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Today’s Ratings and Advice 13/05/15

Ron RobinsonI have now added two rated races from Bath this evening and you will find all comments/figures below.

I genuinely want to start adding text again to the rated races but I still feel the ground will be drying out and rendering my work suspect so, I’m again going to abstain myself.

My apologies this morning for not being 100% clear on how I would be working and for also not replacing the text in the “TODAY” column below. The text in there did apply to yesterday!

This morning I have been busy putting together a proposal that may…or may not…see us gain a major sponsor and, if that were to happen, I could progress things on all fronts here.

Also took a phone call from my GP that has put a spring in my step….delighted to say I’m now off all tablets bar one….down from 18 per day to just three and with those steroids now off my back, I can set about shedding the near four stone they have put on me.

Soon be back in the budgie smugglers!!

TODAY

In addition to the rated races I have been looking at the Clipper at 3-15pm….York.

Not for rating but interesting from a profiling point of view.

You want a five year old…or older on side. Nine of the last 10 winners of that were in that age bracket.

Thinking middle to low drawn will do best if the ground remains genuinely good.

Seven of the last 10 winners went off a double figure price. That is because this is still only May and even good horses are still striving for full fitness.

Only one of the last 10 favourites has named to win this.

Taking all those factors into account I’d suggest Casper Netscher might be an e.w. bet given he’s got plenty of stats supporting him but in all honesty, I’ll enjoy watching it without a play.

TIPPED TO LOSE

I am in the process of putting together something for the membership of the new service to read later this afternoon. You will, of course, be able to post comments and I would very much appreciated your doing so as I will be asking you for your opinions on certain things.

Yesterday I posted this up on the www.tippedtlose.co.uk website:

BEVERLEY 3-25

This will show you something of the dilemma we have. I believe the morning favourite, WINDFORPOWER, has a cracking good chance and so, we’ll leave that one be but, POINT NORTH, trading @ 5 and 2nd favourite as I type, looks vulnerable if my numbers are right….just.

He does though have a prime draw to work with and is happy on the going as was described, at the point of prepping my work yesterday.

I have checked the new going description and it is now good to soft all over…and drying. This will not suit him and I expect him to start drifting now, because of that.

He has two turf wins to date, both on soft and, both over further than the five furlongs (8.5 and 6), he faces this afternoon. His profile strongly suggests he is much happier on all weather….nearly half of his all weather wins have resulted in a win or place. He has just two wins from 16 attempts on turf.

On genuine good to soft this horse is 0-5, over five furlongs he is 0-3 and, he has never been spotted racing at Beverley before.

Form figures on good to soft are: 6, 11, 11, 13, 6,

Form figures over five furlongs are: 6, 7, 6

I am quite sure John Balding would have liked to have got Danny Tudhope for today as his form figures when riding this horse are: 9, 7, 3, 1, 10, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2 and it’s clear that as Danny has got to know the horse, the horse has proven consistent but, it should be noted that eight of those 10 runs have come at Wolverhampton.

As well drawn as he is in stall 1….prime….he is going to need to defy a lot of statistical evidence that suggests this is not his day.

Over five furlongs on quickening ground, I would take him on.

RESULT: Unfortunately this race fell apart with 25% of the field taken out and the suggested lay coming right into my top five rated horses and no longer a lay proposition….he then went and won!

BEVERLEY 3-55

The tissue favourite is again highly rated on my numbers and I would be a player as opposed to a layer.

VENTURA QUEST sits second favourite at around 7.4 but he has not won since he was a juvenile and both those wins were over shorter.

Richard Fahey has been trying all manner of trips with this one since those early days and has not been able to come up with an answer. All runs bar one, since 18/04/14, have come over further and the last nine races he has participated in have been over 10 furlongs of more. Consistency is a strong point, seven of his 15 runs on turf resulting in a win or place.

The going is spot on, even it it dries out to good and, he has that lovely one box to race from. He tends to sit on the pace and that’s no bad thing here.

