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Today’s Ratings and Advice 14/05/15

Ron RobinsonHad several interesting e-mails yesterday from members asking me why I put so much store in going conditions.

When I am putting my figures together I have 11 criteria for flat racing (eight for NH). At the very top, for both, is my needing to know that the horses we want to be with will act on the going as was described at the moment I put my work together.

If you look back at April’s work, you will note how consistent it was. It was unusual for that month but, it coincided with us having the warmest April on record.

Lokk at the first weekend of May, when we enjoyed a lovely weekend, perfect going descriptions and over a period of two days, we cleared 30 points from the highest rated horse indicated T§*….it’s as simple as that.

The problem we have is, I am working with the going descriptions provided by the BHA 24 hours ahead of the racing we will work with next day.

Certain aspects of my work are than finalised first thing in the morning (5-00am – 6-00am) and the latest going descriptions do not arrive on the BHA website until 6-30am – 7-00am.

I could sit here and construct my data again based on those new figures, should there be a change but, that would effectively mean my work going out around noon at the earliest when we have the amount of racing as we saw yesterday.

Those of you requiring my work before you go to work would not appreciate that and, to be honest, on a daily basis, it would be impossible for me to do this because I would never get anything else done.

What I would much prefer to do….and this also applies to the new service over at tippedtolose, is advise you to check for yourself that the going remains as described, at the time I prepped my work.

Quite simply, if a horse cannot handle the ground it races on, it will not matter a jot how highly it rates on my numbers.

A perfect example of this was seen recently when I had one I was very tempted to post up as a bet of the day, It rated +16, was top rated, running for the in form stable of David O’Meara, had everything “right” but, in the 24 hours that elapsed between prepping and the race going off, the ground turned base over apex and that horse came home plum last….my second highest rated just ahead of him.

We have 365 days in a year and in that time we’ll have many opportunities to make our profit and if some weeks we have to wait, then we wait. The ground is now coming right again after that wet spell and unless they see heavy rain today or, the temperatures mirror Barbados, I’m happy enough to get involved today.

That mini-profile of the Clipper yesterday was spot on, wasn’t it?

You wanted a horse aged five or older, a single figure draw, trading at double figure odds

The 40/1 winner was aged 5, drawn 7….the third placed horse aged 6, drawn 2 and priced 18/1 and (it had to happen, didn’t it!!), the 4th placed horse was the one I suggested might be an e.w. play, drawn 4 and went off 25/1….beaten two heads and a neck.

TODAY

Three meetings but just four rated races. Salisbury looks a proving ground for 3-y-o’s today and Newmarket offers up just a couple of low grade handicaps and it’s a quite one for us.

I will send out my figures for that evening meeting a little later, with other bits and pieces of information I believe you may be interested in.

TIPPED TO LOSE

Yesterday just two lay advices provided and both duly lost, NADDIRR a confident enough lay based very much on that mini-profile and not on ratings. The other, Remember Rocky, came home in third placed and I’m very happy with the way things are going over there.

The website is slowly evolving and I’m sure those that have subscribed are happy with things right now.

If you would like to join them please visit www.tippedtolose.co.uk

AN EVENING WITH AP MCCOY

Fancy an evening in the company of Tony McCoy? Just click on the picture to obtain more details:

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Salisbury / Thu 14 May
    Updated @ Wed 13 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Firm (GoingStick: 9.0 on Wednesday at 15:45)

    Stalls: 5F, 6F, 7F – Far side 1M2F – Inside

  • Weather

    25.5mm rain last week. Predominately dry last few days. The rain forecasted for raceday is currently due to arrive around 8am. It is expected to be heaviest during the morning and about 10mm is predicted before 1pm. It will remain overcast during the afternoon with the possibility of further rain at times.

  • York / Thu 14 May
    Updated @ Thu 14 May

    Going/Track

    Good (GoingStick: 6.6 overall average; in home straight: farside – 6.4; centre – 6.5 standside – 6.4. on Thursday at 06:00)

    Rails: Racing on traditional inside rail, no adjustment to race distances.

    Stalls: 5f, 6f and 7f – farside rail; 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.

  • Weather

    Rainfall of 16mm on Friday 8 May. Dry since. Thursday – dry, bright and fresh. Met Office forecast – dry, cool and mostly cloudy with occasional sunny intervals Thursday. Friday – dry, sunny intervals and 15 degrees.

  • Newmarket / Thu 14 May
    Updated @ Wed 13 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Firm (GoingStick: 8.8 on Wednesday at 15:00)

    Rails: The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 12f races by 9 yards.

    Stalls: Stand Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Far Side

  • Weather

    1.5mm of rain on Tuesday. Wednesday; Dry and with sunny spells. Thursday; Cooler and rain from midday on current timings 8-9mm. Friday and Saturday; Largely dry.

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURESYORK 2-10

§* – ALGAR LAD….+9
T§* – JUDGE ‘N JURY….+8
* – MONSIEUR JOE….+8
§* – OUT DO….+8
* – LEXINGTON ABBEY….+7
* – SEE THE SUN….+6
* – DEMORA….+2
* – WILLBEME….+1
* – PERFECT PASTURE….+1
§* – PEARL ACCLAIM….-3
§ – BURNING THREAD….-7
§* – RED BARON….-15
* – TANGERINE TREES….-17
T* – DOCTOR PARKES….-20
DESERT LAW….-20
ZAC BROWN….-24
T* – LADWEB….-25

NOTES: Will my top rated go again today after winning so well yesterday? Until I know whether he runs or not I’m going to wait but I’d prefer the chances of the yards other one, OUT DO, regardless.

I’m much less keen on this race than I am the next!

YORK 3-45

T§* – HOMAGE….+15
T* – ABSEIL….+11
* – CAPPO ROSSO….+9
* – HIT THE JACKPOT….+8
* – FORT BASTION….+8
* – PRINCE OF JOHANNE….-2
§* – GABRIAL….-3
§ – LOVING SPIRIT….-8
T – ASCRIPTION….-13
OFF ART….-19
* – YOURARTISONFIRE….-20
T§* – CHOOKIE ROYALE….-22
§ – CORDITE….-24
ALFRED HUTCHINSON….-25
T§ – MERRY ME….-27
T* – NAKUTI….-27
BALDUCCI….-33
YOU’RE FIRED….-39

NOTES: This race has been the plan for my top rated for a fair old while now. Everything is absolutely spot on for this horse….won on his only other visit to York, is 2-3 at the trip and 2-3 on the genuine good ground. If his trainer has him fit and firing then he’s going to take a heck of a lot of beating here.

ABSEIL is an enigma. Very highly rated at home he has proven to be a morning glory so far but, he’s rating highly based on all criteria and first time out might be the time to be with him.

MY PLAY:

I am going to have a decent 20/80 my top rated work with my top three for dutching and exotics but it really is all about my top rated horse.

NEWMARKET EVENING FIGURES TO FOLLOW

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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