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Today’s Ratings and Advice 27/12/14

Ron RobinsonWhen I have a day like Boxing Day to work with, preparation starts about a week before it arrives.

I am, by nature, an extremely optimistic person (although my fears for racing in general might not always come across that way!), and it drives a lot of people nuts that my glass is always half full.

But you look at the potential damage 22 rated races might cause to our profitability, the stats, my mind and you do start looking over your shoulder. No room for faint hearts in this game though and if you’ve nailed colours to masts, you have to trust in your ability to read a race.

I had spent around 30 hours getting that lot together and when you have put in a shift like that you “man up” and get the betting boots on….or you curl up into a foetal position and hope it goes away quickly.

I had my biggest bet of 2014 on Batavir. I knew a few days ago that was winning if nothing unforeseen happened, and I made a point of letting 500 Club and Site Members know of this on the morning of Christmas Eve. Sorry about the price but with Sean Trivass also posting it up on his Christmas Eve offering (a neck away from a treble – unlucky, sir!), it really did look like every man, his dog and his missus was on. If you make a profit in excess of 100% on a single play though, you’ve done good work.

What came before and after that though was quite surreal.

With so many people now taking my work I am extremely conscious of the fact you are trusting my work with your money and if I didn’t genuinely believe what I do works, I would never let you subscribe for it. I do actually have a conscience and when we have a bad day, I, despite my optimism, suffer.

When we have days like yesterday though, I’m on it like you would not believe. I go to bed anticipating the monks kicking off in the corner again so that I can get back to my desk at 5-00am and try to do it all again.

We had a 15 minute period yesterday (10 minutes before 1-00pm and 5 after), when the layers must have thought the end of their world was nigh.

Three OF INTEREST selections belted in, 3/1, 3/1 and a well backed 5/4, and the Ratings for the Wincanton 1-05pm race provided a lovely 7/1 top rated winner, a 78/1 Exacta, a 43/1 CSF and, of course, the dutch.

Just 15 minutes later Drombeg West ran a blinder for us, finishing 2nd @ 16/1….if that has won then I would have started believing in Santa again!

I knew we were in for a good day though, when my figures for the very first rated race, a mucky little handicap seller at Market Rasen produced a top three 1, 2, 3 and provided me personally with a 416/1 trifecta, the 255/1 tricast, 137/1 exacta and the 86/1 CSF. a nice enough top rated winner (11/2), the dutch and Uncle Tom Cobbley.

The one area of what I’m doing right now that interests me the most is the performance of those top rated horse having obtained the T* icons and yesterday just one horse had that attached, Dolatulo.

Not sure if you saw the race but I was always confident we had a 14/1 winner on our hands, so well did he travel through it, and after jumping two out he had them spread out all over Yorkshire.

That section of Gary’s Stats is going to make for superb reading next week.

It’s not just horse racing that is giving 500 Club and Site Members plenty of profitable days right now though….read what comes next!

THE GOAL POSTS

Tony Davidson had discussed the game between Burnley and Liverpool today and posted up a play for us on Christmas Eve.

I had missed his previous call and was annoyed at myself for doing that.

I was not going to miss this one….these were his words:

“Trying to find a match to bet on at this time of year is difficult. With so many games in quick succession it’s hard to know whose legs will give way, which teams will have to field a player not quite on blob and suffering from playing 3 games in a week and 2 in 3 days.

The game I am looking at for a bet on Boxing Day though is that between Burnley and Liverpool.

My team have been taking some almighty stick in recent months but the problem is quite simply Liverpool has not had a striker. The midfield has had nobody to play to and chances created have been very thin on the ground.

I like looking at the form of teams going into a match and right now these two register identical figures over their last 6 games. Both have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 but what has got me thinking are these facts.

Liverpool got beaten 3-0 by Manchester Utd at Old Trafford but if you saw the game you will know that if Liverpool had been able to take their chances, they would have drawn at the very least. In terms of shots on goal they produced more than the home side and the Utd goalkeeper came away with the man of the match award.

Against Arsenal when they drew 2-2 they got some reward for their efforts and showed a much better attitude, actually looking the better side still when down to 10 men.

Let’s just say I was encouraged but, more encouraged still by these facts.

Since moving Sterling up front to play as makeshift striker in those last 2 games, they have produced 19 shots on target. In the four games prior to that change of formation, they had managed just 9 shots on target in total.

