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Today’s Ratings and Advice 04/05/15

Ron RobinsonAll throughout April I was thinking, “this is too good to be true”.

The figures for the month were plain silly and made me look even sillier for not betting during those 30 days. I know, from history, that April and October are minefields for punters and it’s prudent to simply watch, wait and then get stuck in from May 1st onwards.

I started my own betting on Saturday and in all the time I have been doing what I do, I have never had a start like it.

The trio of icons I have been advising you of all throughout April….T§*….have kicked off in blistering fashion. I myself made a conscious decision to play the highest rated of them, when we have races in which several appear. When they race at Hamilton and Musselburgh we will find this happening.

This meant I played five horses having those icons and Gary very kindly produced stats for the weekend just gone:

“Highest rated with T*§ 3/5 (all + rating) +30.16pts after 5% deduction”

Can that be kept up? I very much doubt it. if I can make you 15 points profit every day I imagine the layers will hire The Jackal and I’ll be hit before midsummer!

I’ll kid you not though, I was giving it large after this one:

NEWMARKET 3-00

§* – ACCESSION….+17 – 4TH 25/1
T* – SUPPLICANT….+10
T§* – EASTERN IMPACT….+9 – WON 20/1 > 16/1
T* – BLAINE….+9
* – ZANETTO….+8 – 3RD 11/1
§* – HUNTSMANS CLOSE….+8 – 2ND 10/1
* – SECRETINTHE PARK….+4
* – DINKUM DIAMOND….-8
§* – SEEKING MAGIC….-8
* – SWISS CROSS….-9
* – BOOMERANG BOB….-15
T* – FREE CODE….-20
* – GO FAR….-25
* – SHORE STEP….-25
* – BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS….-25
§ – HILLBILLY BOY….-26
FOXTROT ROMEO….-30
GAMESOME….-33
§ – RUWIAYAN….-35
SUZI’S CONNOISSUER….-36
BADDILINI….-40
§ – RUN WITH PRIDE….-40
§ – DON’T HAVE IT THEN….-40

NOTES: As tight as a mallards backside. Fahey again has one securing all three icons and I expect EASTERN IMPACT to run a solid race. His personal stats give cause for optimism….1-2 at Newmarket, 2-6 at the trip and a 40% strike rate on the current going. He is in my dutch and will be my 20/80.

My top rated has previous winning form here (1-3), has a 20% strike rate at the trip but that one win from six attempts at winning on this ground concerns me.

HUNTSMANS CLOSE will be the third in my dutch. Again the ground is an issue, just one win from eight on it and he;s never visited Newmarket before. Three wins from 16 shots at the trip also has me rubbing my chin but, he’s got a decent draw to work with if I have read this correctly.

Of the rest ZANETTO is very much worth keeping an eye on. Track, trip and ground are right and he’ll be a player if fit enough on debut. In his 3-y-o season his early form was very good and it will be down to Balding’S skill at getting one handicapped again with this one.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – ACCESSION, EASTERN IMPACT, HUNTSMANS CLOSE
20/80 – EASTERN IMPACT – WON 20/1 > 16/1
EXOTICS – ACCESSION, EASTERN IMPACT, HUNTSMANS CLOSE

I love trying to read a race once the figures are in place and I’d suggest this will be as good as it get’s over the next five months. I would expect a few more days when that all comes together like that, again.

If you had utilised the three highlighted in the Notes added to that race and permed them for tricast/trifecta purposes, you would have trousered a tricast paying £1899.09 and a trifecta that coughed up £2718.90

For me though it was the sheer pleasure in having read it right, that had me frightening the cats to death.

Two winners from three OF INTEREST selections – FUN MAC 6/1 > 5/1 and ARAMIST 9/2 – added more profit to that section over the two days of the weekend, too.

Simply put, it’s been surreal.

TODAY

For a Bank Holiday Monday I had expected more, to be honest. Bath is simply Bath and i’ll not get overly involved there.

I love Beverley because of the draw bias which makes winner finding as easy as shelling peas but, today, small fields means the draw bias is nullified and it’s a case of hoping the numbers prove accurate….plus the clues I have spotted in my notes.

Windsor….lovely Windsor. If a witchdoctor could make effigy’s of racecourses for the purposes of causing it pain, I’d be sticking needles in all day. Hate the place. One though does need playing., for the reasons outlined in my notes. It will now get stuffed out of sight…because it’s Windsor.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Bath / Mon 04 May
    Updated @ Mon 04 May

    Going/Track

    FIRM,Good to Firm in Places

    Rails: Inner rail is dolled out 24yds around the bottom bend and between the 4f & 3f marker.

    Stalls: 1m2f, 1m3f, 1m – Inside 5f & 2m1f – Centre

  • Weather

    6mm 25th April 2mm Tuesday eve 8mm Saturday night 4mm overnight Forecast: Monday: Isolated showers with sunny spells Max temps 12/13C

  • Windsor / Mon 04 May
    Updated @ Mon 04 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Firm. (GoingStick: 9.0 on Monday at 07:00)

    Rails: Inner of straight dolled out 11yds at 6f and 5yds at the winning line. Top bend dolled out 10yds from normal inner configuration, adding 42yds to race distances of 1m+

    Stalls: 1m 2f abt 7yds & 1m 3f abt 135yds:- centre. Remainder:- inside.

  • Weather

    3mm rainfall Wednesday. 3.6mm rainfall yesterday, dry since midday yesterday. Monday:- dry with sunny intervals 17c.

