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Today’s Ratings and Advice 05/01/15

Ron RobinsonToday we come right back down to earth. Normality returns and I’m now looking forward to seeing in place the plans I have for this year. I’ll be sending you my wish list later today.

Why you and not Santa? Sorry if this comes as a surprise to anyone but he’s not a subscribed member of Post Racing just yet and I guess until I start covering reindeer racing in Lapland he’s not likely to come on board.

Seriously, I’ve said this many times before and do so again now, this goes nowhere (“this” being Post Racing), without subscribed members because the only money we have to work with comes from you.

I’d like to think we’ve done ok with it so far but when you read of what I want to happen over these next 12 months, I sincerely hope you feel we have a drum worth banging.

We took the tree down yesterday, the house is now my workplace again and I honestly am raring to go.

Last year has been written off, we have a new one to work with so, let’s make it happen.

TODAY

I’m looking to get a handle on the Cheltenham Bumper. I already know an Irish horse will win it, I just have to get my stuff together and work out which one. we will have seen it already. Last night I posted up my Supreme Novices Hurdle ante-post play and if I can spot the diamond in the dirt I’ll get that Bumper runner up….not the runner-up, you understand!

Like I say it’s back to normal now and so is the Monday racing. two meetings, seven rated races, a couple OF INTEREST and hopefully all is well with the world.

GARY’S STATS

Gary has posted up all of his findings for the last week and they can all be found on the home page so feel free to pop over there, see what’s working and what’s best left alone when looking for a way to work with my figures and hopefully we’ll keep the layers scratching their heads wondering what’s happening.

SEAN TRIVASS

Sean has been in ripping good form lately and Saturday was another good day for him.

This was a cracker!

“Two bets will do for me, both a lot riskier than normal, and starting on the polytrack (sorry Ron), at Lingfield as early as the 12.20pm. Somehow, I rather doubt the powers at the head of Godolphin had planned for their unraced son of New Approach (and Epsom Derby entry) Monein would debut in a Class Five ten furlong maiden on the all-weather in January, but here he is raring to go and with Adam Kirby in the saddle. A half brother to both Castlereagh and Manjakani, who both picked up Racing Post ratings of over 100, he will need to be rated less than 70 to take this at a guess in which case even if he isn’t fully tuned up this ought to be a formality”

WON – 9/2 > 3/1

Top shout, Sean!

You can read his work only on the website every Friday so make sure you pop over to the website this week to see just what he’s got on offer.

PODCAST SUCCESS

If you have yet to listen to the Podcast, you are missing a serious piece of Post Racing information and advice.

In the one before Christmas I advised Bayan was the most likely winner of the Ladbroke Hurdle…won 14/1.

On Friday afternoon we posted up this weeks efforts and those that tuned in would have heard me saying just how much I fancied UNIONISTE in the Sandown 3-35.

Pricewise, Tom Segal of Racing Post, posted it up as his “banner” tip on the Saturday and the 6/1 disappeared faster than the ice cube in my Edradour.

Dave Cook posted probably the most appropriate comment on the Post Racing Facebook wall after the horse won very cosy….”Boom”….

Kerry, our competition winner, had a £10 bet placed on it and became the second successive winner to get a draw from that bet….£45 via PayPal …and that’s £195 in prize money snaffled off Ladbrokes and given back to our members.

This weeks question is:

Name the race!

Her ex-husband was placed in it
Her son was placed in it
She won it twice.

Do you know the race in question? If so, please send your answer to contact@postracing.net by Thursday to have your name in the draw.

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Musselburgh / Mon 05 Jan
    Updated @ Sun 04 Jan

    Going/Track

    Soft Good to Soft in Places (GoingStick: 6.4 on Sunday at 09:45)

    Rails: Hurdle bend on inner line Distances as advertised Split Chase Bend distances as advertised.

  • Weather

    Clear Night above Freezing Forecast: Sunday – Sunny Cool more cloud later 5c then 3c overnight Monday – Cloudy and milder Looks dry 10c

  • Lingfield Park / Mon 05 Jan
    Updated @ Sun 04 Jan

    Going/Track

    Heavy (GoingStick: 5.2 on Sunday at 07:00)

    Rails: Stands bend now common. Rail movement adding Ch +10yds/circ and Hur +25yds/circ.

