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Today’s Ratings and Advice 01/02/15

Ron RobinsonNot sure whether to laugh or cry.

I watched the early races and decided Ffos Las and Sandown would not be for me. The CoC at Sandown declared the ground there as having changed from soft, good to soft in places to heavy, soft in places. That effectively rendered my figures useless….or so I thought.

Ffos Las was horrible to watch. The marathon there left a nasty taste in the mouth and for the first time I found my self agreeing with Matt Chapman of ATR, that what happened there was not good for the image of racing.

I recently posted on Facebook that the Racing Post carried a great story about Munkerty Tunkerty, who had suffered an horrendous injury and had been nursed back to full health by Jess Woodward, who herself had been in the wars and it was a story that should have given those who try to get our sport banned some food for thought.

Yesterday a jockey made a decision, that being making a completely knackered horse, that had pulled up before the last, turn around and then jump that fence to collect the £5k second prize. It looked ugly, and it was.

The ground there was so bad that just one horse finished….before he made that decision.

The rules of racing actually state that if a horse pulls up, it is officially out of the race and cannot then complete the race….unlike a horse that refuses at a fence. That can then be turned around and an effort to complete permitted.

To my eyes….and that of the Racing Post race reporter, he pulled up. So, why has he been officially declared 2nd?

No fewer than 17 horses pulled up there yesterday, of the 56 that raced over obstacles. Enough said about that track.

Sandown. I have no idea what rain/snow/fog/ etc they had but the going there was nothing like as described when I produced my work. As Rory tweeted me (morning again, Rory!), “Something of a joke that the word “good” ever sneaked into that going description. You need to make a CoC blacklist.”

If I were to produce that list the more exclusive of both lists I would have, would be those not on it!

I thought Champagne West was a decent bet yesterday but I watched him hardly jump a twig before coming down….which was a certainty. Was it the track, which is a jumpers track, or was it he just could not jump out of that ground?

I would’t say I was exactly congratulating myself for not betting there after that….but I was looking for a rope, a stool and a volunteer to kick that stool away, after this:

SANDOWN 3-00

* – INVICTA LAKE….+6 – WON 20/1
* – EL DANCER….-6 – 2ND 16/1
* – JUNCTION FOURTEEN….-10 – 5TH 7/1
* – ANTEROS….-17 – 6TH 15/2
MR GREY….-21 – 4TH 12/1
* – SAFFRON WELLS….-25 – 7TH 7/1
CADOUDOFF….-27
MIHAAR….-32
POLAMCO….-34
IMPERIAL LEADER….-40
T – HANSUPFORDETROIT….-40
T – PAY THE KING….-40

MY PLAY – If you get to hear the Podcast you’ll hear both Sean and I say how much we both like the look of Polamco but I have what I have now and will work with the top three rated horses. Dutch, 20/80 my top one and exotics but I’ll not be getting overly involved.

The top six rated horses came home in the first seven past the winning post, the top two produced a nice enough 290/1 CSF….and I was not happy. The rated race after that, I was sure I’d done the right
thing again!

Decision making, eh!

TODAY

I try to get my head around Musselburgh but very rarely can do so. It puts on good racing and trainers from all over the country support….which is brilliant. Now I’m trying to explain this rationally but I do not like betting on racing there. It’s probably a great day out but look at it today.

We have, taking the Hunter Chase out of the equation, 52 runners competing in seven races but, Brian Ellison is responsible for 14 of them.

In the main race of the day, the 3-00, he is responsible for 1/3rd of the runners.

I have made the decision to simply have a couple of 20/80’s those two top rated horses indicated T*….and that’s it.

The T Factor is more or less irrelevant today, as you’ll see when you look at the figures.

I’m also very suspicious of the going description.

They are calling it good, good to soft in places)…yet they have an inspection at 8-00am.

Now, all I have heard about the Scottish weather is that has not been great! Can it really be “good”?

My figures are below and I am happy enough with them but please be sure to make sure that ground is as described.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Musselburgh / Sun 01 Feb
    Updated @ Sun 01 Feb

    Going/Track

    Good, Good to Soft places RACING GOES AHEAD FROST FREE

    Rails: All Chase Fences and Hurdles have been moved on to Fresh Ground. Bottom Hurdle bend out from the inner adding 6yds to every hurdle circuit. Chase distances as advertised.

  • Weather

    Above freezing Overnight +1 at 6.30am Sunday – Cold wind sunny spells +3 overnight -1/2. Monday – Long sunny spells +3. Fleece covers will be put Friday/Saturday Landings Take offs covered from Wednesday.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race

T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today

H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

MUSSELBURGH 1-30

T* – SIR VALENTINO….+19
T* – KIE….+13
T* – ULTIMATE….+12
* – QUITO DU TRESOR….+8
T* – SWIFT ARROW….+8
T* – BUTHELEZI….+2
T – SWALEDALE LAD….-2
T* – IFANDBUTWHYNOT….-7

MUSSELBURGH 3-00

T* – SEA LORD….+18
T – RETRIEVE….+13
T* – CINDERS AND ASHES….+11
T* – NATHANS PRIDE….+10
T* – STRONGPOINT….+7
T – ZAIDIYN….+2
* – GOLD FUTURES….+1
* – MEADOWCROFT BOY….-4
T – STREETS OF NEWYORK….-5
T* – IT’S A MANS WORLD….-13
T* – COOL MACAVITY….-15
T* – SWEET DEAL….-15
MIDNIGHT GAME….-21
T – A BOY NAMED SUZI….-40
T – VODKA WELLS….-40

MUSSELBURGH 4-30

* – FLY VINNIE….+10
T* – KRUZHLININ….+10
T* – ROBBIE….+9
T* – TRUSTAN TIMES….+9
* – ARCTIC COURT….-2
* – BELL WEIR….-12
T* – RUN RUCTIONS RUN….-19
T – DAWALAN….-27
T – CAPELLANUS….-30
T – BOTHY….-40
T – EDEYMI….-40
CALL ME BUBBLES….-40

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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