Both of his wins to date have also come in smaller fields….8 and 7 runners respectively…and when he races in double figure fields his form figures are: 3, 9, 6, 5, 13, 3, 3, 18 and he blew out big time on the only other occasion he raced here, finishing 5th of seven over 10 furlongs, on good to firm ground.

Fahey’s record of just seven winners from 59 runners aged 4+ here, over the last five seasons, is not overly impressive either.

With horses drawn just wider of him that thrive at Beverley (and with me of a mind middle drawn horse look sure to have this much better run to suit), he looks a very poor second favourite on paper.

BORDER BANDIT, who is 2-3 here, is 6-16 over the trip and is one who will be happy to read that the ground is drying out (2-7 on good to soft), currently trades 2.4 points bigger and looks a far more viable betting proposition.

So, unless something has clicked at home and encouraged Fahey to drop him back in trip, I would suggest he’s vulnerable this afternoon.

RESULT: The original tissue favourite was pulled out and as the new favourite, Venture Quest, struggled into fourth, the commentator was heard to say “looking for all the world like he needs 10….which of course they have tried many times”. As suggested, a horse without a trip who rated 10th of the 10 runners on my figures.

AN EVENING WITH AP MCCOY

Fancy an evening in the company of Tony McCoy? Just click on the picture to obtain more details:

20 TO FOLLOW

My apologies for those looking to find these on the website. Good intentions are all well and good but until I have 28 hours in a day it’s all very much a juggling act. I will commence doing this today.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Bath / Wed 13 May
    Updated @ Tue 12 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Firm (GoingStick: 8.9 on Monday at 07:30)

    Rails: Inner rail is dolled out 24yds around the bottom bend and between the 4f & 3f marker.

    Stalls: 1m2f, 1m3f, 1m – Inside 5f & 2m1f – Centre

  • Weather

    37mm in the last week. 1mm rain overnight Forecast: Outlook looks generally dry from up until raceday. Some sunny spells Max temps 18C

  • Newcastle / Wed 13 May
    Updated @ Tue 12 May

    Going/Track

    Straight: SOFT, Good to Soft in pls Round: SOFT (GoingStick: 5.1 on Tuesday at 15:30)

    Stalls: Straight course: Centre 1m2f: Inside

  • Weather

    36mm since last race day. Dry since Mon am. Odd light shower this am but largely dry until after racing. Temps between 8-16c with a moderate Westerly wind. Likely to improve a little further.

  • York / Wed 13 May
    Updated @ Tue 12 May

    Going/Track

    Good (GoingStick: 6.4overall average; in home straight: farside – 6.3; centre – 6.3 standside – 6.2. on Tuesday at 08:45)

    Rails: Racing on Wednesday on traditional inside rail, no adjustment to race distances.

    Stalls: 5f, 6f and 7f – farside rail; 1m4f – centre; remainder – inside rail.

  • Weather

    Rainfall of 16mm on Friday 8 May. Dry since. Tuesday afternoon: dry, bright and breezy. Met office forecast: We are now forecast to be predominantly dry, cloudy and 14 degrees during the three days of racing with some breaks in the cloud on Wednesday and Friday. Slightly cooler and cloudier on Thursday – 11 degrees.

  • Other

    New for 2015: new relocated weighing room adjacent to pre parade and parade ring. Rebuilt owners entrance building (in same location). Complimentary lunch for owners and trainers with runners – please see entries letter or website for details.

ICONS
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURESYORK 2-10

SATELLITE….+10
T* – FIRST FLIGHT….+8
§* – SPIRIT OF LAW….+4
§* – MASTER OF FINANCE….+4
T – EDMAAJ….+4
§* – SILVERY MOON….+1
T* – WHAT ABOUT CARLO….+1
CHANCERY….-2
§ – DONNY ROVER….-4
T* – VOICE OF A LEADER….-7
T§ – MAHSOOB….-10
§ – TRES CORONAS….-16
INDY….-22
§ – SIR JACK LAYDEN….-24
TY GWR….-26
NONCHALENT….-31
CACTUS VALLEY….-38
SNOWMANE….-39
T§ – EXAMINER….-40
T – FIELD OF FAME….-40

