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Today’s Ratings and Advice 28/02/15

Ron RobinsonWe seem to have an issue with logging in to the website and I have reported this.

We recently had an issue that needed sorting out. Some clown had hacked into the website and introduced certain things into the coding that meant some of you were logging in and being taken to some dating agency website, amongst other things.

Additional security was introduced for admin users wishing to visit the dashboard area of the website but it seems this is impacting on some of the newer members in particular. I ask that you are patient whilst this is sorted out and assure you that you are missing nothing with regards the daily information you receive.

As a result of the recent promotion I have a plethora of e-mails to respond to and this is something I do personally. I was here until just turned 11-00pm last night doing just that.

One I am in the middle of responding to is from a retired gentleman considering joining us, who has asked for some further information.

He is interested in joining the 500 Club.

He has advised me, as mentioned, that he is retired and looking to supplement his pension by looking for someone like me to help him do that through betting on race horses.

He advises me that he has tried many tipping services in the past and found them all useless.

He has asked for details regarding strike rate and profitability of what I produce.

I will be responding thus:

“Good morning,

I will be 100% honest with you in answering your questions but first I should point out that what I provide is not a “tipping service”. I am a private handicapper.

What we do at Post Racing each day is provide you with the very best independent private handicap figures and offer several ways of utilising them, that works in the long term.

The important part of that last paragraph are the words “long term”.

I am assuming you have found Post Racing following the promotion of our services by an independent organisation, this week?

In the body of that promotional text was the advice that, from November 1st to February 22nd, following the system we have called the T Factor, our member could have produced a profit, after commissions, of 60+ points, to a level stake.

Top Rated with *&T symbols = 14/70 to profit +66.68pts Betfair SP, +60.17pts after 5% deduction

That was taken from the pages kept by Gary Kelly, one of our 500 Club members, who keeps meticulous stats on the performance of several ways in which the Ratings can be utilised.

In the period of time this has been monitored (it was only introduced this season), you can see that less than one bet per day, on average, has been placed. There have been 14 winners producing that profit. Does the thought that you have backed 56 losers cause you an issue? Would it cause you an issue if you punted 32 consecutive losers?

What will have happened during that period is that losing runs will have been experienced.

During the flat season of 2013 (May 1st to September 30th), we produced for our members, that play only the top rated horses irrespective of icons, a profit in excess of 370 points, before commissions. During that period of time a losing run of the length mentioned occurred.

Do you have the betting bank to enable you to suffer such a run and, more importantly, do you have the mental strength to cope with it? The latter is far, far more important. How you deal with losing will determine whether or not you profit from betting on horse racing.

How would you have handled yesterday?

I provided Ratings for six races. If you were punting the top rated horses only (as many, many do), you would have endured five straight losing races before this happened:

DONCASTER 5-25

* – SMART CATCH….+9 – WON 11/1
HARVEY’S HOPE….-4
FIRE TOWER….-8
* – KYLES FAITH….-18
SASSANOVA….-24
* – CHURCH FIELD….-33
POKER SCHOOL….-38
* – CELTIC ARTISAN….-40
* – ROLL ON RUBY….-40
T – BARENGER….-40
T – FRANK N FAIR….-40
DOLLY DIAMOND….-40
TH – PAGHAM BELLE….-40
H – PORTMONARCH….-40

You need to ask yourself an honest question. Where would your head have been after race five?

Can you accept a losing bet in exactly the same way you accept a winning bet? If losing causes you angst (and that is what happens to the majority of punters trying to make profit on a regular basis), then you need to do one of two things. Quit betting on horses or, treat your betting as your fun.

My membership consists of those who enjoy a casual fun bet, in the hope (not expectation), that they’ll hit the jackpot once in a while and are happy to subscribe to Post Racing, knowing it will sometimes happen.

We have professional punters, TV and media people, and people from all kinds of backgrounds that take the figures daily and all will use my work differently.

One of our Weekend Club members, Michelle, recently turned £8.40 into nearly £2k by making four selections from my rated races and it may be another year before that happens again or, it may be this weekend. Nobody can know, without access to a De Lorean and a mad scientist, who can get hold of tomorrow’s newspapers.

You mention you have tried many tipping services and found them all useless.

I would like to know how long you gave each of those services before you made the decision to leave them? It may well be you were simply unlucky and opted for services run by charlatans and rogues who offered the Holy Grail in return for a relatively small subscription fee.

It may well be you joined them just at the start of a losing run, following a run of sheer brilliance.

The Holy Grail does not exist.

The only way you will make a profit from working with someone purporting to be successful is to make the decision, once you have joined, to give it at least a year.

I say that because I myself makes no decision on whether or not I myself has had a good year, before that year concludes.

