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Today’s Ratings and Advice 02/02/15

Ron RobinsonI’m backing my fair share of fallers right now. I thought Heronshaw was running a good race on Saturday when that one went base over apex and yesterday, Sir Valentino was moving up to challenge when he turned over….leaving my bottom two rated horses to fight it out.

The best race of the day (that one below), saw the figures performing superbly well.

MUSSELBURGH 3-00

T* – SEA LORD….+18 – 3RD 4/1
T – RETRIEVE….+13 – WON 13/2
T* – CINDERS AND ASHES….+11
T* – NATHANS PRIDE….+10
T* – STRONGPOINT….+7
T – ZAIDIYN….+2
* – GOLD FUTURES….+1
* – MEADOWCROFT BOY….-4
T – STREETS OF NEWYORK….-5
T* – IT’S A MANS WORLD….-13
T* – COOL MACAVITY….-15
T* – SWEET DEAL….-15
MIDNIGHT GAME….-21
T – A BOY NAMED SUZI….-40
T – VODKA WELLS….-40

I couldn’t get a better figure for the winner. Only four runs on the board over obstacles (the last before yesterday coming in July last year), but he was just the type you need for that track and, as a once 113 rated flat horse, proved that this place really is a track you want to be sending ex-flat horses to run over hurdles.

For me the moral winner was my top rated who was giving the best part of two stone to his stablemate and has only been beaten just over three lengths….but try telling the layers to pay out on morals!

My figures for that last race were so close to giving me another 20/1 winner in the dutch (for those that played it), this weekend

MUSSELBURGH 4-30

* – FLY VINNIE….+10
T* – KRUZHLININ….+10 – 2ND 20/1
T* – ROBBIE….+9
T* – TRUSTAN TIMES….+9
* – ARCTIC COURT….-2
* – BELL WEIR….-12
T* – RUN RUCTIONS RUN….-19
T – DAWALAN….-27
T – CAPELLANUS….-30
T – BOTHY….-40
T – EDEYMI….-40
CALL ME BUBBLES….-40

A sign the McCain horses are beginning to find their stride? Probably not.

I watched an interview with Charlie Mann on RUK after his had ben beaten in and earlier hurdle race and he was describing the ground as “dead”, which didn’t suit. I listened to another trainer, whose horse had won, and she was saying she had brought horses up for the good ground….guess if you win it’s good, if you don’t, it’s not?

I was watching Charlie during that interview and thinking if you told him a really good joke he’d say something like, “really funny that”, dead pan look on his face, then turn and walk away. Somewhere inside he’d be in hysterics but, you’d probably need to take x-rays to find it.

If he could tell jokes he’d make Jack Dee look more like Lee Evans!

When he has a good horse he gets the job done though.

TODAY

Just Musselburgh today and right now and whilst they inspect again I expect it to go ahead. I was listening to the weather forecast whilst working away this morning and if “they” are right, we are in for a serious cold snap. I’m not sure how bad it has been by you but where I am it’s been a relatively mild winter so far.

Hopefully “they” are just scaremongering….again.

Brian Ellison has again come “loaded”, a runner in every race bar the 3-30 and I cannot imagine many jumpers are left in his yard right now!

He came up empty-handed yesterday but I think he’ll trouser one this afternoon. Hopefully it’s that one in my last rated race!

On the website you may have noticed we have a section for racecourses. In here I’ll be having all the contact details for each track plus, I’ll also be advising you of the kind of horse you need to be betting.

It probably will not have been lost on anyone that the three hurdle races worth most by way of prize money at Musselburgh yesterday, were won by ex-flat race horses and, as mentioned above, they are the type you need to be looking for in those races there.

I will be in Liverpool this afternoon so will not see much, if anything but on my return I will be prepping tomorrows work and before 7-00pm you will receive the first of the evening Newsletters, which will contain my preliminary work.

I again posted on on Facebook yesterday (this does not happen every day, only when I find one worthy of posting up), and it was BENEFIT IN KIND.

My final figures indicate it’s a winner waiting to happen and I wish that were a fact but, many times we’ve seen this kind fail to live up to its billing (it’s that flesh and blood, don’t run on rails thing).

I am on straight win though.

I hope you find the information contained within it helpful.

If you would like to see something added to that please let me know and, if it’s “doable”, I’ll be only to happy to post it up.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Musselburgh / Mon 02 Feb
    Updated @ Sun 01 Feb

    Going/Track

    Good PRECAUTIONARY INSPECTION 8am

    Rails: Bottom Hurdle bend out from the inner adding 6yds to every hurdle circuit. Chase distances as advertised.

  • Weather

    Above freezing Overnight +1 at 6.30am Sunday – Cold wind sunny spells +3 overnight -1/2. Monday – Long sunny spells +3. Fleece covers will be put Friday/Saturday Landings Take offs covered from Wednesday.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race

T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

MUSSELBURGH 2-00

* – BENEFIT IN KIND….+15
BEAU DANDY….-7
T* – SADDLERS DEAL….-9
PRESENT LODGER….-11
THE FLAMING MATRON….-13
* – SADDLE PACK….-25
T – SILENT CLICHE….-40

MY PLAY – I hate “good things” as they are invariably are not. I’m on straight win here and BENEFIT IN KIND around 4.1 as I type.

I’ll dutch with SADDLERS DEAL and have an exotic, just in case it goes pear-shaped.

MUSSELBURGH 3-30

* – RYTON RUNNER….+4
* – WILLIAM MONEY….+1
* – CLAUDE CARTER….-5
ALWAYS TIPSY….-10
* – SOLWAY SAM….-17
DOTTIES DILEMMA….-40
DUN TO PERFECTION….-40

MY PLAY – I have mentioned this many times but my top rated was one David O’Meara and I discussed buying a few years ago when we were looking top purchase our first hurdler. He advised me against purchasing an ex-Gosden horse and we let it go.

It’s a year ago this month since he last won a race (here), under today’s jockey. He is what he is and will win in his turn….today?

I’ll have a top two dutch, go 20/80 he can repeat that course and distance win and play an exotic.

MUSSELBURGH 4-00

T* – RED INCA….+10
H* – WHY BUT WHY….+3
* – ENDEAVOR….-5
* – HONOURABLE GENT….-6
* – NEVILLE WOODS….-11
URBAN KODE….-18
T – SLIPPER SATIN….-25
BALLYVOGLE….-38
BOB’S LEGEND….-40
T – GLENCONKEYNE….-40

MY PLAY – Top three to a dutch, a 20/80 RED INCA and exotics.

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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