All season long pundits have been talking about Liverpools lack of goals but they have scored more than Newcastle, who sit just above them, they have scored just 1 less than both Spurs and Swansea and I’m starting to feel good about my team again. When Sturridge gets back and if we can get a few results before then, we have as good a chance as anyone of getting fourth spot.

Burnley are finally finding their feet in this league but they are still poor. They are getting by on sheer guts and determination but eventually that’s never going to be enough.

You might think a draw would be the best bet here but after the way they finished off the game against Arsenal Liverpool will be up for this and feeling more optimistic and positive about a game for the first time since September.

MY BETS:

LIVERPOOL TO WIN – 2 POINTS @ 1.84 (Betfair) – WON
LIVERPOOL TO WIN 1-0 – 0.5 POINT @ 9.2 (Betfair) – WON
LIVERPOOL TO WIN 2-0 – 0.5 POINT @ 11 (Betfair)”

He is, without a doubt, the best I have ever seen at doing what he does.

If you are reading this and hold 500 club or Site Member status and are not using the work of the guys tipping over at The Goal Posts, why not?

You receive that information as part of your packages so my advice is to take advantage of it.

If you are reading this as a Weekend Club Member, I would seriously consider upgrading.

TODAY

Nothing like as busy but some cracking good racing to play around with this afternoon. I’m finalising my profiling for the Welsh grand National this morning as I wanted as accurate a going guide as I’m likely to get and the rains arrived to turn it so, another good decision made.

That will be on the website by 11-00am latest.

At 4-05PM I’ll be in my local cinema watching Paddington….Karen and I are babysitting the grandkids as their parents enjoy a much earned break away tonight (we got them a Spa break at a local hotel for Christmas!), and the thought of my son, a Bootle lad, having a facial scrub (or whatever it is they’ll get), has me chuckling….”I’m from Bootle, dad, I don’t do “products!”….today he does!

ASSUMPTIONS:

  • Chepstow / Sat 27 Dec
    Updated @ Sat 27 Dec

    Going/Track

    Heavy, Soft in places 15mm of rain on Friday Dry on Wednesday & Thursday 5mm of rain Tuesday night (GoingStick: Chase 4.4, Hurdle 4.3 on Saturday at 06:30)

    Rails: Both bends set up on inside line providing fresh ground.

  • Weather

    Forecast: Mainly dry with sunny spells, max temp 6C.

  • Kempton Park / Sat 27 Dec
    Updated @ Sat 27 Dec

    Going/Track

    Soft (GoingStick: N/A on Friday at 22:00)

    Rails: All rail moved onto fresh ground. Chase Course on inside configuration and Hurdle Course on outside configuration; all distances as advertised

  • Weather

    8mm of rain overnight. Forecast: Saturday- Sunny intervals and very windy.

  • Wetherby / Sat 27 Dec
    Updated @ Sat 27 Dec

    Going/Track

    Soft, Good to Soft in places

    Rails: Eastern ‘away’ bend: will be operating as separate bends as normal and the racing line of both bends are 12yds out from the inner most position. Western ‘home’ bend: will be operating as shared bend as normal and the racing line is 20 yards from the inner most position. Hurdles are located next to the canterdown in home straight and next to Steeplechase fences in back straight.

  • Weather

    10mm rain overnight. No Snow, no frost. overnight low of +1C and remains that at present. Forecast a clear and sunny day, but max temp of +2C. Ground might ease further as rain overnight rains gets in.

*  – indicates winner on ground at the time of rating the race

T – indicates having travelled more than 150 miles to race today
H – Indicates wearing some form of headgear for first time today

KEMPTON 2-15

CANTLOW….+9
BALLINVARRIG….-9
LOOSE CHIPS….-11
AMERICAN SPIN….-19
COWARDS CLOSE….-24
* – WINGS OF SMOKE….-25
* – TALES OF MILAN….-35
SHANGANI….-37
SILVER COMMANDER….-39
CLOUDY BOB….-40

MY PLAY – First thought was…leave it. I’m going to run with that first thought. It just feels “weird”, look weird and the result will, quite possibly, be weird.