The only promises I will ever make anyone joining us is that you have access now to someone who works as hard as anyone else and harder than most, at finding winners of horse racing. The testimonials on my website are 100% “kosher” and come from people who are still members.

If after reading the above you opt to join us you will be made very welcome but if you make the decision to keep looking then I wish you all the very best of luck in your continued search.”

I will also guarantee we’ll have plenty of fun looking for that profit, too.

THE 500 CLUB HORSES

News arrived from Harry Fry regarding the two 500 Club horses that ran at Taunton on Thursday:

“Both Dunn’s River and Dancing Solo are well this morning so we now wait to see what the handicapper comes up with for Dunn’s River.
We hope Dancing Solo will be treated kindly after her second to It’s a Long Road yesterday. The second place was irritating for two good reasons as firstly, the winner took the mickey when, to all appearances, he seemed to be in trouble a long way out only to come again with a wet sail to win by a length. During the race, Martyn Brown warned me that might happen as the winner did it last time out! Secondly, there was £2000 on offer for the winning connections from the Racehorse Owners Association Jackpot (because our nominated partners are ROA members) so we lost that by a length!
It was a good day’s racing but Dunn’s River was racing in horrible tacky ground although Dancing Solo coped very well and showed some real spirit under the talented Gary Derwin.”

I am still awaiting further news regarding the health of Highland Retreat and will get back to you shortly on that.

TODAY

I have three meetings rated and ready….figures below.

It’s “fun betting” stuff but competitive and hopefully we’ll get some joy from our punting today.

I have added text to those races I am most interested in betting myself but please do not let my leaving a race alone stop you from getting involved if you fancy something in those races yourself. My opinion is simply that.

CHELTENHAM PREVIEW EVENING
All details about John’s Cheltenham preview and new Cheltenham contenders book are available and updated on www.jumpingprospects.co.uk

Monday 2nd March.
Venue: The Old Railway Club, Melling Road,
Aintree, Liverpool, L9 0LQ. (Opposite the racecourse)
7.45pm start.

£10 entry (Free £5 Ladbrokes betting voucher on entry, while stocks last)

Panel:

Charlie Longsdon (Trainer),
John Parrott,
Ben Pauling (Trainer)
Andy Holding (Form expert)
John Morris (Jumping Prospects).

Hosted by Darren Owen Racecourse commentator.

Raffle Prizes including:
Free bets donated by bookmakers, Racecourse Badges, plus other prizes.

There will also be a donation made to Alder Hey Children’s Hospital

Last year John had over 200 people turn out for this and it’s a cracking good evening.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Doncaster / Sat 28 Feb
    Updated @ Sat 28 Feb

    Going/Track

    Good (GoingStick: Chase 7.5 Hurdle 8.0 on Saturday at 06:30)

    Rails: The hurdle dividing rails where possible moved to provide fresh ground for the first day of this meeting The railing out on the bend after the finish will be removed overnight.

    Weather

    Tuesday 1mm of rainfall Wednesday Dry Thursday 0.8mm of rainfall dry overnight. Friday Dry Forecast Saturday Dry overcast

    Kelso / Sat 28 Feb
    Updated @ Sat 28 Feb

    Going/Track

    Good to Soft, Soft in places (GoingStick: 5.6 on Thursday at 11:30)

    Rails: Rail on both tracks pushed out by 8yds from innermost line to provide fresh ground on bends, adding approx 50yds per circuit.

    Weather

    Dry yesterday and overnight. An overcast milder morning with threat of a rain shower before 9.00am. Remaining overcast all day with any further rain holding off until after racing. Max Temp 8C.

    Newbury / Sat 28 Feb
    Updated @ Fri 27 Feb

    Going/Track

    Hurdle Soft /Good to soft in places Chase Good to soft / soft in places (GoingStick: Hurdle 5.0 Chase 6.0 on Friday at 07:45)

    Rails: Bends will be moved out over night to give fresh lines. The Hurdle course will be 54yds longer and the Chase course will be 20yds per circuit.

    Weather

    Last 24hrs Dry Forecast: Fri Overnight cloudy with drizzle later min +3 Sat Drizzle or light rain am Rain later pm Max 11

ICONS

* – Indicates their having won previously on the going as currently described
T – Indicates a horse having made a round trip of 300 miles or more
H – Indicates horses sporting headgear for the first time (blinkers, hood, cheekpieces, tongue-tie etc)

FINAL FIGURES

DONCASTER 2-00

* – ROBBIE….+9
* – QUICUYO….+9
* – IFANDBUTWHYNOT….-2
* – KINGS GREY….-11
FESTIVE AFFAIR….-16
* – DRESDEN….-25
INDIAN VOYAGE….-40

MY PLAY – I was disappointed with the ground here yesterday. It looked rough and not many handled it. I certainly would’t touch my second rated horse using stolen money after yesterday’s “effort’ and I do expect the winner to be rated horse 1 or 3.

