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Today’s Ratings and Advice 16/05/15

Ron RobinsonThe figures very much came back to life yesterday and it coincided with the three tracks south of Carlisle all had a dry day, without hinderance from those rains.

Three top rated winners, two races throwing up a top two 1/2 and Croquembouche running a cracker to finish second @ 14/1, we hopefully have a lot to look forward to today.

TODAY

I intend getting tomorrow’s work prepped and done as soon as is possible because this evening we are taking the family out to celebrate the birthday’s of my son and Karen’s daughter, a big table booked at a brilliant Chinese restaurant down Parkgate way.

I’m going to have to take a serious look at how I work, now that Tippedtolose is also live, As I have advised to those that have queried why this serve ice is not part of any Post Racing package, the way I am producing my work for the new website goes way beyond what has previously been done and I would suggest that, on a day like today, it’s an additional five hours work.

I’m very much looking forward to Thirsk and I recall one of our members asked me to take a good look at that meeting as he and few lads will be looking to cover the cost of their day out.

It’s hugely competitive stuff but hopefully the ratings point them in the right direction regarding those handicaps.

Of the other races there:

1-55….I’m following the career of Approve as a stallion and UNLIT is my fancy here. Having had a run already I am hoping she will prove my opinion that Approve will be a seriously good stallion right. You have to fear the Johnston debutante Dawaa but Mick Channon only sends a juvenile here when he fancies it to do the job.

2-30….I’m thinking LITTLE LOTTE will give supporters a good run for their money on debut. Kodiac’s are speedy things at two and with Karl burke having a 33% strike rate with 2-y-o’s at Thirsk, I’d anticipate it being ready to go and is priced to go 20/80.

3-05….3-y-o handicaps are harder to solve than a Rubiks Cube. SANDGATE is winking at me, making handicap debut for Fahey but we have four such horses in here doing just that. I’d have a bit e.w. that one and a straight win SECRET LIGHTNING, who is match fit, won over CD here last weekend, and hopefully one of them gives you a good run for your money.

The rest have been rated or included in my OF INTEREST section.

TIPPED TO LOSE

It has been a week of caution. I use my work to not only find winners but, to also find those trading short that are simply not priced up correctly and fit for laying.

Yesterday I posted up two, one of which came with a proviso regarding price, which was not met but the one race I was happy with produced those playing with a superb result, and those laying with….a superb result. Double whammy they are called….and as the summer goes on you will see many more of them.

The race in question was this one:

NEWMARKET 4-40

* – MUSADDAS….+9 – WON 7/1
T§* – JACOB BLACK….-3 – 2ND 12/1
* – WISTAR….-5 – 5TH – 4/1F
H* – YEAGER….-6 – 6TH 12/1
T* – TOP OF THE GLAS….-6
* – SPIRITUAL STAR….-7
§* – EXPRESS HIMSELF….-10 – 3RD 5/1
MASTER OF THE WORLD….-13 – 4TH 9/2
* – EXCELLENT GUEST….-13
T – POLAR FOREST….-25
ART OF WAR….-33
OUTER SPACE….-40
EVENING ATTIRE….-40

I posted up on Tippedtolose:

“The pair leading the Betfair market right now, EXPRESS HIMSELF and MASTER OF THE WORLD, sit 7th & 8th on my ratings, and both look slightly suspect to me.

Having said that, if I have read the draw correctly both have found themselves well boxed and with the ground not an issue for either, even it it were to dry out to genuine good/good to firm.

I’m going to suggest EXPRESS HIMSELF a lay based on my Ratings allied to statistical analysis of this race.

We have seen just nine runnings of this event to it’s tight but, what is apparent is that favourites have a very poor record. Not one of the nine to date has finished better than 3rd, and that was eight years ago. Indeed, for the last seven years the winner has come from outside the front four on the tissue, three of the last five winners 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1, with nothing shorter than 15/2 obliging over that period of time.”

At the time of posting up that text the pair mentioned were heading the tissue and, as suggested, both were very suspect and could be taken on. EXPRESS HIMSELF was trading favourite at just over 4.

It mattered not a jot they drifted, as that gave those reading my work an opportunity make a decision regarding the new favourite, WISTAR. Knowing how poor a race this was, statistically, for favourites, it made that one fair game irrespective of the fact it sat in my top three.

If you would like to join them over there please visit www.tippedtolose.co.uk

ASSUMPTIONS:

Doncaster / Sat 16 May
Updated @ Fri 15 May

Going/Track:

Straight course Good to Firm Round course Good (until it joins the straight) (GoingStick: 8.3 on Friday at 07:30)

Rails: The round course is railed out from 1m 2f until the round meets the straight. This adds about 27 yards to races 1m 2f and over.

