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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/05/15

Ron RobinsonIf you want to see for yourself exactly why I hate Windsor, watch the ride Fredrick Tylicki gave my OF INTEREST selection, Stocking, in the 5-05 there.

The Racing Post race watcher says, “held up in rear. Going well enough when repeatedly stuck in behind rivals from two furlongs out. No chance to be involved”.

The plain fact is, our jockey changed his mind more times than Karen in a shoe shop. He went left, came back right, seemed to go for a gap, then opted to go further right, towards the rail. It’s the track that does it. Horses seem to go all over the place once they turn in and it’s just quite simply the most frustrating of places.

Hate the place.

The Rated races found two top rated winners on a day, ECHO OF LIGHTNING 11/2 and MYTHICAL MADNESS 7/2, the OF INTEREST section provided a “straight win” suggestion (first of the season), when MERRITT ISLAND got up @ 5/2.

I was happy with how the figures performed on what was a poor days racing for a Bank Holiday.

TIPPED TO LOSE

I confess to being a little nervous yesterday. I launched my new service, Tipped To Lose and you always conscious you need to get such a thing off to a flying start. It certainly concentrates the mind!

I did nothing more than I usually do once my figures have gone out and applied the same criteria to finding those bad favourites and this is what went up on day 1 of www.tippedtolose.co.uk

“My first suggested lay is:
EMILY DAVISON (Bath 1-55) – 6TH 2/1 FAVOURITE
Likely to go off favourite she’s consistent in this grade but, her winning form on turf to date has come on genuine good ground and it will be almost like a road here this afternoon. She has never raced on firm but her form figures on good to firm are:
3, 3, 7, 3, 6, 2
All of her winning form to date has come under a lady jockey. Today she will be ridden by Oisin Murphy and whilst many will see that as a big positive, I’m not so sure. He finds riding winners here tough, just one to date from 27 rides.
Her three draw might seem a bonus for a horse that likes to run from the front and in a race as bad as this it might well be those in behind simply fail because they are poor but, traditionally, those drawn middle to high have races set up for them here by virtue of those up front, from a low draw, going to hard early.
It could be very tight given the nature of the race but I feel this horse simply has more minuses than pluses.
On a scale of 1-10, 10 being a Lay Of The Day, I’d say this is a four.
My other lay suggestion today is:
WHERE’S TIGER (Beverley 2-10) – 6TH 2/1 FAVOURITE
Like I say, I had hoped for more from this place this afternoon and this is one of those rare occasions I will take one on that sits inside my top six rated horses.
Another that is very consistent but one win from 15 runs to date suggests he likes to see one in front of him. That sole win to date came on good to soft here when he bolted up in a Class 5 over course and distance so, that last bit is a plus.
Since stepped up to 10 furlongs his form figures at that trip are:
2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3 so, you know he’s in his element at the distance this race is being run today. Another plus.
He’s in my top six for a reason!
However, he’s 0-6 on going this quick and in a race where six of the eight runners have winning form on it, you have to think the odds are therefore against him.
He is just 1-6 at this trip, despite those seemingly impressive place runs at 10 furlongs. I sense, on quicker ground, he needs 12 furlongs but, the twice they have tried him over that trip they’ve sent him to Pontefract, and 12 furlongs there is like 14 anywhere else.
They have put up a decent 5lb claimer today and I can easily see him placing.
I rate this a four also.”

Off to a flyer, pressure off, let’s see if we can keep it going today.

TODAY

Brighton….racing that is put on for those down there caravanning. I do find it hard to get excited about punting horses racing there but of the six rated races worked on, four of them come from that track.

We have a brace of races from the evening meeting at Catterick 

AN EVENING WITH AP MCCOY

Fancy an evening in the company of Tony McCoy? Just click on the picture to obtain more details:

20 TO FOLLOW

I got a bit bogged down yesterday and will have this finalised by Wednesday. I have a couple of appointments away from my office today and again Thursday so, Wednesday will be the day this is sorted.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Catterick Bridge / Tue 05 May
    Updated @ Mon 04 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Soft (GoingStick: 8.3 on Monday at 08:00)

    Rails: Bend into home straight moved out 2yds increasing distances of races 6f to 1m 6f by 6yds and 2m race by 12yds

    Stalls: All races – Inside

  • Weather

    19mm rain last 24 hours Forecast – Dry and sunny Monday. Rain moving in early Tuesday clearing by early afternoon(8-10mm). Feeling milder

  • Brighton / Tue 05 May
    Updated @ Mon 04 May

          Going/Track

          Good to Firm, Good in places (GoingStick: 7.8 on Monday at 07:15)

          Rails: Rail moved out 2.5 yards onto fresh ground adding 9 yards to distances.