DONCASTER 3-10

T* – CALL THE COPS….+12
* – WALTZ DARLING….+8
KELVINGROVE….-14
T* – SELDOM INN….-17
T* – AL CO….-17
H – CANTLOW….-20
T – BATAVIR….-26

MY PLAY – Top pair for a dutch, a 20/80 my top one and an exotic.

DONCASTER 3-45

T* – CAULFIELDS VENTURE….+10
* – NIGHT IN MILAN….+10
* – STREAM OF WHISKY….+9
* – DROP OUT JOE….-2
T* – SAMINGARRY….-5
T* – MON PARRAIN….-9
AACHEN….-10
* – SUPER DUTY….-19
* – WAYEARD PRINCE….-23
T – FARBREAGA….-33
* – WILLIAM MONEY….-35
THEATRE QUEEN….-40

MY PLAY – This race has given me a Readybrek glow. I will be working with my top three to a dutch, 20/80 CAULFIELDS VENTURE and exotics. It “feels” like a good race and I’m hoping that ground doesn’t have them dancing like cats on a hot tin roof.

KELSO 3-35

OSCAR LATEEN….+8
* – DOUGLAS JULIEN….+5
* – OR DE GRUGY….+3
* – BESCOT SPRINGS….-5
* – RED TANBER….-10
WHAT A DREAM….-23
MONOGRAM….-32
ROMANY RYME….-33
AMETHYST ROSE….-34
LORD REDSGIRTH….-37

MY PLAY – Rated horses 2, 3 and 4 dutched, 20/80 DOUGLAS JULIEN and exotics but it’s not exactly getting the juices flowing and staking won’t cause many ripples in those trading rooms.

KELSO 4-45

* – THE ICE FACTOR….+9
* – STANDINTHEBAND….-5
* – FUNKY MUNKY….-11
* – BALLYVOGUE….-12
LUCEMATIC….-14
* – OMID….-20
GOLANS CHOICE….-24
T – LAIRD 0F MONKSFORD….-24
NEWYEARSRESOLUTION….-30
DOTTIES DILEMMA….-40
RINGAREE ROSIE….-40
QUEENS REGATTA….-40
CRUACHAN….-40
BOLLIN FIONA….-40
CONJOLA….-40
DUN TO PERFECTION….-40

MY PLAY – Top three to what I call my “October Rules”….top three dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics but to my minimal staking.

NEWBURY 1-45

* – LOYAUTE….+5
IRISH BUCCANEER….-4
ALLTHEGEAR NO IDEA….-13
* – FAIRY RATH….-15
LEAVE IT BE….-18
T – LOOKSLIKERAINTED….-25
T* – WINNING SPARK….-25
* – WILY FOX….-25
TOPOLSKI….-25
* – RADMORES REVENGE….-28
PROVO….-31
MIDNIGHT SAIL….-40
LAUGHTON PARK….-40
T – BOTHY….-40
PADDOCKS LOUNGE….-40
T – RULER OF ALL….-40

MY PLAY – It looks competitive enough but something telling me to “move along now, nothing to see here!”….I’ll swerve.

NEWBURY 2-15

THERE’S NO PANIC….+11
* – ROALCO DES FARGES….+10
* – BALLYOLIVER….-1
* – VICTORS SERENADE….-2
* – RELAX….-5
* – TRANQUIL SEA….-7
* – POOLE MASTER….-11
WEST END ROCKER….-13
H* – SOLL….-17
TRIANGULAR….-24
* – GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN….-21
* – MONKERTY TUNKERTY….-25
FOUROFAKIND….-40

MY PLAY – I generally leave what I call “novelty” races alone, such as the veterans races but I thought you might like to see how this came out. Most definitely one I myself will not be betting.

NEWBURY 2-50

FIRST MOHICAN….-1
* – ATTWAAL….-2
BONOBO….-7
* – ALBERT BRIDGE….-16
BABY KING….-17
ARTHUR’S SECRET….-20
ROYAL GUARDSMAN….-21
KIAMA BAY….-30
LIKE SULLY….-30

MY PLAY – I am not sweet on this race at all and will leave it be.

NEWBURY 3-25

* – HEADLY’S BRIDGE….+24
SAINT RALPH….+17
* – ROYAL REGATTA….+10
* – SOUND INVESTMENT….-5
* – BALLYGARVEY….-5
* – EASTER METEOR….-7
* – WESTWARD POINT….-7
* – SIMPLY WINGS….-10
SEVENTH SKY….-21
MIDNIGHT BELLE….-40

MY PLAY – Rated horses 1, 3 and 4 dutched, a 20/80 headlights bridge and exotics.

Have a great day and the best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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