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Welsh Grand National Profiled 27/12/14

Ron RobinsonThe use of statistics to find winners doesn’t sit easy with a few but, it works. Should I have compromised last week and put up Bayan as my profile horse? My suggestion is no, I shouldn’t. I like to work with 10 years or more empirical data and that race gave me eight only. Enough to sort it out for the Podcast (to a degree), but as I said during that broadcast, I preferred our podcast winners money to go on my top rated….which also turned out to be Bayan.

This race is, as I said last year, difficult to find the winner of using Ratings and I already know in my mind that my top rated horse will not be the profile horse. With and tissue position suggest Shotgun Paddy has no chance. We’ll see.

I want to seat this profile off by taking only horses having had a win over this track before. Last season it proved spot on and at that time 11 of the previous 16 had won at Chepstow. Now it is 12 from 17.

My first shortlist is:

SHOTGUN PADDY
MONBEG DUDE
MOUNTAINOUS
HAWKES POINT
VICTOR’S SERENADE
REBECCA’S CHOICE
AMIGO
WOODFORD COUNTY

The age grouping I want onside are those in the 7-8-y-o bracket and from that first shortlist I’m plucking

SHOTGUN PADDY
AMIGO
WOODFORD COUNTY

I’ve already suggested Shotgun Paddy cannot win this and he’s no Carvels Hill, the last horse to hump that kind of weight to victory in this race.

That means it’s down to:

AMIGO
WOODFORD COUNTY

I’m going to dutch that pair and set up an exotic plus, use all three for combo tricasts.

If I was looking for one to have as my 20/80 and as the Post Racing profile horse then it would be:

WOODFORD COUNTY – 20/80

He is 2-3 on this ground they’ll have today, has a 50% strike rate at the track and he carries the weight I’d be looking for by virtue of his riders claim. Six of the last 10 winners carried no more than 10st 5lb and Michael Nolan’s 3lb claim drags him into that bracket.

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