Stalls: Straight course Stands side Round course insideWatering: 3mm of water will be applied to the straight this morning. 5mm of water applied to the round mile chute.

Weather:

Thursday Dry overcast strong winds temp high +11 Forecast
Friday Dry temp high +16
Saturday Dry periods of bright sun temp high +13

Newbury / Sat 16 May
Updated @ Fri 15 May

Going/Track:

Good (GoingStick: 6.3mm on Friday at 07:15)

Rails: Rails on the round course between the 8f and 5f will be moved out overnight onto fresh lines.

Stalls: Centre of course straight course Centre of the course round course

Weather:

Last 24hrs 11mm Forecast:
Fri Mainly Dry cloudy, Sunny spells pm max 18
Sat Risk of patchy light rain early hours. Sunny spells later Max 17

Newmarket / Sat 16 May
Updated @ Fri 15 May

Going/Track:

Good (GoingStick: 7.6 on Friday at 10:00)

Rails: The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 12f races by 9 yards.

Stalls: Stand Side Course 12f & 16f Centre Remainder Stand Side

Weather:

5.0mm of rain on Thursday. Dry overnight.
Friday and Saturday; Largely dry and with sunny spells.

Thirsk / Sat 16 May
Updated @ Fri 15 May

Going/Track:

GOOD to FIRM, GOOD in places (GoingStick: 9.0 on Friday at 14:00)

Rails: Rail on bends dolled-out to present fresh ground adding approximately 15m to 7F and 8F distances and 20m to the 1M4F distance.

Stalls: Straight Course & 1m4f

Start: Stands’ Side Round Course: Inside

Weather:

Fair outlook.

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
FINAL FIGURESI have added text to several and will keep looking throughout the morning to see if anything can be added to other Rated races. Please keep checking the website for updates.NEWBURY 4-55

BOOM AND BUST….+16
* – MUNASSER….+9
* – GM HOPKINS….+9
§* – OGBOURNE DOWNS….+9
§ – HAAF A SIXPENCE….+6
* – ENERGIO FLAVIO….+3
§* – PASTORAL PLAYER….-4
* – HIGHLAND COLORI….-4
* – RED AVENGER….-5
* – SPRK PLUG….-11
* – EXTREMITY….-18
APOSTLE….-20
T§ – DREAM WALKER….-23
* – RED REFRACTION….-28
§ – SPA’S DANCER….-29
T* – ROSSO CORSA….-40

NEWMARKET 1-45

* – TOMMY’S SECRET….+9
* – GREAT FUN….-2
T* – IXELLES DIAMOND….-10
§* – FIRM DECISIONS….-11
* – JONNIE SKULL….-12
* – SEE THE STORM….-13
T – BIG STORM COMING….-17
H – KAKATOSI….-31
T§ – BLACK DAVE….-33
§ – CELESTIAL KNIGHT….-36
§ – TRUCANINI….-36
T – TAROOQ….-39
UNTIL MIDNIGHT….-40
§ – BERRAHRI….-40

NEWMARKET 2-15

* – CHIBERTA KING….+9
T* – MAID IN RIO….+8
RESILIENCY….-1
* – NORAB….-5
* – BARBICAN….-18
* – ARC LIGHTER….-30
T* – ARAMIST….-36
CASTILLO DEL DIABLO….-40
ELIDOR….-40

NEWMARKET 5-10

§ – IT MUST BE FAITH….-7
* – TAAJUB….-13
T§* – POWERFUL WIND….-15
* – CORDIAL….-20
§ – ELUSIVITY….-29
TH* – CAN YOU CONGA….-31
ANGEL WAY….-31
COME ON DAVE….-33
GO NANI GO….-36
DOUBLE UP….-39
§ – DIAMOND LADY….-40

THIRSK 3-40

T* – GINGER JACK….+17
* – MAKIN THE RULES….+11
* – MANCHESTAR….+9
§* – EUTROPIUS….+9
§ – LAWYER….+8
* – IN FOCUS….+8
* – LORD FRANKLIN….+5
* – TRINITY STAR….+4
§* – SHADAROBA….+3
§* – POWERFUL PRESENCE….-1
* – CAMEROONEY….-3
§* – JUST PAUL….-5
* – TALENT SCOUT….-10
T – FRUED….-14
§ – MONSIEUR CHEVALIER….-30
ORION’S BOW….-31
WESTWARD HOE…..-31

