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Today’s Ratings and Advice 03/05/15

Ron RobinsonI confess, I’m always a bit “trepidatious” on day one of the new “punting” season. I suppose that’s a good thing because the second I’m not, it’s probably time to pack up.

All I can say is, what a stunning day of punting it turned out to be.

It is Sunday and so I’m going to look back at how things actually went 24 hours past….I like doing that of a Sunday.

The OF INTEREST selections. I was half tempted to ignore that section, with it being day one but, I am mighty glad I didn’t because I played one that paid 18 on Betfair, that only came home in second place.

These were the four posted up:

FOOLAAD – 2ND 50/1 > 40/1
(Doncaster 7-45) – 20/80
SING SOMETHING – 3RD 3/1
(Thirsk 2-10) – 20/80
YORKINDRED SPIRIT – UP
(Goodwood 5-15) – 20/80
MISTER ROCKANDROLL – 2ND 10/3
(Goodwood 5-50) – 20/80

Not a single winner but a serious profit extracted and that first named paid 18 a place on BF.

2000Gns Profiling was bang on the money, GLENEAGLES very confidently selected as the winner.

20 To Follow?….on the 28th of April I sent this out to the membership:

“The ninth for our lists is entered to run on Saturday and was given an almost “Prescott-like” first season by Amanda Perrett, running three times in the space of just 21 days last October.

I felt this one was unlucky on debut at Salisbury, when third to Moheet of Richard Hannon’s. I’m not the only one, either. Next time out he opened at 7/2, was backed in to 9/4….and finished plum last.

On his third and final run last year OPEN THE RED went off @ 16/1 and he was allowed to coast home in 10th behind easy winner Heatstroke…again from the Hannon yard.

Just under three lengths ahead of him was a Godolphin runner, Global Force, who won on seasonal debut at Newmarket on April 15th.
Obviously a lot will depend on the draw being kind this weekend but Perrett likes a winner there and if this one can be competitive, I’m sure it will be.”
OPEN THE RED bolted up in the Goodwood 5-15 – 7/2 > 3/1 and one of the members that got busy with his tracker posted this on our Facebook wall:

“Flagged up on my tracker last night – 8/1 with bet365… Cheers Ron, great day of results, another bottle of wine tonight me thinks”

How did the Ratings perform?

NEWMARKET 2-00

T* – BRONZE ANGEL….+1
T* – SPIRIT OF THE LAW….-2
* – EDUCATE….-8 – 3RD 11/2
T* – BALTY BOYS….-10 – WON 8/1
H* – HALATION….-13 – 2ND 11/2
* – ANGELIC UPSTART….-15
* – KNIGHT OWL….-19
TOP TUG….-27
PERSONA GRATA….-31
T – ALL SET TO GO….-36
RUBAN….-36

RESULT: I plumped for rated horses 1, 2 and 4, scrambled a very small profit off my dutch and was happy enough with the first rated race on what constituted day 1. Having the first three in my top five rated was not a bad way to kick off.

GOODWOOD 2-50

§* – MEZZOTINT….+10
§* – BROWNSEA BRINK….+8
* – MAJESTIC MOON….+5
§* – RED REFRACTION….+3
* – HIGHLAND COLORI….+3
* – DORNOCH….+1
* – RED AVENGER….-4
* – EMELL….-7
T* – BERTIEWHITTLE….-12
* – PASTORAL PLAYER….-14
§* – OUTER SPACE….-14
FIFTYSHADESOFGREY….-23 – WON 8/1

NOTES: Of the two rated races being run here this is the one I’m looking forward to most. A low draw would normally be a “must have” and those drawn high cause for self certification. however, it’s still early doors with regards the season and it may be those drawn high, having raced already this season, have an edge but, I’m not going to shirk this as we have to start sometime and I’m going in.

I have three in my top six bearing the §* icons…they get this gig. Of that trio it’s RED REFRACTION winking at me. Having won here previously is a priceless asset and he’s one of three in here to have that on their CV. The other pair are MAJESTIC MOON and RED AVENGER. Both have drawn coffin boxes.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – MEZZOTINT, BROWNSEA BRINK, RED REFRACTION
20/80 – RED REFRACTION
EXOTICS – MEZZOTINT, BROWNSEA BRINK, RED REFRACTION

RESULT: I was now thinking that perhaps I should have stayed away for another week but fortune favours the brave and one battle never won or lost a war.

