm of hail/rain on Tuesday, dry since. Saturday dry with sunny periods and a max of +17C, 2mm of rain on Sunday morning with a max of +15C. Monday and Tuesday both overcast +15C

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURESCARLISLE 2-00

* – HAAJES….-3
* – TOM SAWYER….-8
* – BRONZE BEAU….-8
* – LITTLE ELI….-10
* – JUMBO STEPS….-13
RYLEE MOOCH….-26
CAPTAIN SCOOBY….-26
BUSY BIMBO….-40

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – HAAJES, TOM SAWYER, BRONZE BEAU
20/80 – HAAJES
EXOTICS – HAAJES, TOM SAWYER, BRONZE BEAU

CARLISLE 2-35

* – SALVATORE FURY….+12
* – STONEFIELD FLYER….+11
* – MANATEE BAY….+6
H* – CAN YOU CONGA….-7
* – RISK ‘N’ REWARD….-11
* – RASAMAN….-13
FURAS….-19
DUTCH BREEZE….-30

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – SALVATORE FURY, STONEFIELD FLYER, MANATEE BAY
20/80 – SALVATORE FURY
EXOTICS – SALVATORE FURY, STONEFIELD FLYER, MANATEE BAY

CARLISLE 4-20

* – LAZARUS BELL….+14
MERCERS ROW….+9
CHISWICK BEY….+6
* – JANAAB….+2
* – OLD MAN CLEGG….-3
* – IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS….-8
ADVANCE….-19

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – LAZARUS BELL, JANAAB
20/80 – LAZARUS BELL
EXOTIC – LAZARUS BELL, JANAAB

LEICESTER 2-05

* – CHAPTER AND VERSE….+4
MINSTREL LAD….-4
SEXY SECRET….-13
RUSSIAN REMARQUE….-20
JACOBS SON….-27
SCARLET SASH….-39
ELA GOOD LA MOU….-40
DARK DIAMOND….-40

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – CHAPTER AND VERSE, MINSTREL LAD, SEXY SECRET
STRAIGHT WIN – CHAPTER AND VERSE
EXOTICS – CHAPTER AND VERSE, MINSTREL LAD, SEXY SECRET

LEICESTER 3-15

* – AVAILABLE….+7
* – PAGEANT BELLE….-8
* – TWO IN THE PINK….-8
PRETTY BUBBLES….-16
CLUMBER PLACE….-17
* – REFUSE COLETTE….-22
T – MAUNTRI….-32
REPECHAGE….-40

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – AVAILABLE, PAGEANT BELLE, TWO IN THE PINK
STRAIGHT WIN – AVAILABLE
EXOTICS – AVAILABLE, PAGEANT BELLE, TWO IN THE PINK

REDCAR 3-20

* – MAKIN THE RULES….+9
* – VALENTINO OYSTER….-4
* – EUTROPIUS….-8
* – DUKE OF YORKSHIRE….-11
T* – SOV….-12
STORM RIDER….-21
* – TIGER TWENTY TWO….-30
MOONLIGHT VENTURE….-37
T – TOWER POWER….-40
ARCHIPELIGO….-40

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MAKIN THE RULES, VALENTINE OYSTER, EUTROPIUS
20/80 – MAKIN THE RULES
EXOTICS – MAKIN THE RULES, VALENTINO OYSTER, EUTROPIUS

REDCAR 3-55

* – CHANCERY….+10
T* – BIG THUNDER….+8
* – SILVERY MOON….-6
* – LIBRAN….-8
* – HIT THE JACKPOT….-16
* – FIRE FIGHTING….-17
T* – YEAGAR….-27
MASTER OF FINANCE….-30
T – REBELLIOUS GUEST….-40

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – CHANCERY, BIG THUNDER, SILVERY MOON
20/80 – BIG THUNDER
EXOTICS – CHANCERY, BIG THUNDER, SILVERY MOON

WINDSOR 2-55

REMBRANDT VAN RIJN….+15
* – MUBTADI….+14
* – STARWATCH….+3
CRAFTMANSHIP….-2
* – OCEAN APPLAUSE….-5
* – LUCKY HENRY….-9
* – MEETINGS MAN….-13
SOLO HUNTER….-21
UNCLE DERMOT….-22
AUTOMATED….-40

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MUBTADI, STARWATCH, OCEAN APPLAUSE
20/80 – MUBTADI
EXOTICS – MUBTADI, STARWATCH, OCEAN APPLAUSE

WINDSOR 4-05

* – TROJAN ROCKET….+12
WHALEWEIGH STATION….+12
* – EQUITY RISK….+11
* – SHINGLE….+10
§ – KINGLAMI….+8
H* – NOBLE DEED….+5
CHARLES MOLSON….+/-0
§ – DON’T HAVE IT THEN….-10
§ – PARISIEN PYRAMID….-14
§ – WAHAAB….-18
PLUCKY DIP….-25
SECRET WITNESS….-31

NOTES: The only race in which I have a draw bias to work with this afternoon. It is marginal to be fair and with those having been granted a box seat have tried 16 times between them to win on the going as currently described and all have come up short every time. My second highest rated horse has also attempted to win over this trip on nine previous occasions and got diddly for it.

My top rated has not won on turf for nigh on exactly two years….27/05/13….over this course and distance, on good ground. That was the only previous run here so he’s defending a 100% record this afternoon. He has won no fewer than 10 of his 30 races over six furlongs and whilst most have come on all weather tracks, that’s some stat. George Baker rides and he has ridden the horse to two of it’s last three wins so he know the horse well enough.

EQUITY RISK has his trip this afternoon…2-4….and races here for the first time. He has won one of his four runs on good to firm but his overall profile suggests a slightly slower surface might suit. Still only a five year old and back to his right level, I would be thinking a good run is on the cards, his first time out figures in a grade lower than Class 2 reading 1, 2.

SHINGLE makes up my dutch. He is 2-6 at the trip and won on his only start on turf that had good to firm as it’s going description. Only a four year old and lightly raced too, I’ll work with him on his first run at Windsor.

KINGLAMI like this place and has won 33% of his races here but his form figures on good to firm read: 7, 3, 2, 3, 7, 2

Not proof he cannot win on it but I’m thinking he may be vulnerable to those that have already proven they can win on it. He has a good draw to work with and his debut run of this season was decent enough…here over the same trip, on good to firm. I would think the trainer of SHINGLE knows where he stands with this one though as his SMIDGEN was just a neck back in third that day.

Good race….even if it is Windsor!

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – TROJAN ROCKET, EQUITY RISK, SHINGLE
20/80 – TROJAN ROCKET
EXOTICS – TROJAN ROCKET, EQUITY RISK, SHINGLE

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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