NOTES: My top rated has copped for a poor draw if I am reading this correctly. With just one win from 17 previous shots at the trip, I think it fair to say, it’s wrong. MAKIN THE RULES is 2-3 on the going as currently described but with no previous evidence the trip is right or that Thirsk will be up his street, caution is advised with that one. MANCHESTER has also yet to race here but like GINGER JACK, the trip is wrong…exactly the same record 1-17. With just one win from seven on this ground I’m looking to EUTROPIUS to be fit and firing on his seasonal debut. Draw right, ground (2-6), spot on, a 25% strike rate over the trip and he’s 1-2 at the track. IN FOCUS is another I expect to run well. Going and trip are right and he’s drawn what I’d call “second best”.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MAKIN THE RULES, EUTROPIUS, IN FOCUS
20/80 – EUTROPIUS
EXOTICS – MAKIN THE RULES, EUTROPIUS, IN FOCUS

THIRSK 4-15

T – BLHADAWA….+16
* – REX IMPERATOR….+12
T§* – STONEFIELD FLYER….+11
§* – STRAITS OF MALACCA….+9
* – BARKSTON ASH….+9
§ – DUKE COSIMO….+9
* – LOVE ISLAND….+9
§* – APRICOT SKY….+9
* – MESHARADAL….+9
§ – POLSKI MAX….-1
* – NEZAR….-1
§ – GRAMERCY….-4
MY NAME IS RIO….-8
* – JACOB’S PILLOW….-12
* – WHOZTHECAT….-14
ECCLESTON….-27

NOTES: My top rated came as a surprise. All winning to date has come on all weather and I’ll swerve. Those playing “old school” might well be e-mailing me after he bolts in. My second highest rated will also be sidestepped. Ground is wrong, trip not ideal and the box he has been given is just missing pall bearers. Both STONEFIELD FLYER and STRAITS OF MALACCA have issues with either going, trip or both and if BARKSTON ASH had been drawn higher I would have been in like Flynn! His lone trip to Thirsk has resulted in a win. He is 10-45 at the trip but again, the trip might not be his best.

Nothing is crying out to be punted in what is a seriously competitive race. Perhaps my top one is the play?

THIRSK 4-50

* – LONG AWAITED….+11
§* – DESERT ACE….+8
* – BALLESTEROS….+8
* – ONLINE ALEXANDER….+7
T§* – FREE ZONE….+4
§* – BARNET FAIR….+1
* – SILVANUS….-3
* – KIMBRELLA….-13
§ – CONFESSIONAL….-13
* – RED BARON….-14
MONSIEUR JOE….-26

NOTES: My top rated is proving his reputation as one very hard to win with extremely accurate this season. Three wins from 31 runs tells a tale. ONLINE ALEXANDER has yet to race here but with three wins from eight races over five furlongs and two wins from five tries at the trip, he’s in my dutch. FREE ZONE was all singing and dancing from the second I started work on this. He is 1-1 at Thirsk, has a 21% strike rate over the trip and it’s just that 1-8 record on the ground causing angst. I will have that pair plus DESERT ACE working for me. He too has yet to race here but 4-11 over five furlongs and 1-3 on the ground, and with that rating, I have to work with him.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – DESERT ACE, ONLINE ALEXANDER, FREE ZONE
20/80 FREE ZONE
EXOTICS – DESERT ACE, ONLINE ALEXANDER, FREE ZONE

THIRSK 5-55

* – CAPTAIN DUNNE….+9
* – EMJAYEM….+8
* – BONDI BEACH BOY….+8
§* – INXILE….+8
§* – MONEY TEAM….+8
* – TYFOS….+8
§* – SINGUER….+7
* – ONE BOY….+7
* – FLASH CITY….+7
§* – IMPERIAL LEGEND….+2
T§* – ROTHESAY CHANCER….-3
MASTER BOND….-32
JACK LUEY….-35
T – FLASHY QUEEN….-40

DONCASTER 6-15

T – ISABELLA BIRD….-9
* – MAVEN….-11
T* – LISAMOUR….-16
ENERGIA FOX….-22
* – SOUND REFLECTION….-27
EMARATIYA ANNA….-31
HEADLINE NEWS….-33
STOSUR….-40
MONALEEN….-40
H – PERSONA GRATA….-40

DONCASTER 8-15

* – GOLD BEAU….+15
§ – SMART SALUTE….+10
§* – VALLARTA….+8
T – GUNG HO JACK….+5
* – DOMINIUM….+4
§ – ROYAL CONNOISSEUR….+3
* – MANATEE BAY….-4
§* – MUNFALLET….-6
§* – MEANDMYSHADOW….-9
* – SECRET MILLIONAIRE….-9
* – ENDERBY SPIRIT….-9
T – PENSAX LAD….-15
T§ – SECRET WITNESS….-20
KENNY THE CAPTAIN….-23
HALF A BILLION….-24
§ – MUKAYNIS….-31
THORNABY NASH….-31
NAGGERS….-34
BOP IT….-40
TWIN POINT….-40

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

 

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