GOODWOOD 3-25

* – PERFECT MUSE….+8 – 3RD 9/2
§* – LADWEB….+7 – 6TH 9/1
§* – BORDERLESCOTT….+6 – 4TH 8/1
* – DEEDS NOT WORDS….+4 –
§* – HUMIDOR….+4 – WON 9/2
* – IFRANESIA….+3 – NR
* – DOCTOR PARKES….-2
* – EXTRASOLAR….-3
T – LONG AWAITED….-22
FLASHY QUEEN….-34
ELUSIVITY….-37
§ – FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN….-40

RESULT: Very happy to have got something from this as my own play consisted of a dutch rated horses 2, 3 and 5….all three having the brace of icons I’ll be working with when we have nothing holding the three that looks likely to produce profit this term.

THIRSK 4-00

* – BONDI BEACH BOY….+9
SIGNORE PICCOLO….+9
§* – ONE BOY….+9 – 3RD 14/1
§* – CAPTAIN DUNNE….+8 – WON 25/1
* – IMPERIAL LEGEND….+8 – 2ND 6/1
* – FLASH CITY….+8
* – OLDJOESAID….+4
§ – BOXING SHADOWS….-5
MASTER BOND….-15
§ – JACK LUEY….-24

RESULT: Brilliant! My own play consisted off rated horses 1, 3 and 4 and a 25/1 winner in that dutch produced a nice enough profit. I was within 1/2 a length of a terrific exacta but, I’ll nail a few of them as we go along this summer.

THIRSK 4-35

* – FORT BASTION….+12
§* – OUR BOY JACK….+12 – 6TH 25/1
* – OFF ART….+9 – 2ND 11/2
T§* – SOUND ADVICE….+8 – WON 13/2
§* – INGLEBY ANGEL….+8
§* – KIWI BAY….+2 – 4TH 22/1
COMINO….+2
T* – GINGER JACK….+/-0
* – DON’T CALL ME….-9
§ – TY GWR….-9
* – JOHNNY CAVAGIN….-10
* – CACTUS VALLEY….-10
OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY….-6
* – TWO FOR TWO….-11
AUTUN….-19
* – EURYSTHEUS….-23
MUJAZIF….-27
DREAM WALKER….-31

NOTES: The race I am most looking forward to this afternoon. The dust will be settling on the 2000Gns when the lids open here and the three I will be working with are rated horses 2, 4 and 5. SOUND ADVICE has attracted the three icons I’ll be very interested in this season and given he is 1-1 at the track, has a good draw and that the ground and trip are right, he has to be of great interest here.

INGLEBY ANGEL also have everything bang on. A 40% strike rate on today’s ground, he’s also 2-7 at Thirsk and I imagine O’Meara has been targeting this race for him as they are his optimum conditions.

OUR BOY JACK would the least of the three I in my dutch that would be considered for solo punting purposes. and with SOUND ADVICE likely to be ridden right on the speed and having enjoyed a pipe-opener just two weeks back, plus having those icons…he’s my 20/80

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – OUR BOY JACK, SOUND ADVICE, INGLEBY ANGEL
20/80 – SOUND ADVICE
EXOTICS – OUR BOY JACK, SOUND ADVICE, INGLEBY ANGEL

RESULT: Does it get any better? This was the race I was most looking forward to yesterday and was even posted up as the free rated race. Will that result in new members? Probably not but, with a serious profit taken I’ll not fret. The only horse yesterday to have those three icons I have been banging on about and it absolutely flew in. The figures were very “sound”, too.

THIRSK 5-40

* – MUNFALLET….+13
* – BIRDMAN….+10 – WON 5/4
* – EVANSCENT….+7 – 2ND 10/1
* – BIG STORM COMING….-13
* – KINGSCROFT….-15
TRAIL BLAZE….-18
* – BE ROYALE….-19
TWIN POINT….-29

RESULT: Quite predictable really. I played my top three to bits and pieces and took a near 20/1 exacta out of it. Happy enough.

DONCASTER 7-15

§* – DESERT LAW….+9 – NR
§* – WHOZTHECAT….+9
§* – REX WHISTLER….+8
§* – LOVE ISLAND….+2 – 2ND 33/1
§* – APRICOT SKY….+2
§* – HOOFALONG….-3
§* – SUNRAIDER….-4
T* – CHILWORTH ICON….-5
§* – MONEY TEAM….-10
T – TIGER JIM….-10
§ – COUNTER RIDGE….-14
§ – MESHARDAL….-22
T – MUIR LODGE….-35
BOP IT….-40
ANCIENT CROSS….-40

RESULT: We were actually in a Hoylake restaurant when this went off (it had been a long day and nobody was cooking this end!). Close to a 33/1 winner in my dutch as I simply used my top three for all bets.

I’m really happy with day one….I think it’s fair to say that!

TODAY

You will see from the “assumed” going descriptions that it is raining everywhere right now and with that very much in mind I have opted not to add text to those races being run at Hamilton, which  provides us with a few to fire at if it remains good to sot.

