For whatever reason, April is as likely to be the best month of the year, as not.
The first rated race at Aintree produced the 33/1 winner in the top two….which were clear on my figures. The winner paid close to 70 BFSP.
I produced my Grand National Profiling yesterday and enjoyed doing that. If I’m right, it’s a 20/1 winner but most likely something wholly unconsidered will go galloping past the post, winning by 10 lengths that couldn’t be found by anything other than a lucky pin.
I watched the racing at Aintree and the first race was like watching Novice Chasers jumping fences for the first time. The only one to put in anything like a clear round duly won it.
Hargam went off a very short priced favourite in the 2-15 and proved my fear he had left that race at cheltenham completely spot on. The winner was one that had been unsighted in the Fred Winter, which is the race for Triumph Hurdle reserves.
Silviniaco Conti proved he was actually the best horse in his race by beating the handicapper Ballynagour by a rapidly diminishing head. The RUK commentators were doing their best to convince those listening that the runner up had now proven he’s capable of taking that next step up in class…me?….I’m thinking nonsense. It’s end of season form and not worth a carrot.
Ruby Walsh took a good kicking when Arctic Fire came to win his race but hit the last and came down. and the Foxhunter did prove very easy to solve (as predicted!), when the front two in the market did finish 1st and 2nd. It really is that simple to box that one off.
Two rated races at Leicester and one from Aintree (1-40)
The 2-15 is traditionally won by one of the two at the head of the market so a dutch/exotic Glingerburn/Qewy MIGHT WORK.
2-50….expect no surprises here, either. The winner is in the front three on the tissue, Paul Nicholls generally farms this, he has the front pair heading the market and one of them most likely wins it.
3-25….I expect the layers to take a caning at Aintree this afternoon. If I were betting I would be working with Champagne Fever and Al Ferof.
4-05….I’ll not be looking outside the front six on the tissue but, I would be binning the one they post up as favourite. That means I expect the winner to come from one of RADJHANI EXPRESS, EASTLAKE, MONETAIRE, STANDING OVATION and DARNA…..the first named looks a solid 20/80.
4-40….MINELLA ROCCO is considered the best horse currently housed at Jonjo’s place. Again I expect the winner to be in the front trio on the tissue and it’s possible AP has another winner.
5-15….BRAIN POWER looks interesting but you could say that about half this field. Fun money race only.
The website is now up and you can see it coming into being as I work on it over the next week.
On Monday, May 4th I will commence this new service and will be advising of subscription fees etc once the website is completed.
It’s over at www.tippedtolose.co.uk
Leicester / Fri 10 Apr
Updated @ Thu 09 Apr
Soft, Good to Soft in places. (GoingStick: 5.4 on Thursday at 08:30)
Rails: There is a false rail from the top of the hill on the back straight all the way to the winning line, this has increased the distances on all the round course races by approx 17 yards.
Stalls: 6f and 7f stands side,5f centre. Round course inside.
Dry overnight. Forecast: Thursday- Dry with sunny spells max temp 16c.Friday- Dry with sunny spells max temp 17c.
Aintree / Fri 10 Apr
Updated @ Thu 09 Apr
Mildmay & Hurdle – Good to Soft, Good in places National – Good to Soft, Good in places (GoingStick: Mildmay 6.8 Hurdle 6.4 National 6.4 on Thursday at 11:00)
Rails: Mildmay – all bends, and hurdles, on outer configuration for Thursday increasing advertised distances by 40yrds per circuit on the Mildmay and 90yrds per circuit on the Hurdle course. All bends will be moved in after racing each day
Watering: Tuesday – Mildmay and Hurdle selective watered 5mm
Dry overnight. Thursday – dry and sunny day. Warm 15C Friday – dry and sunny, cloudy pm with poss. showers/light rain overnight 2mm 17C Saturday – poss. showers am, then dry and sunny, cooler. Breezy 12C
* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)
* – LYVIUS….+7
* – VASCO DU RONCERAY….-7
H* – PEARL SWAN….-11
* – LEXI’S BOY….-13
* – ENCHANTED GARDEN….-17
* – PARTY ROCK….-22
* – NEXIUS….-24
* – SOME BUCKLE….-40
THE SAINT JAMES….-40
ROCK ON ROCKY….-40
* – EASTERN DRAGON….-10
* – WHALEWEIGH STATION….-10
T – DUELLING BARON….-40
NOTES: My top rated certainly has the ground in it’s favour. Three tries on it…won two of them. That said….my third best is 2-2 on it! BARON RUN comes from a yard that is going well early doors but trip and ground look wrong.
I suggest it’s between 1 & 3 but it’s a low rating affair and if you are playing, keep those takes low!
T – BARISTA….+4
* – ARTFUL PRINCE….-3
* – GREAT EXPECTATIONS….-4
* – ANCIENT GREECE…..-7
* – EUROQUIP BOY….-10
* – SOLO HUNTER….-17
Have a great day