YORK 2-40

T§* – BADDILINI….+13
§* – HOOF IT….+11
* – ARCTIC FEELING….+10
T§* – BALMONT MAST….+9
§* – BLAINE….+9
* – BARRACUDA BOY….+9
* – OUT DO….+9
* – MEHDI….+7
* – MASS RALLY….+5
* – KICKBOXER….+2
§* – BOY IN THE BAR….+1
* – TATLISU….+1
§* – KIMBRELLA….-2
BOGART….-2
* – ALGAR LAD….-6
* – ANOTHER WISE KID….-7
* – PIPERS NOTE….-10
T§* – POLYBIUS….-11
* – FAST SHOT….-14
JAMAICAN BOLT….-23

YORK 5-20

§* – ITLAAQ….+13
* – POETIC VERSE….+12
T* – ALL TALK N NO DO….+10
T – OSARUVEETIL….+9
* – GABRIAL THE DUKE….+7
§* – ELTHEEB….+2
§* – AMBLESIDE….-1
T§* – PRESSURE POINT….-4
§* – LIBRAN….-8
T* – NANTON….-10
PRIMOGENITURE….-10
* – ONLY ORSENFOOLSIES….-11
§* – BOGARDUS….-14
T* – SMOKY HILL….-14
§ – SEAMOR….-17
JEFFERSON CITY….-24
INNOCENT TOUCH….-25
CARTHAGE….-30
RIBBLEHEAD….-34
SPIFER….-40

NEWCASTLE 3-25

CALL OF DUTY….+9
T – RIOJA DAY….+9
* – STRADATER….+6
T* – IRONDALE EXPRESS….-2
* – AD VITAM….-7
RASSELAS….-7
IM DAPPER TOO….-15
DANDARELL….-18
T – SAM SPADE….-19
BAJAN REBEL….-21
TH – PRINCE ART….-32
MIGUELA MCGUIRE….-33
YARD OF ALE….-40
ELLUSIVANCE….-40
WOLF HEART….-40

NEWCASTLE 4-25

* – GALA CASINO STAR….-16
* – SOLID JUSTICE….-19
BEAUMONT’S PARTY….-24
LAZARUS BELL….-27
WARLU WAY….-40
LIGHT OF ASIA….-40
* – REMEMBER ROCKY….-40
T – RONALD GEE….-40
HALJAFERIA….-40

NEWCASTLE 5-25

BLUE JACKET….-3
§ – LILIARGH….-8
SHEARIAN….-12
JIMMY CRACKLE….-25
GLASGON….-26
T§ – BONJOUR STEVE….-27
T – ALPHA TAURI….-27
HELLBENDER….-29
H§ – TED LARKIN….-32
T – NO REFUND….-35
MY GIRL JO….-36
§ – CASH IS KING….-40

NEWCASTLE 6-00

* – IT’S ALL A GAME….-5
§ – GAELIC WIZARD….-10
§ – SHESNOTFORTURNING….-18
ADVANCE….-22
T – STUN GUN….-24
MOON ARC….-27
T – SAIRAAM….-28
H§ – DEBT FREE DAME….-29
KEENE’S POINTE….-32
§ – CROSSLEY….-38
H§ – THE FULWELL END….-39
T – ZARIA….-40
TH – BEAU SPARKLE….-40

BATH 5-45

T* – SILVER ALLIANCE….+10
* – SECULAR SOCIETY….+9
* – IFAN….+/-0
* – SPICEUPYOURLIFE….-5
H* – SILVER DIXIE….-11
* – THE ALAMO….-18
ELITE FORCE….-29
SEQUESTER….-31
ZAMBEASY….-34

BATH 6-15

TH* – HONEYMOON EXPRESS….+9
CASTORIENTA….-3
* – EDGED OUT….-10
WHITECREST….-11
* – GLASTONBERRY….-15
* – ANGEL FLORES….-15
LEAD A MERRY DANCE….-15
LUCKY DI….-26

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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