I’ve a brace from Newmarket, too, and have added text to those races.

Salisbury offers up diddly by way of rated races though and we’ll just have to see if day 2 comes close to day 1.

I opted not to Profile the 1000Gns as it’s all over the place. It is certainly much more difficult to work with than the colts race but I will have another look this morning and if something does raise it’s head above those parapets, I’ll send it out.

AN EVENING WITH AP MCCOY

Fancy an evening in the company of Tony McCoy? Just click on the picture to obtain more details:

20 TO FOLLOW

The rest of the 20 to follow horses will be sent out Monday.

TIPPEDTOLOSE


This all kicks off tomorrow. I still have work to do on the website but the first lay suggestions will be posted up tomorrow….if I find them!

Are you interested in the laying side of betting?

I now have the website ready to take subscribers and if you would like to become a member of www.tippedtolose.co.uk you can do so any time you wish.

I have included a few things to indicate what will be on offer, what I will be doing and, how I will be doing it.

This is the kind of thing you can expect to read on there:

THE LAY

BOGART was a very well backed favourite on the day, punted from 11/4 > 9/4 on course but the horse’s overall profile suggested that he is a very difficult horse to win with. He has just one win since 2011 and that came in 2013.

The last three of this horses wins have come in fields consisting of 20 or more runners and those last three wins had also come late August, early October.

Seven previous attempts to win on genuine good ground had proven fruitless and I am very much of a mind he is a six furlong horse.

There were more than enough minus points and such a short priced favourite in such a competitive race, had to be taken on.

That was a recently rated race that produced a top rated 7/1 winner but the lay of a well back favourite was of much more importance to me personally.

I am looking forward to getting this working and producing profit!

If you have any questions regarding the new site please do get back to me.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Hamilton Park / Sun 03 May
    Updated @ Sun 03 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Soft (Soft in places on the loop) (GoingStick: 6.4 on Sunday at 06:45)

    Rails: Rail is dolled out on the loop adding approx 20yds to all races over distances of 1 Mile and further at this meeting.

    Stalls: 5F – Centre 1 Mile – Inside Remainder – Standside

  • Weather

    2.2mm rain overnight. Very light rain at present. Forecast 3-6mm rain before midday, gradually clearing away thereafter. Max temp 11C.

  • Newmarket / Sun 03 May
    Updated @ Sun 03 May

    Going/Track

    Good to Firm (Firm in Places) (GoingStick: 8.8 (Stand Side 8.7; Centre 8.9; Far Side 8.6) on Saturday at 10:00)

    Rails: The re-positioning of the bend into the home straight has increased the distance of the 12f Handicap by 9 yds.

    Stalls: Stand Side Course 12f Centre Remainder Stand Side

    Watering: 5mm of water applied to the course on Friday

  • Weather

    0.5mm of overnight rain. Rain due to arrive at approximately 08.00am and due to clear at approximately 11.00am. Sunday; Rain clearing late morning to leave sunny spells and the possibility of an afternoon shower 18C.

  • Salisbury / Sun 03 May
    Updated @ Sun 03 May

    Going/Track

    Firm, Good to Firm in places STILL RAINING AS AT 7.50am. 8.5MM SO FAR. Course will be assessed once rain has stopped which is due to be about 9am. (GoingStick: 9.9 on Saturday at 10:15)

    Stalls: 5F, 6F & 7F – Far side 1M2F – Inside 1M4F – Stands side

  • Weather

    9mm rain received last weekend. 3mm rain received on Wednesday. Saturday overnight – 8.5mm so far as at 7.50am Sunday – damp start, then mainly cloudy with possibility of the odd shower in the afternoon. 16’C

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

NEWMARKET 1-50

§* – DONNY ROVER….+12
§* – VIKING STORM….+12
T* – KELINNI….+9
* – HIGHLAND CASTLE….+1
T§* – INNOCENT TOUCH….-1
* – QUEST FOR MORE….-1
§ – MONTALY….-2
§* – LUNGARNO PALACE….-6
T* – FIRE FIGHTING….-7
GOTHIC….-12
T – WATERSMEET….-16
§ – AGENT MURPHY….-28
FARQUHAR….-28
§ – ASTRONEUS….-31
ARAB DAWN….-31
ADVENTURE SEEKER….-39
BARBICAN….-40

NOTES: Tricky. Only FARQUHAR has winning form here but his rating suggests he’ll not be good enough. My top rated has tried twice here in the past and blown out each time. He is also 0-1 at the trip. He does though have a 22% strike rate on the going that we currently believe exists.