  • Weather

    9.4mm rain in total yesterday. F’cast; Dry and sunny for today. Monday looks mainly dry but with the risk of a little drizzle.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race

T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

LINGFIELD 2-10

ROUQUINE SAUVAGE….-34
CLARA PEGGOTTY….-37
LINDSAY’S DREAM….-40
T – LIGHTS OF BROADWAY….-40
REALTA MO CROI….-40
BARTON ROSE….-40

MY PLAY – When you first look at this race your first impression is, “doesn’t look to bad”. The top four on the card all have a nice looking set of form figures but then you start looking at the things that matter. ground first….they have tried 17 times already to win on heavy…failed. They have tried 40 times to win over this trip….Lindsay’s Dream has managed 2 from 19 shots at it and my top rated has won one of her six. Only Lindsay’s Dream has attempted to win here before…failed twice.

My top rated has as much chance as any, that’s true but the thought of taking 8/11 to find out sends shivers down the old spine.

Not a shekel will be parted with here.

LINGFIELD 2-40

* – SANDS COVE….+11
* – GORE’S ISLAND….+9
* – PADDY THE STOUT….-5
GRAB THE GLORY….-16
MARIE DES ANGES….-19
FUTURE GUILDED….-25
WICKLEWOOD….-31
NOZIC….-40
T – LAC SACRE….-40

MY PLAY – Happy to go top three dutch, a 20/80 SANDS COVE with exotics….absolutely impossible to rate FUTURE GUILDED properly and if he comes good then it’s bye bye money.

LINGFIELD 3-10

* – DYNAMIC IDOL….+9
* – PEQUENO DIABLO….-1
T – GRACIE B….-10
* – JOIN THE NAVY….-15
WARSAW PACT….-30
MACCABEES….-31
H – DUDE ALERT….-32
ASKER….-40
NOUHAILLAS….-40
CHENDIYR….-40

MY PLAY – My top rated has a course win and a distance win in the book and I’m happy to go 20/80 that one. My second highest rated is running from out of the handicap but distance and ground are right and the fact Tim Vaughan is sending his handicap debutante, GRACIE B, here and upped in trip, too. I cannot get anything like an accurate figure for that one.

Low stake that top one and that’s my lot.

MUSSELBURGH 1-30

T* – BLACKWATER KING….+13
RED TANBER….+12
KAI BROON….-6
SHINE A DIAMOND….-8
* – AYE WELL….-12
T* – YOURHOLIDAYISOVER….-25
COUSIN GUILLAUME….-27
SADDLE PACK….-40

MY PLAY – Still not happy to see a McCain horse topping my numbers, despite a good run by Bourne a couple of days ago.

They had a 1-4 favourite struggle home on the same day and something just isn’t right there.

This is a race I may just leave alone as my 2nd highest rated has shown clear signs he’s very much on the decline and if Lucy alexander gets his head in front today I will be very surprised.

Half of this field failed to complete last time up, including my top rated. Only one of the other four finished in the first three.

Best watched.

MUSSELBURGH 2-00

* – WILDE PASTURES….+10
* – ELLISTRIN BELLE….+9
* – URBAN KODE….-4
HONORABLE GENT….-14
CLAUDE CARTER….-27
T – DRY YOUR EYES….-29
VIKING CHIEF….-29
JABUS….-33
PTOMAC….-40
CATCHTHEMOONLIGHT….-40
DEFINITELY GLAD….-40

MY PLAY – My top three will be called to arms. Dutch, a 20/80 WILDE PASTURES and exotics. This has a competitive feel to it for a Class 4 and the right three sit top of my numbers…I hope!

MUSSELBURGH 2-30

UNEX CANALETTO….+9
BALLYTHOMAS….-9
AIAAM AL NOOMAS….-19
VISION DE LA VIE….-35
BRACING….-40
QUEST MAGIC….-40

MY PLAY – Not one of these has won on this ground, a win over the distance is not on a single CV and the four that have tried to win at Musselburgh in the past all failed. It’s a race I simply cannot even contemplate playing. If my figures are right James Ewart has a winner  – if track, trip and ground issues can be overcome.

MUSSELBURGH 3-00

* – DREAM FLYER….+15
* – LIVELY BARON….+12
BLENHEIM BROOK….+7
* – LORD WISHES….+/-0
ISLAND HEIGHTS….-6
T* – ROYAL PLAYER….-10

MY PLAY – I have to work with my top two but I’m acutely aware that Hobbs/Johnson are trundling all the way up from Somerset (a near 800 mile round trip), and won’t have defeat on their minds at all. The horse rates as he rates though and nowt I can do about it.

Dutch DREAM FLYER  and LIVELY BARON, 20/80 my top one and the exotics.

Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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