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Outsiders

This is an angle that has been itching away for a couple of years or so, and been mentioned to one or two on the old forum.

Still being revised, but it is based on reading between the lines of what someone who was using speed ratings had said (or not said, as actually was the case). I read into it that he was using the cut off point of the top 6 rated in flat races, and I wondered if it would transfer to our ratings.

I initially recorded every industry SP of highest 6 rated and the amount of winners returned. It became obvious where the value lay, especially with Betfair SP.

Some may think 12-16/1 qualify. Not me. They lost last NH season and last flat (despite flying start)

I’m really talking 20-33/1, when exchange price can provide a huge premium, though sometimes not!

For last NH season I narrowed it to 22-28/1. 33/1 gave two winners I recall, and it took a losing run of about 70 or so before Warsaw Pact won at 67 or so. Overall some profit before 5%, but wiped out by loss of 20/1’s. I have lost all exact figures, but strongest performance was 25/1’s.

Last flat summary is on the desktop I need fixing. It was I think the only category to profit, and BC did it well. I think 9 winners from around 170 qualifiers, to about +170pts before 5%. I will amend this when I access correct figure, but it’s not far off that

This NH season has been testing, with too many 6 or 7 declared runner fields reduced to 5 runner, sometimes 4.

There have been a smattering of winners, but it was a losing season, although picking up. 5 25/1 winners. Two much earlier in the season, but 3 in last few weeks, with SP of approx 48, 44, 39, 32.88 and an unfortunately shocking 19.3 yesterday in Age of Glory. Normally 25/1 shot goes off around 30-50 on exchange, sometimes 60ish. No real patterns as such, although I think win on going and at distance more likely to help narrow selections.

Downside? Losing streak, especially the longest likely mathematically. I don’t have the exact formula used on spreadsheet, but SR of 5.5 or 6%? Over 100, maybe 120. Other downside is the need to know the last possible industry price before the off, meaning having access through the day. For those with day jobs, it means guessing or taking morning exchange price in the aforementioned bracket, and hoping no major movement. Not idea.

I may record all 20-33/1’s in top 5 or 6 this flat season, or stick with 25/1.

I hope this has been useful and of interest

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Ron’s play stats updated w/e 19/11/17

4(10)/32 -11.93pts betfair SP after 5% (-9.25pts as advised play)