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Top 3 rated stats updated w/e 29/3/15

Top 3/old school exotics, regardless of official play, omitting Sedgefield wrong flag/void fiasco race, and Dec 12th Cheltenham/Doncaster revised going ratings.

1st Nov-29th Mar, 787 rated races, 469 of 8+ runners, with 318 of 4-7 or fewer (play all 3 or just 2 on these?)

Tricast wins 12/469 races = £2814 staked at £1 per point, returning £1879.52 a loss of -£930

Wins @ £206.47, £380.23, £198.99, £256.44, £170.21, £158.12, £196.93. Clearly a minimum tricast return of around £200 is the target.

NB £198.99 tricast Don 11.55 13/12/14 only 7 runners with a NR, also 6 runner tricast of £33.62 on 15/12 Plum 3.25, and this week’s £196.93 was reduced to 7 runners. Note 8/9 declared runners reduced to 7; clearly more pts staked than the known 8+ runner total. £200 target still holds

CSF/exacta wins 102/787 races = £4722 staked at £1 per point (or £3450; 469×6, 318×2) returning £3239.55/£3523.80, a loss of -£1480/£1200

Those totals are based on 6pt stake from 3 horses. Approximately 20% of those 62 wins and 15% returns would be lost should you stick to top 2 for 4-7 runner fields, as 3rd highest horse provided the win or place.

Wins of £56.28/£72.20, £56.93/£50.10, £127.93/£61.90, £41.73/£21, £50.09/£50.70, £99.80/£83.80, £61.57/£87.50, £55.68/£45.90, £45.80/£65.40, £62.02/£109.70, £91.27/£134.70, £43.32/£79.30, £87.24/£138.30, £290.60/£291.07(San 3.00 31/1/15), £104.65/£67.70, £282.93/£522.10

Playing every race is as pointless as playing every dutch; many just aren’t worth chasing. Probably £60/70+ should be the minimum CSF targeted.

About gary kelly

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