VIKING STORM has not been seen for 582 days and that very nearly gets him into the “have you seen Lucan” club. He is though, going to enjoy ground and trip if history repeats itself….3-9 on the ground, 33% strike rate over 12 furlongs….0-1 here though. If Harry Dunlop has him fit enough (pure guesswork), he’ll run a decent race.

INNOCENT TOUCH cops for those three icons and Fahey wouldn’t send him down if he didn’t think he’d be competitive. A beaten favourite on seasonal debut 17 days back, he’s in my dutch. This horse is 1-4 at the trip and on the ground and it’s just a case of whether of not Newmarket will suit…first trip here.

The one winking at me is QUEST FOR MORE. The track is an unknown…first time here….but he is 2-5 over the trip and on this ground. If Newmarket doesn’t find him out and if the trainer has him straight enough, he’ll be running a very big race.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – DONNY ROVER, VIKING STORM, INNOCENT TOUCH
20/80 – INNOCENT TOUCH
EXOTICS – DONNY ROVER, VIKING STORM, INNOCENT TOUCH

NEWMARKET 3-00

§* – ACCESSION….+17
T* – SUPPLICANT….+10
T§* – EASTERN IMPACT….+9
T* – BLAINE….+9
* – ZANETTO….+8
§* – HUNTSMANS CLOSE….+8
* – SECRETINTHE PARK….+4
* – DINKUM DIAMOND….-8
§* – SEEKING MAGIC….-8
* – SWISS CROSS….-9
* – BOOMERANG BOB….-15
T* – FREE CODE….-20
* – GO FAR….-25
* – SHORE STEP….-25
* – BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS….-25
§ – HILLBILLY BOY….-26
FOXTROT ROMEO….-30
GAMESOME….-33
§ – RUWIAYAN….-35
SUZI’S CONNOISSUER….-36
BADDILINI….-40
§ – RUN WITH PRIDE….-40
§ – DON’T HAVE IT THEN….-40

NOTES: As tight as a mallards backside. Fahey again has one securing all three icons and I expect EASTERN IMPACT to run a solid race. His personal stats give cause for optimism….1-2 at Newmarket, 2-6 at the trip and a 40% strike rate on the current going. He is in my dutch and will be my 20/80.

My top rated has previous winning form here (1-3), has a 20% strike rate at the trip but that one win from six attempts at winning on this ground concerns me.

HUNTSMANS CLOSE will be the third in my dutch. Again the ground is an issue, just one win from eight on it and he;s never visited Newmarket before. Three wins from 16 shots at the trip also has me rubbing my chin but, he’s got a decent draw to work with if I have read this correctly.

Of the rest ZANETTO is very much worth keeping an eye on. Track, trip and ground are right and he’ll be a player if fit enough on debut. In his 3-y-o season his early form was very good and it will be down to Balding’S skill at getting one handicapped again with this one.

MY PLAY:

DUTCH – ACCESSION, EASTERN IMPACT, HUNTSMANS CLOSE
20/80 – EASTERN IMPACT
EXOTICS – ACCESSION, EASTERN IMPACT, HUNTSMANS CLOSE

HAMILTON 1-40

T§* – TINSILL….+9
T* – CAPTAIN SCOOBY….+8
T* – ECONOMIC CRISIS….+3
T* – LORD BUFFHEAD….-1
T§* – INCOMPARABLE….-10
T – BRONZE BEAU….-17
T§ – FATHOM FIVE….-35
ELLA’S DELIGHT….-40
T – PABUSAR….-40

HAMILTON 2-10

T* – BARON RUN….+19
T§* – HOPES AND DREAMS….+13
* – CLASSY ANNE….+12
T§* – ROYAL CONNOISSUER….+10
T* – MANATEE BAY….+8
T§* – RODRIGO DE TORRES….+7
T* – AMBITIOUS ICARUS….+5
T – VIVA VERGLAS….-1
T* – KENNY THE CAPTAIN….-5
T§ – VALLARTA….-6
T§ – NORVILLE….-12
T – CHISWICK BEY….-13
T – LOTHAIR….-16
* – FLEURTILLE….-26
§ – AZRUR….-39
T – PENNINE WARRIOR….-40

HAMILTON 3-20

T – RALPHY LAD….+15
SILVER DUKE….+4
T* – PADDY’S ROCK….-12
FAIR TRADE….-24
VITTACHI….-30
LATIN REBEL….-40
HALJAFERIA….-40

HAMILTON 5-05

T – DANCIN ALPHA….+14
* – ANOTHER FOR JOE….+11
T – WE’LL SHAKE HANDS….-8
T* – DAY OF THE EAGLE….-10
T – GREEN ZONE….-22
T – STRADATER….-35
WEST BRIT….-38

Best of luck if you are getting involved!

Kindest regards

Ron

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