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Today’s Ratings and Advice 29/01/15

Ron RobinsonA grand decision made not to get involved yesterday.

In the first race at Leicester their were close to 90 lengths between 1st and last, in the second they gave up waiting for the last horse to get home and just record 99+, and that was the way of it right through the afternoon. That was seriously hard work for man and beast.

It was no different at Newcastle either.

I posted up my thoughts on the Champion Chase in the Cheltenham Files for those wishing to get involved ante-post. I cannot see any way he will start longer than he is now and it’s quite possible he’ll start shorter, once all evidence of the wellbeing of others has been assessed.

If you watch either of the racing channels you’ll see it’s now all about Cheltenham. The racing between now and that day in March will not matter anything like as much as it should but that’s the way of it at this time of year.

TODAY

Our two 500 Club members go racing with Blue Buttons and if my figures are right, they’ll have a brilliant day out.

These were my figures for her last race:

WINCANTON 2-40

* – BLUE BUTTONS….+16
* – EARTHMOVES….+9
PROVO….+9
CHASE THE WIND….-1
H – SPORTING BOY….-4
* – PRIDE OF BATTLE….-6
* – VOLT FACE….-19
* – UNION SAINT….-28
RONALDINHO….-28
CADOUDOFF….-40
OSCAR PRAIRIE….-40

These are today’s figures:

WINCANTON 3-40

* – BLUE BUTTONS…+18
* – EARTHMOVES….+9
ROTHMAN….+2
* – DUBAWI ISLAND….-9
* – SHAMMICK BOY….-12
RIVER DEEP….-13
* – SIDBURY HILL….-25
* – HARRISTOWN….-37
* – UNION SAINT….-38
HERONRY….-40

A second Newsletter will be going out to you today inviting you to get involved in the competitions we have set up, inviting you to read Tony’s Davidson’s new “Weekend Preview” over at The Goal Posts in which he looks at those games he will not be betting on but introduces you to a few things that might help you decide whether or not you should get involved.

Around the middle of last year I mentioned to Sean after a Podcast, that I would be monitoring the performance of Mahler as a sire of NH horses this season. He’s done ok so far with a couple of winners from around 14 runs and plenty of placed horses.

I noticed last night that Harry has a Mahler running in the Wincanton Bumper, HE’S A CHARMER, and so I fired off an e-mail to him (it as a bit late in the evening to call), asking him about it.

I got an e-mail back (he’s a man of few words!), at 5-48am that simply said:

“Morning Ron,
Yes he’s an interesting sire for sure. Thank you, fingers crossed for a good day!”

Interesting to note Philip Hobbs also runs a “MAHLER” in the opener there, SCOOP THE POT, owned by JP McManus and ridden by AP.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Towcester / Thu 29 Jan
    Updated @ Wed 28 Jan

    Going/Track

    SOFT (GoingStick: 7.6 on Wednesday at 09:00)

    Rails: Chase & Hurdle Courses on shared bends. Ground drying but due to previous frosts, it will be quite tacky and holding.

  • Weather

    1.5mm Rain Overnight. Forecast for possible light showers this morning, then overcast, remaining dry. Wednesday Night & Thursday feeling much colder, Temp 1 to 2c, with wind chill of between-4c to -6c.

  • Wincanton / Thu 29 Jan
    Updated @ Wed 28 Jan

    Going/Track

    Soft (GoingStick: Chase 6.5, Hurdle 6.4 on Tuesday at 16:45)

    Rails: The Hurdle on the stables bend will be omitted

  • Weather

    1mm rain overnight. Forecast: Wednesday Showers (3mm) Thursday Dry start, rain /sleet showers from 11am, possible 30mph winds No Inspection planned but will keep an eye on forecast

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race

T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

TOWCESTER 2-20

* – NEWTON THISTLE….+20
* – WICKLEWOOD….+18
COSWAY SPIRIT….+12
MONTY’S REVENGE….+11
* – TAKE THE MICK….+10
* – MUSICAL WEDGE….-8
* – VICTORY GUNNER….-10
BEBINN….-15
HERECOMESTHEHOLLOW….-17
JOLLY BOYS OUTING….-20
COOLKING….-33
CHARMING LAD….-40

MY PLAY – I mooted on Facebook yesterday that the preliminary prep indicated NEWTON THISTLE was interesting at that point and he’s even more so now. I’m just hoping the going is as described because I have a good feeling about today’s figures.

Here I’d be expecting the winner to come from rated horses 1, 2 and 5….the dutch, 20/80 and exotics will certainly be checked over.

TOWCESTER 3-20

* – IN THE CROWD….+15
* – ASSIREM….+8
* – FLYING LIGHT….-8
TWELVE STRINGS….-17
KATARRHINI….-24
L STIG….-30
ROUGH KING….-40
L’ASSOMMIER….-40
BRAVE HOLLOW….-40

MY PLAY – Top three for the dutch, a 20/80 IN THE CROWD and exotics.

WINCANTON 3-10

* – SHOEGAZER….+10
* – ATLANTIC ROLLER….+9
* – NOTARFBAD….+9
* – TOLKIENS TANGO….+5
* – DRUMSHAMBO….-5
BINCOMBE….-7
SIMPLY WINGS….-18
VIOLETS BOY….-24
* – CLOUDY BOB….-24
* – SAINT RALPH….-29
* – DAYS AHEAD….-40

MY PLAY – Top three for the lot. My top rated is a big price if the numbers are right but since running a cracker in the Byrne Group Plate at the 2013 Festival, he’s become very brittle and has pulled up in two of his last four races. They must think he’s still got something to be in here off top weight but I’m keeping stakes down. Dutch, 20/80 SHOEGAZER and exotics.

WINCANTON 3-40

* – BLUE BUTTONS…+18
* – EARTHMOVES….+9
ROTHMAN….+2
* – DUBAWI ISLAND….-9
* – SHAMMICK BOY….-12
RIVER DEEP….-13
* – SIDBURY HILL….-25
* – HARRISTOWN….-37
* – UNION SAINT….-38
HERONRY….-40

MY PLAY – I’m working with just that top pair. As is usual, Harry is just being Harry and will not say to us to get a second mortgage and lump it on bit for sure, if my figures are right, we have a great chance of following up. It is not lost on me, however, that Paul Nicholls takes us on again with Earthmoves and last time out that one was punted to the exclusion of everything else. If the winner is out side that pair I’m dropping a few quid here.

A dutch, a good 20/80 BLUE BUTTONS and an exotic.

If I opt to check out those tricasts/trifectas then it’s DUBAWI ISLAND that will come in for that one.

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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