  • Beverley / Mon 04 May
    Updated @ Mon 04 May

    Going/Track

    Good (GoingStick: 7.6 on Monday at 06:30)

    Rails: Inside rail in the 5F chute out 1.5m, same as previous meeting. No change to race distances

    Stalls: Inside (all races)

  • Weather

    12mm rainfall on Sunday Dry Overnight Monday – sunny spells, 14C

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

BATH 1-55

THE WEE CHIEF….+17
CATALINA’S DIAMOND….+15
* – SPRAY TAN….+8
* – DOUNEEDAHAND….+8
* – TWO TURTLE DOVES….+5
* – TRIPLE DREAM….-2
LUCKY CLOVER….-15
EMILY DAVIDSON….-26
T – SEE VERMONT….-40

BATH 4-15

* – FOR SHIA AND LULA….+9
APPROACHING….+8
BREAKHEART….+4
LADY BAYSIDE….-7
MISTER MUSICMASTER….-14
SCOTTISH GLEN….-26
SHARP SWORD….-26
MY SON MAX….-40

BEVERLEY 2-10

* – TOTO SKYLLACHY….+9
* – MAYBEME….+8
* – NEXT STOP….+4
* – BLING KING….-3
* – SAN CASSIANO….-5
WHERE’S TIGER….-11
* – LIBRAN….-12
* – DUKE OF YORKSHIRE….-20

NOTES: My top rated thrives here and is currently 4-9 at the track so, being an O’Meara trained horse he’ll not be far away…they rarely are. However, 0-4 over 10 (it’s as near as not!) furlongs tells me this is not his day and we’ll see better over a mile very soon.

MAYBEME….29% strike rate at Beverley, 3-11 when racing on this kind of ground and a better than 25% strike rate when racing over this trip, all gives me great cause for optimism. First time out form is iffy though but, he did win on debut the season before last and I’m liking they’ve booked Andrew Elliot, who has been on top for four of the horses last five wins.

NEXT STOP is 1-2 here, 33% strike rate at the trip but, 0-3 on today’s ground. In my dutch because of ratings alone.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – TOT SKYLLACHY, MAYBEME, NEXT STOP
20/80 – MAYBEME
EXOTICS – TOT SKYLLACHY, MAYBEME, NEXT STOP

BEVERLEY 2-45

DARK OCEAN….+10
* – JACBEQUICK….+8
* – BORDER BANDIT….+2
ROUSAYAN….-6
* – NAOISE….-6
* – ALTHAROOS….-10
PARK PLACE….-16
REGGIE BOND….-21
SWIFTLY DONE….-24
ICE SLICE….-35

BEVERLEY 3-20

* – ECHO OF LIGHTNING….+4
* – RELIGHT MY FIRE….-2
* – EENY MAC….-9
* – MYSTERIAL….-9
* – SHAMAHEART….-13
SAKHALIN STAR….-23
STUN GUN….-33
H – MUNJALLY….-38
LYNNGALE….-38
SONG OF NORWAY….-38

WINDSOR 1-40

* – MERITOCRACY….+9
§* – LINKS DRIVE LADY….+9
§* – ELEUSIS….+5
MIA SAN TRIPLE….+/-0
* – ROYAL BRAVE….-5
* – TAMAYUZ STAR….-10
§ – AGERZAM….-10
§ – DILGURA….-14
§ – MAJOR KRISPIES….-16

NOTES: I will be more than happy to work with rated horses 2 & 3 here. As you know, I hate Windsor….with a passion. It’s almost impossible to read, save for the fact you can play Hannon juveniles blind.

Here though we have a horse sitting second best on my numbers that has a decent draw (I hope….), is 2-9 on the ground, has a 22% strike rate at the distance and loves Windsor….3-7 here (43% wins to runs ratio).

Last season Dean Ivory sent the mare here off the back of a pipe-opener under Robert Winston (she finished 15th of 16 runners) and had booked William Buick to ride. This season he sent her to Doncaster and Danny Tudhope rode her to finish 21st of 21.

Today he has booked William Buick to ride her again, at Windsor, on her second outing of the season and if patterns in racing mean anything, this looks to have been “planned”.

Of course, it might not pan out as they’d like…it’s Windsor….so I will take out insurance.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – LINKS DRIVE LADY, ELEUSIS
20/80 – LINKS DRIVE LADY
EXOTICS – LINKS DRIVE LADY, ELEUSIS

If I’m tempted in by tricasts/trifectas, then my top one gets the nod.

WINDSOR 2-15

KINGLAMI….+16
DINNERATMIDNIGHT….+12
* – BUSHCRAFT….+9
* – SOARING SPIRITS….-9
QUIET WARRIOR….-10
* – SLIP SLIDING AWAY….-14
* – LIGHT FROM MARS….-23
* – SYRIAN PEARL….-25
SMIDGEN….-28

NOTES: My top rated was beaten a neck by my 20/80 selection in that race above last season but as much as he loves this gaff – form figures of 3, 1, 2, 1 since his juvenile days were behind him – his form on good to firm suggests he wants it a tad slower.

BUSHCRAFT is very interesting, having achieved a decent + figure having just four runs on the board but he has not been sighted since August 2013 and that’s a long time off. However, Ed Walker has made sure he got his man when employing George Baker to ride this afternoon. George rode this horse on three of those four runs, won twice and was beaten a nose in a Class 3 at Chester.

It is not a race that is tickling my fancy with regards a play.

WINDSOR 4-00

* – MYTHICAL MADNESS….+9
* – BALMORAL CASTLE….+9
* – GIANTSTEPSAHEAD….-9
HIGHLAND DUKE….-17
* – TERCEL….-18
RED WARRIOR….-30
VAINGLORY….-30
FRANCO’S SECRET….-40
HEDGE END….-40

WINDSOR 4-35

CAPE VICTORIA….+11
* – MEETINGS MAN….-11
CURBYOURENTHUSIASM….-18
OASIS FANTASY….-29
ROYAL FLAG….-30
RYEOLLIEAN….-40
MICRAS….-40

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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