         Stalls: 1m2f and 1m4f Outside, Rest Centre.

         Weather

         10mm in total yesterday. Cleared to sunny spells and a breeze yesterday afternoon. Forecast; A dry day with sunny spells and a breeze today. Heavy rain this evening into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday sunny spells and risk of a shower.

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BRIGHTON 3-20

* – BOUNTYBEAMADAM….+10
* – SARANGOO….+9
OCEAN LEGEND….-4
FREDDY WITH A Y….-5
* – MISTER MUSICMASTER….-7
VEERAYA….-26

BRIGHTON 3-50

* – BAILEYS EN PREMIER….+24
* – PICK A LITTLE….+14
T – FLIPPING….+9
* – HARRY BOSCH….-1
BLOODSWEATANDTEARS….-7
ADMIRABLE ART….-9
TRADER JACK….-21
SIXTIES LOVE….-27
T – GILMER….-40
BISON GRASS….-40

BRIGHTON 4-20

* – BOONGA ROOGETA….+2
LADY MARL….-5
CALM ATTITUDE….-12
* – SPECIAL MISS….-17
PUZZLE TIME….-18
ELBERETH….-19
TEARS OF THE SUN….-23
STOSUR….-27

BRIGHTON 4-50

* – EXTRASOLAR….+17
* – GINZAN….+9
* – ISEEMIST….+3
* – DREAMS OF GLORY….+1
* – FLYING BEAR….-1
ROYAL WARRIOR….-13
PANDAR….-29

CATTERICK 7-30

T* – CONRY….+19
§* – POWERFUL PRESENCE….+12
* – TRUE PLEASURE….+12
§* – DR RED EYE….+12
BEST TRIP….+12
§ – DAYLIGHT….+8
* – OLD MAN CLEGG….+8
§ – FINN CLASS….+8
* – SOLAR SPIRIT….+4
FAVOURITE TREAT….-1
PICENO….-4
§T – STONEFIELD FLYER….-13
LOCKEDOUTOFHEAVEN….-25

NOTES: Clearly the best race of the day….most competitive, anyway!

POWERFUL PRESENCE is Danny Tudhope’s only ride here tonight and from a good draw, you’d be expecting a big run from this one. He has a 43% strike rate (3-7), at the track, this is his trip….7-31 at it but…big but, too….10 previous attempts at winning on good to soft have resulted in just one win. With three wins over course and distance a big +, confidence would be tempered by the fact all three were gained on good to firm. He has not won now for close on two years and I think he’ll do well to win, a place at best most likely.

TRUE PLEASURE has Catterick stats to die for….67% strike rate here….a 33% strike rate at the trip and….the horse is 2-2 on good to soft. He is drawn what I consider ‘second best” but top end of middle is a concern at this course, which is just shy of a hare from being a greyhound track!

The track will suit DR RED EYE’s style of running, in that he blasts out of the traps and it’s a “catch me if you can” job for the rest. His last win (July 2014), came on good to firm at Epsom but prior to that all his winning form came on slower or all weather surfaces. From the 3 box, he has to be a player tonight.

CONRY comes alive in May. His last two wins on turf came on May 6th and 24th last year and I think it fair to say this one loves Yorkshire air. Six of this horses seven wins on grass have come here and the ground doesn’t seem to matter a jot. If he had been drawn 1-5 I would have been in like Flynn and all over it like a bad rash. Is “7” so bad? I think so. He was drawn 3 and 1 when he won here last term and was able to get the rail. Being a hold up horse he;ll need to do that again and that box causes me an issue.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – CONRY, POWERFUL PRESENCE, DR RED EYE
20/80 – DR RED EYE
EXOTICS – CONRY, POWERFUL PRESENCE, DR RED EYE

CATTERICK 8-30

* – ORIENT CLASS….+3
THREES GRAND….-8
* – RUSTY ROCKET….-8
* – LADY POPPY….-9
WINDFORPOWER….-31
ELAND ALLY….-40

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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