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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/04/15

Ron RobinsonWhen you see a horse rated 45 on the flat making debut over hurdles and going in at 80/1, you know a good decision to cease betting on the jumpers has been made.

Just 45 minutes later William Money, the rank outsider in the Haydock 2-00, bolted up at 33/1 and even the all weather aficionados got off to a sticky start at Kempton when 16/1 shot Rosalee took the five runner opener and if the Irish lads thought they’d be safe at Cork, the rank outsider was backed from 40/1 > 28/1 and took the mid card handicap.

April, eh!

TODAY

Again just Musselburgh and I have provided figures for the 1-50pm, 2-25pm, 2-55pm and 3-25pm.

The last of those is again run over a trip in excess of 12 furlongs and once I get back to work properly here, they will not be included.

We have no draw bias that I can see in any of today’s races so horses wearing the T§* icons don’t cost this afternoon. We do have a top rated horse T* and that type of horse will be every bit as important when May arrives.

Once this goes out I’ll be going for a good long walk, enjoying a good lamb roast this afternoon, prepping tomorrow’s work for racing at Redcar and having a bit more time away from the computers.

I received an e-mail yesterday (apologies, not had a chance to get back personally yet!), asking me if I will be doing anything for the Irish Grand National. I’ll happily rate that race and include figures tomorrow.

500 CLUB HORSES

For those that did not see this yesterday….

We are not having a happy time of it right now.

We had been due to race but I had a feeling something might not be 100% right when little if anything was coming through to me from Harry’s place.

Yesterday I received this:

“More bad news I’m afraid!

Dunn’s River has slightly knocked into himself and has a small injury and Dancing Solo is coughing. 

This means that we won’t be racing DR tomorrow at Newton Abbot and we won’t be racing DS at Taunton next week but hope we might take Dunn’s River to Taunton. I will keep you informed after the weekend I get back from Fairyhouse where Bitofapuzzle and Desert Queen run on Sunday.

They, importantly, are very well, as is Rock on Ruby for Aintree.

It has been one step forward and 2 steps back recently and, although the yard has been getting clear of the bug, Dancing Solo’s condition is confounding.
This means that after an action-packed season into February, it has been disappointingly quiet for you, and the yard itself of course.
I am sorry we won’t be meeting up at Newton Abbot as I have been missing you regular racegoers!
With best wishes and have a very happy Easter.”

TIPPEDTOLOSE

On Monday, May 4th I will commence a new service.

I have been promising for a while now to have www.tippedtolose.co.uk up and running and on that day it will be up and live.

The last year has been me getting back to something like full health and many of the things I wanted to do simply couldn’t be done because for the majority of my day I resembled a maraca, so many tablets were going down my neck. I believe I also seriously underestimated exactly what had happened to me!

As the dose was lowered I have had wobbly moments, that’s for sure but now I’m down to eight from what seemed a million at one point. Gone from weekly to monthly bloods and my main concern now is shifting this weight that has built up because of the steroids….that should be a laugh!

By the end of April, I will be down to just three and trust me, that’s a milestone!

Anyway, tippedtolose….I know a few of you are seriously looking forward to working with this, especially after the performance demonstrated in the year before the legs disappeared!

I was going to have it as part of the Post Racing site but I’m now thinking it has to be wholly separate. It will be its own entity. If laying horses is your thing, I believe you’ll enjoy this.

I will, each day, be using my figures to provide you with bad favourites we can look to get stuck into. I make more profit from laying horses than I do betting them and have for a fair few years now used my numbers for this purpose. I’m hoping to beat that figure of 36 (I think it was), consecutive favourites laid and beaten, over the course of a season.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Musselburgh / Sun 05 Apr
    Updated @ Sat 04 Apr

    Going/Track

    Soft (GoingStick: 5.1 on Saturday at 10:00)

    Rails: The stand rail is out from the inner adding 9 yards on to all round races The bottom Bend Rail is out from the inner adding 9 yards on to all races except 5f

    Stalls: 5f and 2m Stands Side Remainder Inside

  • Weather

    2mm in last 24 hours Dry from 1pm yesterday Cloudy Calm Morning Saturday – Early Cloud clearing to Sunny spells dry 12c Sunday – Sunny Spells Dry Milder 13c

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
§ – Indicates best drawn
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

MUSSELBURGH 1-50

T* – INDIAN GIVER….+9
RIOJA DAY….-1
T – MONTE CASSINO….-17
GALILLEE CHAPEL….-26
NELSON’S BAY….-34
T – CHIEF EXECUTIVE….-34
T – PROSTATE AWARENESS….-40
T – KEENE’S POINTE….-40
TH – ORIENTAL DREAM….-40

NOTE: A horse clear top rated bearing those T* icons that proved profitable during the winter (the icons….not the horse!).

INDIAN GIVER is the only previous winner on soft ground, taking part this afternoon. The rest have tried 18 times between them and not managed it.

However, it should be pointed out that my top rated has managed it only once from eight attempts (May 2012), on it so whether you take it as gospel she does actually handle it, is very much up to you. Personally, I’d be thinking quicker ground suits best, her other two wins coming on good ground and her form figures on anything slower since that win  – 5-8, 13-15, 8-11, 8-9, 6-11 – indicating to me it’s not floating her boat.

However, she’s arriving here match fit, the rest probably bark and come when called and she’s as likely as anything to win here.

Still wouldn’t touch this Class 6 using a 20ft barge pole myself.

MUSSELBURGH 2-25

T – JEBEL TARA….-9
SMALLJOHN….-14
T* – NOVALIST….-14
THRUST CONTROL….-14
OPT OUT….-14
BLUE JACKET….-18
SEWN UP….-19
T – HELLBENDER….-19

MUSSELBURGH 2-55

VALANTINO OYSTER….+11
T – BAHAMIAN C….-1
T – GAMBINO….-1
SILVER DUKE….-11
T* – POLAR FOREST….-14
ARGAKI….-22
T – MR RED CLUBS….-30
TH – GOTCHA….-32
RALPHY BOY….-36
NEW COLOURS….-36
WEAPON OF CHOICE….-40

MUSSELBURGH 3-25

* – BRIGHT ABBEY….-3
BRAE OF LOCHALSH….-11
T* – BE PERFECT….-12
LADY KASHAAN….-14
T* – PRECISION STRIKE….-14
T* – MR SNOOZY….-16
T – HANDIWORK….-21
CORTON LAD….-27
T – NASHVILLE….-30
T – ROYAL SIGNALLER….-40
T – STREETS OF NEWYORK….-40
SCRAPPER SMITH….-40
MARAWEH….-40

Have a great day

Kindest regards

Ron

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