KEMPTON 2-50

MAYFAIR MUSIC….+10
WOODLAND WALK….+9
* – MOLLY’S A DIVA….-5
* – KESHI PEARL….-15
* – CANNON FODDER….-18
* – MINI MUCK….-25
T* – LAND OF VIC….-25
* – LADY KATHLEEN….-32
TEMPEST RIVER….-40

MY PLAY – Kim Bailey struggles for winners here and I do like the look of my top one but, I have what I have, I work the way I do and so it’s 3, 4 and 5 dutched, MOLLY’S A DIVA gets my own 20/80 and exotics.

KEMPTON 3-25

SWEET DEAL….+10
ALBERT BRIDGE….+10
* – BENBECULLA….+10
* – CHATEZ….+9
* – STARLUCK….+9
* – HURRICANE HOLLOW….-5
* – PASS THE TIME….-15
* – WAR SINGER….-22
CHESTERFIELD….-28
* – VIOLET DANCER….-28
CLOONACOOL….-29
* – CHESIL BEACH BOY….-35
LE FIN BOIS….-40
T – ABSOLUTLYFANTASTIC….-40

MY PLAY – Very tight at the top but it’s rated horses 3, 4 and 5 for me….dutch, 20/80 BENBECULLA and exotics.

CHEPSTOW 1-25

* – BYGONES SOVEREIGN….+13
* – SERIENSHOCK….+10
* – KATKEAU….+10
* – AWAYWITHTHEGREYS….+8
* – BROWNVILLE….-5
* – WYCHWOODS BROOK….-14
* – HERONSHAW….-16
* – REV IT UP….-18
* – RENDL BEACH….-19
T* – WHO OWNS ME….-25
* – AMERICAN LIFE….-25
HANSUPFORDETROIT….-30

MY PLAY – Happy with my figures and I’m very hopeful the winner is in my top three….Pipe certainly has a very strong hand. Dutch, 20/80 BYGONES SOVEREIGN and those exotics.

CHEPSTOW 2-35

* – SHOTGUN PADDY….+10
HAWKES POINT….+10
* – GAS LINE BOY….+9
* – REBECCA’S CHOICE….+8
* – MONBEG DUDE….+8
AMIGO….+3
* – MOUNTAINOUS….+1
* – SUMMERY JUSTICE….-1
H* – VICTORS SERENADE….-7
* – MIDNIGHT PRAYER….-10
* – WOODFORD COUNTY….-10
* – BENVOLIO….-15
* – HANDY ANDY….-17
EMPEROR’S CHOICE….-28
* – EDMUND KEAN….-30
* – BENBENS….-31
* – MART LANE….-35
* – DARK GLACIER….-40
T* – GLENQUEST….-40
ONE IN A MILAN….-40

MY PLAY – The profiling should be interesting and after the success of last year I’ll be working with that as opposed to my figures. My top rated is both favourite and top weight…they simply do not win this race.

CHEPSTOW 3-10

* – SHOEGAZER….+10
* – QUINCY DES PICTONS….+9
* – RENARD….+8
* – BOB FORD….+8
* – ANAY TURGE….-3
* – FAGO….-15
* – DEPUTY DAN….-19
ULTRAGOLD….-37
HEADLEY’S BRIDGE….-40

MY PLAY – The way my figures have been working this month I’d be a complete plank not to trust them and it’s top three to a dutch, a 20/80 SHOEGAZER and exotics.

WETHERBY 2-40

* – KIE….+4
* – LUCKY LANDING….+3
* – WILDE PASTURES….-9
* – DE BOITRON….-16
T* – FRENCH OPERA….-19
T – BACK TO BRACKA….-21
* – ALDERBROOK LAD….-31
* – ROCKAWANGO….-40

MY PLAY – Low staking here as it’s the epitome of an “off meeting”. Top three to my October Rules.

WETHERBY 3-15

STICKLEBACK….-30
JAC THE LEGEND….-36
ALLEZ COOL….-37
NOTONEBUTTWO….-40
BLUE COVE….-40
WESTWIRE TOBY….-40
DEPORTATION….-40
FREEDOM FLYING….-40
H – LATEST FASHION….-40
T – BAND OF THUNDER….-40

MY PLAY – Absolutely horrendous race. I will not be touching it with a brave pole and I will tell you why. Firstly, none of this motley crew has managed a win n this ground before…they have tried 29 times so far, between them. Secondly, they have, between them, tried 12 times to win over this trip…and not managed it. Lastly….10 times, between them, they have visited Wetherby and gone away with nothing. How can you possibly play such a race?
Best of luck if you get involved.

Kindest regards

Ron

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